Yugo Koshima's Books

The Cost of Future Policy: Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets in the G7

By: Yugo Koshima,Jason Harris,Alexander F. Tieman,Alessandro De Sanctis

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The Cost of Future Policy: Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets in the G7

By: Yugo Koshima,Jason Harris,Alexander F. Tieman,Alessandro De Sanctis

This paper compiles the Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets for all G7 countries and examines their relationship with government borrowing costs. In 2018, all G7 countries have negative Intertemporal Net Financial Worth (INFW), falling short of their intertemporal budget constraint. A decomposition of the evolution of INFW shows that short-term fluctuations are mainly driven by fiscal policy changes, while in the long run demographic changes and health and pension obligations play a larger role. We find that on average a 10 percentage point of GDP increase in INFW reduces the (future) 10-1 year sovereign yield curve spread by 2.8 basis points. This results suggest that financial markets pay attention to governments’ future policy obligations, in addition to its current assets and liabilities.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513573330

ISBN 13

9781513573335

Japan's Public Sector Balance Sheet

By: Yugo Koshima

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Japan's Public Sector Balance Sheet

By: Yugo Koshima

This paper compiles and reviews the evolution of Japan’s Public Sector Balance Sheet (PSBS). In the past, large crossholdings of assets and liabilities within the public sector played a role in sustaining a high level of public debt and low interest rates. The Fiscal Investment and Loan Fund (FILF) channeled all postal deposits and pension savings to financing of public sector borrowing. After the FILF refrom in 2000, however, the Post Bank and pension funds shifted their assets to the portfolio investments and are seeking to maximize risk-adjusted returns. This has changed the implications of crossholdings for public debt management. In the future, population aging is expected to add more pressures on the PSBS, which already saw a considerable decrease of net worth over the last three decades.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513514520

ISBN 13

9781513514529

Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

By: Laura Jaramillo,Aliona Cebotari,Yoro Diallo,Rhea Gupta,Yugo Koshima,Chandana Kularatne,Jeong Dae Lee,Sidra Rehman,Kalin Tintchev,Mr. Kalin I Tintchev,Fang Yang

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Climate Challenges in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

By: Laura Jaramillo,Aliona Cebotari,Yoro Diallo,Rhea Gupta,Yugo Koshima,Chandana Kularatne,Jeong Dae Lee,Sidra Rehman,Kalin Tintchev,Mr. Kalin I Tintchev,Fang Yang

Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) already face higher temperatures than other countries and will be more exposed to extreme heat and weather events going forward. Using innovative approaches, the paper finds that in FCS, climate vulnerability and underlying fragilities—namely conflict, heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture, and weak capacity—exacerbate each other, amplifying the negative impact on people and economies. FCS suffer more severe and persistent GDP losses than other countries due to climate shocks because their underlying fragilities amplify the impact of shocks, in particular in agriculture. At the same time, climate shocks worsen underlying fragilities, namely conflict. Macro-critical adaptation policies are needed to facilitate the immediate response to climate shocks and to build climate resilience over time. Sizeable and sustained international support—especially grants, concessional financing and capacity development—is urgent to avoid worse outcomes, including forced displacement and migration. The IMF is stepping up support to FCS in dealing with climate challenges through carefully tailored policy advice, financing, and capacity development.

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