With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.
The Songs of the South is an anthology first compiled in the second century A.D. Its poems, originating from the state of Chu and rooted in Shamanism, are grouped under seventeen titles and contain all that we know of Chinese poetry's ancient beginnings. The earliest poems were composed in the fourth century B.C. and almost half of them are traditionally ascribed to Qu Yuan.
Chloride-induced corrosion is the most important durability issue of reinforced concrete structures, and the prediction and prevention of chloride-induced corrosion has attracted considerable interest all over the world. Given that chloride penetrates through the concrete cover, the issues concerning its transport are crucial. These include testing methods, prediction, and the prevention of ingress. During the transport process, physical and chemical interaction occurs between chloride and cement hydrates, which in turn affects the further transport, so the transport of chloride and these interactions are closely related and underpin our understanding of chloride-induced corrosion in RC structures. This book provides in-depth discussion of chloride transport and its interaction in cement-based materials, and reviews and summarizes the state of the art. The mechanisms and testing methods for chloride transport, chemical interactions of chloride with cement hydrates, chloride binding isotherms, measurement of penetration depths, factors affecting chloride transport, and modeling of chloride transport are discussed in detail. This book serves as a reference for researchers or engineer, and a textbook for graduate students.
Optimization Theory and Methods can be used as a textbook for an optimization course for graduates and senior undergraduates. It is the result of the author's teaching and research over the past decade. It describes optimization theory and several powerful methods. For most methods, the book discusses an idea’s motivation, studies the derivation, establishes the global and local convergence, describes algorithmic steps, and discusses the numerical performance.
The Songs of the South is an anthology first compiled in the second century A.D. Its poems, originating from the state of Chu and rooted in Shamanism, are grouped under seventeen titles and contain all that we know of Chinese poetry's ancient beginnings. The earliest poems were composed in the fourth century B.C. and almost half of them are traditionally ascribed to Qu Yuan.
The Sinitic Civilization A Factual History through the Lens of Archaeology, Bronzeware, Astronomy, Divination, Calendar and the Annals The book covered the time span of history of the Sinitic civilization from antiquity, to the 3rd millennium B.C. to A.D. 85. A comprehensive review of history related to the Sinitic cosmological, astronomical, astrological, historical, divinatory, and geographical developments was given. All ancient Chinese calendars had been examined, with the ancient thearchs' dates examined from the perspective how they were forged or made up. The book provides the indisputable evidence regarding the fingerprint of the forger for the 3rd century A.D. book Shang-shu (remotely ancient history), and close to 50 fingerprints of the forger of the contemporary version of The Bamboo Annals. Using the watershed line of Qin Emperor Shihuangdi's book burning of 213 B.C., the book rectified what was the original history before the book burning, filtered out what was forged after the book burning, sorted out the sophistry and fables that were rampant just prior to the book burning, and validated the history against the records in the oracle bones, bronzeware, and bamboo slips. The book covers 95-98% and more of the contents in the two ancient history annals of The Spring Autumn Annals and The Bamboo Annals. There are dedicated chapters devoted to interpreting Qu Yuan's poem Asking Heaven (Tian Wen), the mythical book The Legends of Mountains & Seas (Shan Hai Jing), geography book Lord Yu's Tributes (Yu Gong), and Zhou King Muwang's Travelogue (Mu-tian-zi Zhuan). The book has appendices of two calendars: the first anterior quarter remainder calendar (247 B.C.-104 B.C./247 B.C.-85 A.D.) of the Qin Empire, as well as a conversion table of the sexagenary years of the virtual Yin-li (Shang dynasty) quarter remainder calendar versus the Gregorian calendar, that covers the years 2698 B.C. to 2018 A.D. Book I stops about the midpoint of the 242 years covered in Confucius' abridged book The Spring & Autumn Annals (722-481 B.C.). Book II stops at Han Emperor Zhangdi (Liu Da, reign A.D. 76-88; actual reign Aug of A.D. 75-Feb of A.D. 88), with the A.D. 85 adoption of the Sifen-li posterior quarter remainder calendar premised on reverting to the sexagenary years of the virtual Yin-li (Shang dynasty) quarter remainder calendar, a calendar disconnected from the Jupiter's chronogram, that was purportedly invented by the Confucians on basis of Confucius' identifying the 'qi-lin' divine giraffe animal and wrapping up the masterpiece The Spring & Autumn Annals two years prior to death.
She was said to have married a living king of hell — ugly, cruel, and feared by all. On the day of her teleportation, she was pointed at by a man with a knife and unable to move. With her super strong desire to live, her face was as red as a peach. "Prince, I'm so beautiful, are you really willing to part with your knife?" The man smiled, his sword rippling. "Why aren't you willing to part with it?" ... .... She was a modern doctor who had been transported in a car accident. He was the favored king of the living underworld. They had originally thought that they were a fake couple that looked like they were together, but they didn't expect that ...
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