Our lives are composed of millions of choices, ranging from trivial to life-changing and momentous. Luckily, our brains have evolved a number of mental shortcuts, biases, and tricks that allow us to quickly negotiate this endless array of decisions. We don’t want to rationally deliberate every choice we make, and thanks to these cognitive rules of thumb, we don’t need to. Yet these hard-wired shortcuts, mental wonders though they may be, can also be perilous. They can distort our thinking in ways that are often invisible to us, leading us to make poor decisions, to be easy targets for manipulators…and they can even cost us our lives. The truth is, despite all the buzz about the power of gut-instinct decision-making in recent years, sometimes it’s better to stop and say, “On second thought . . .” The trick, of course, lies in knowing when to trust that instant response, and when to question it. In On Second Thought, acclaimed science writer Wray Herbert provides the first guide to achieving that balance. Drawing on real-world examples and cutting-edge research, he takes us on a fascinating, wide-ranging journey through our innate cognitive traps and tools, exposing the hidden dangers lurking in familiarity and consistency; the obstacles that keep us from accurately evaluating risk and value; the delusions that make it hard for us to accurately predict the future; the perils of the human yearning for order and simplicity; the ways our fears can color our very perceptions . . . and much more. Along the way, Herbert reveals the often-bizarre cross-connections these shortcuts have secretly ingrained in our brains, answering such questions as why jury decisions may be shaped by our ancient need for cleanliness; what the state of your desk has to do with your political preferences; why loneliness can literally make us shiver; how drawing two dots on a piece of paper can desensitize us to violence… and how the very typeface on this page is affecting your decision about whether or not to buy this book. Ultimately, On Second Thought is both a captivating exploration of the workings of the mind and an invaluable resource for anyone who wants to learn how to make smarter, better judgments every day.
Unlike the relative uniformity of conventional warfare, the peculiarities of small wars prevent a clear definition of rules and roles for military forces to follow. During the small wars era, aviation was still in its infancy, and the US military had only recently begun battling in the skies. The US Marine Corps recognized that flexibility and ingenuity would be critical to the successful conduct of small wars and thus employed the new technology of aviation. In Biplanes at War: US Marine Corps Aviation in the Small Wars Era, 1915–1934, author Wray R. Johnson provides a riveting history of the marines' use of aviation between the world wars, a time in which young soldiers were volunteering to fly in combat when flying itself was a dangerous feat. Starting with Haiti in 1915, Biplanes at War follows the marines' aviation experiences in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, China, and Nicaragua, chronicling how marines used aircraft to provide supporting fires (e.g., dive-bombing) to ground troops in close contact with irregular opponents, evacuate the sick and wounded, transport people and cargo (e.g., to assist humanitarian operations), and even support elections in furtherance of democracy. After years of expanding the capabilities of airplanes far beyond what was deemed possible, the small wars era ended, and the US Marines Corps transitioned into an amphibious assault force. The legacy of the marines' ability to adapt and innovate during the small wars era endures and provides a useful case study. Biplanes at War sheds light on how the marines pioneered roles and missions that have become commonplace for air forces today, an accomplishment that has largely gone unrecognized in mainstream histories of aviation and air power.
In a challenge to conventional views on modern monetary and fiscal policy, this book presents a coherent analysis of how money is created, how it functions in global exchange rate regimes, and how the mystification of the nature of money has constrained governments, and prevented states from acting in the public interest.
Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions offers an insightful and engaging theory of science that speaks to scholars across many disciplines. Though initially widely misunderstood, it had a profound impact on the way intellectuals and educated laypeople thought about science. K. Brad Wray traces the influences on Kuhn as he wrote Structure, including his 'Aristotle epiphany', his interactions, and his studies of the history of chemistry. Wray then considers the impact of Structure on the social sciences, on the history of science, and on the philosophy of science, where the problem of theory change has set the terms of contemporary realism/anti-realism debates. He examines Kuhn's frustrations with the Strong Programme sociologists' appropriations of his views, and debunks several popular claims about what influenced Kuhn as he wrote Structure. His book is a rich and comprehensive assessment of one of the most influential works in the modern sciences.
This innovative approach to the history of British horse racing is a unique source of information. As well a comprehensive guide to traditional themes, the Encyclopedia provides reference on a broad range of less well-studied issues.
A program for using dreams as a tool for healing loss The universal experience of grief dreams can help us heal after the death of a loved one. T.J. Wray and Ann Back Price show how dreams can be uplifting, affirming, consoling, and inspiring. The authors guide readers in ways to understand and value their dreams, how to keep a grief dream journal, and how to use dreams as tools for healing and consolation. This book is designed to help mourners reclaim some measure of power in navigating the most difficult journey of their lives. And, because it is helpful for any type of loss, Grief Dreams is an ideal condolence gift.
Harry Wray and Seishiro Sugihara transcend the one-sided Tokyo Trial view of the war in an effort to conduct a balanced exchange on historical perception. This will be of interest equally to both those inside and outside Japan who are perplexed by Japan’s “victimization consciousness.” Through this impassioned and heartfelt dialogue, Wray challenges theories embraced by some Japanese who believe that the US simply “used the atomic bombings to make the Soviet Union manageable in the Cold War,” as alleged by the Hiroshima Peace Museum and in Japanese school history textbooks. They ask why it is the Japanese people don’t recognize how the atomic bombings not only spared the further sacrifice of American and Japanese lives by accelerating the end of the war, but also prevented a wide-scale Soviet invasion of the Japanese mainland, had the war continued into the latter half of 1945. While early censorship of writings about Hiroshima and Nagasaki, both outright and self-imposed, continued through the Occupation, Sugihara proposes that, long after the Americans had packed up and gone home, the Foreign Ministry established and nurtured a postwar paradigm which rendered open and critical discussion of war-related issues, such as Pearl Harbor and the atomic bombings, impossible for the Japanese public. It is no wonder then that Japanese attitudes towards the atomic bombings remain mired in victimization myths. Uniquely, Wray and Sugihara attempt to persuade the Japanese to reexamine their attitudes to Hiroshima and Nagasaki, to show that the atomic bombings, perversely, brought a swift end to the war and helped Japan escape the act of partition which afflicted postwar Germany and remains an intractable problem in a divided Korea.
Can the British plan? Sometimes it seems unlikely. Across the world we see grand designs and visionary projects: new airport terminals, nuclear power stations, high-speed railways, and glittering buildings. It all seems an unattainable goal on Britain’s small and crowded island; and yet perhaps this is too pessimistic. For the British have always planned, and much of what they have today is the result of past plans, successfully implemented. Ranging widely, from London’s squares and the new city of Milton Keynes, to ‘High Speed One’, the motorways, and the secret first electronic computers, Ian Wray’s remarkable book puts successful infrastructure plans under the microscope. Who made these plans and what made them stick? How does this reflect the defining characteristics of British government? And what does that say about the individuals who drew them up and saw them through? In so doing the book casts refreshing new light on how big decisions have actually been made, revealing the hidden sources of drive and initiative in British society, as seen through the lens of ‘plans past’. And it asks some searching questions about the mechanisms we might need for successful ‘plans future’, in Britain and elsewhere. Includes foreword by the Right Honourable the Lord Heseltine CH.
Since the referendum, Scottish independence has been captured by conservative forces. Scotland After Britain argues for fidelity to the true meaning of the word independence. It should mean not only a break from the failing British state, but also from the prison of free trade and militarism that has delivered successive crises. Most of all, independence must honestly address the huge injustices of income, wealth and power that continue to define Scottish society, by restoring agency to working class communities and voters. Scotland After Britain shines a spotlight on pro-independence politics since Brexit and the pandemic. The Scottish national question has emerged as the biggest fracture in the British state after Brexit. The independence movement emerged from mass public disenchantment at the status quo, yet the SNP continues governing as if that disenchantment never happened, and the party leadership appears increasingly ambivalent about the risks of demanding independence. Most of all, the British state remains hostile to allowing a second referendum, while the SNP leadership has been unwilling to sanction protest beyond the ballot box. Where do we go from here? Scotland After Britain argues Brexit could force the movement to engage in a reckoning with the true stakes of independence, a process that will inevitably require a breach with the SNP's establishment vision.
William D. Wray presents an in-depth analysis of the origins and institutional growth prior to World War I of Mitsubishi, today Japan's largest industrial group, and the Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK), now the world's leading shipping enterprise. The study, however, is much more than a history of two companies. It provides extensive analysis od decision-making in the Meiji government, the finances of the Imperial House, trading strategies, international commercial diplomacy, and the shipping industry's response to war.
The last two decades have transformed the field of Renaissance studies, and Reconceiving the Renaissance: A Critical Reader maps this difficult terrain. Attending to the breadth of fresh approaches, the volume offers a theoretical overview of current thinking about the period. Collecting in one volume the classic and cutting-edge statements which define early modern scholarship as it is now practised, this book is a one-stop indispensable resource for undergraduates and beginning postgraduates alike. Through a rich array of arguments by the world's leading experts, the Renaissance emerges wonderfully invigorated, while the suggestive shorter extracts, topical questions and engaged editorial introductions give students the wherewithal and encouragement to do some reconceiving themselves.
A Great Leap Forward: Heterodox Economic Policy for the 21st Century investigates economic policy from a heterodox and progressive perspective. Author Randall Wray uses relatively short chapters arranged around several macroeconomic policy themes to present an integrated survey of progressive policy on topics of interest today that are likely to remain topics of interest for many years. - Rejects neoclassical orthodoxy as the appropriate tool for understanding 21st century economic and social life - Considers subjects such as innovation and technological progress - Explores public institutions, global trade, and financial regulation
Saltwater Leadership, Second Edition is about leadership in the maritime environment. The unforgiving, dynamic, and unconquerable nature of the sea requires direct leadership, often with very little margin of error. The unique and common nature of professional life on the sea applies not only to junior naval leaders but also officer and enlisted leaders from the Marines, Coast Guard and Merchant Marines. Based on decades of leadership experiences, Saltwater Leadership covers a wide variety of topics, including basic junior officer leadership, taking care of people, providing forceful backup, leadership and culture, and professional competence.
Sandstones form the backdrop to some of the world's most spectacular scenery, and are found all over the planet and in all climates. Following on from the authors' successful 1992 book, this is the only volume that considers sandstone landforms from a truly global perspective. It describes the wide variety of landforms that are found in sandstone, and discusses the role of lithological variation, chemical weathering and erosional processes in creating these features, with examples drawn from around the world. Climatic and tectonic constraints on the development of sandstone landscapes are also considered. This volume provides a comprehensive assessment of the literature from publications in a range of languages, and is illustrated with over 130 photographs of sandstone features from every continent. It presents a holistic account of sandstone terrain for researchers and graduate students in a variety of fields including geography, geomorphology, sedimentology and geomechanics.
Is planning for America anathema to the pursuit of life, liberty and happiness? Is it true, as ideologues like Friedrich Von Hayek, Milton Friedman, and Ayn Rand have claimed, that planning leads to dictatorship, that the state is wholly destructive, and that prosperity is owed entirely to the workings of a free market? To answer these questions Ian Wray’s book goes in search of an America shaped by government, plans and bureaucrats, not by businesses, bankers and shareholders. He demonstrates that government plans did not damage American wealth. On the contrary, they built it, and in the most profound ways. In three parts, the book is an intellectual roller coaster. Part I takes the reader downhill, examining the rise and fall of rational planning, and looks at the converging bands of planning critics, led on the right by the Chicago School of Economics, on the left by the rise of conservation and the ‘counterculture’, and two brilliantly iconoclastic writers – Jane Jacobs and Rachel Carson. In Part II, eight case studies take us from the trans-continental railroads through the national parks, the Federal dams and hydropower schemes, the wartime arsenal of democracy, to the postwar interstate highways, planning for New York, the moon shot and the creation of the internet. These are stories of immense government achievement. Part III looks at what might lie ahead, reflecting on a huge irony: the ideology which underpins the economic and political rise of Asia (by which America now feels so threatened) echoes the pragmatic plans and actions which once secured America’s rise to globalism.
A new commentary for today's world, The Story of God Bible Commentary explains and illuminates each passage of Scripture in light of the Bible's grand story. The first commentary series to do so, SGBC offers a clear and compelling exposition of biblical texts, guiding everyday readers in how to creatively and faithfully live out the Bible in their own contexts. Its story-centric approach is ideal for pastors, students, Sunday school teachers, and laypeople alike. Each volume employs three main, easy-to-use sections designed to help readers live out God's story: LISTEN to the Story: Includes complete NIV text with references to other texts at work in each passage, encouraging the reader to hear it within the Bible's grand story. EXPLAIN the Story: Explores and illuminates each text as embedded in its canonical and historical setting. LIVE the Story: Reflects on how each text can be lived today and includes contemporary stories and illustrations to aid preachers, teachers, and students. —Joshua— The book of Joshua continues the story of Genesis to Deuteronomy, bringing Israel into the land promised Abraham in Genesis 12. Joshua's emphasis on God’s gift of the land, the conduct of warfare and the treatment of Canaan's inhabitants, and the importance of obedience to the law of Moses all arise out of this long narrative. Edited by Scot McKnight and Tremper Longman III, and written by a number of top-notch theologians, The Story of God Bible Commentary series will bring relevant, balanced, and clear-minded theological insight to any biblical education or ministry.
A broad introduction to algorithms for decision making under uncertainty, introducing the underlying mathematical problem formulations and the algorithms for solving them. Automated decision-making systems or decision-support systems—used in applications that range from aircraft collision avoidance to breast cancer screening—must be designed to account for various sources of uncertainty while carefully balancing multiple objectives. This textbook provides a broad introduction to algorithms for decision making under uncertainty, covering the underlying mathematical problem formulations and the algorithms for solving them. The book first addresses the problem of reasoning about uncertainty and objectives in simple decisions at a single point in time, and then turns to sequential decision problems in stochastic environments where the outcomes of our actions are uncertain. It goes on to address model uncertainty, when we do not start with a known model and must learn how to act through interaction with the environment; state uncertainty, in which we do not know the current state of the environment due to imperfect perceptual information; and decision contexts involving multiple agents. The book focuses primarily on planning and reinforcement learning, although some of the techniques presented draw on elements of supervised learning and optimization. Algorithms are implemented in the Julia programming language. Figures, examples, and exercises convey the intuition behind the various approaches presented.
Analyzes the origins of the derogatory phrase "white trash" by documenting the meanings projected on to poor rural whites in the U.S. from the early 1700s through the early 1900s.
In Eye Movement Disorders in Clinical Practice, a leading expert with over thirty years of teaching experience in neurology and neuro-ophthalmology offers comprehensive instruction on the diagnosis and treatment of all varieties of eye movement disorders. This important new text reflects the importance of correlating clinical signs of disorders in the oculomotor system with their neuroanatomic and neurophysiologic architecture. With its focus on signs and symptoms, the book advances lesion localization of eye movement disorders as the central clinical concern. The reader is also presented with a fresh review of bedside examination techniques in the ER, ICU, and walk-in clinic; productive ways of taking a clinical history; sign interpretation; source lesion localization; and, where appropriate, therapy. Unlike most of the titles on eye movement disorders, this book's chapters are arranged according to objective signs - like ptosis, neuromuscular syndromes, dizziness, vertigo, and syndromes of the medulla - rather than disease entities. This emphasis on the topographic analysis of symptoms and signs is contrary to the prevailing clinical approach in which responsibility for therapy typically drives the clinician to arrive at an etiological diagnosis as rapidly as possible. At risk in this process is nothing less than the art of clinical medicine. One of the aims of this book is to reverse this process, and move clinicians back to the observation and interpretation of signs. The text features over 100 clinical cases, each one challenging the reader to determine the neuroanatomical location of the patient's lesion. This exercise provides the anatomical guidance needed to make critical diagnostic and management decisions in patients who often present with abnormal eye movements. Dynamic and intellectually stimulating, Eye Movement Disorders in Clinical Practice is essential for any reader wanting to better understand eye movement disorders.
Of all the demons, monsters, fiends, and ogres to preoccupy the western imagination in literature, art, and film, no figure has been more feared—or misunderstood--than Satan. But how accurate are the popular images of Satan? How--and why--did this rather minor biblical character morph into the very embodiment of evil? T.J. Wray and Gregory Mobley guide readers on a journey to retrace Satan's biblical roots. Engaging and informative, The Birth of Satan is a must read for anyone who has ever wondered about the origins of the Devil.
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