Wojciech Maliszewski's Books

Resolving China’s Corporate Debt Problem

By: Wojciech Maliszewski,Mr.Serkan Arslanalp,Mr.John C Caparusso,José Garrido,Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Joong S Kang,W. Raphael Lam,Daniel Law,Wei Liao,Ms.Nadia Rendak,Mr.Philippe Wingender,Jiangyan Yu,Ms.Longmei Zhang

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Resolving China’s Corporate Debt Problem

Corporate credit growth in China has been excessive in recent years. This credit boom is related to the large increase in investment after the Global Financial Crisis. Investment efficiency has fallen and the financial performance of corporates has deteriorated steadily, affecting asset quality in financial institutions. The corporate debt problem should be addressed urgently with a comprehensive strategy. Key elements should include identifying companies in financial difficulties, proactively recognizing losses in the financial system, burden sharing, corporate restructuring and governance reform, hardening budget constraints, and facilitating market entry. A proactive strategy would trade off short-term economic pain for larger longer-term gain.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475545282

ISBN 13

9781475545289

Modeling Inflation in Georgia

By: Wojciech Maliszewski

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Modeling Inflation in Georgia

By: Wojciech Maliszewski

The paper explains the behavior of inflation in Georgia in the post-stabilization period. A long-run equation linking prices to money and the exchange rate, as well as a short-run, dynamic equation for inflation are estimated. The inflation equation is stable, points to a dominant role of the exchange rate in the behavior of inflation and shows a low persistence of inflation in Georgia. The equation explains well the behavior of inflation after the Russian crises, when inflation increased sharply but was quickly brought under control, as the National Bank of Georgia kept its monetary policy tight and the exchange rate stable.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

145187491X

ISBN 13

9781451874914

Vietnam

Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap

By: Wojciech Maliszewski

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Vietnam

Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap

By: Wojciech Maliszewski

The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455201324

ISBN 13

9781455201327

Financial Distortions in China

A General Equilibrium Approach

By: Diego Anzoategui,MissMali Chivakul,Wojciech Maliszewski

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Financial Distortions in China

A General Equilibrium Approach

By: Diego Anzoategui,MissMali Chivakul,Wojciech Maliszewski

Widespread implicit guarantees and interest ceilings were major distortions in China’s financial system, contributing to a misallocation of resources. We analyze the impact of removing such frictions in a general equilibrium setting. The results show that comprehensive reforms generate better outcomes than partial ones: removing the deposit rate ceiling alone increases output, but the efficiency of capital allocation does not improve. Removing implicit guarantees improves output through lower cost of capital for private companies and better resource allocation.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513582798

ISBN 13

9781513582795

Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy

By: Allan Dizioli,Mr.Benjamin L Hunt,Wojciech Maliszewski

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Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy

By: Allan Dizioli,Mr.Benjamin L Hunt,Wojciech Maliszewski

China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

147555222X

ISBN 13

9781475552225

Understanding Residential Real Estate in China

By: MissMali Chivakul,Mr.Waikei W. Lam,Xiaoguang Liu,Wojciech Maliszewski,Mr.Alfred Schipke

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Understanding Residential Real Estate in China

By: MissMali Chivakul,Mr.Waikei W. Lam,Xiaoguang Liu,Wojciech Maliszewski,Mr.Alfred Schipke

China’s residential real estate sector plays an important role in the economy and has been a key driver of growth. Since 2014 the sector has softened visibly, reflecting overbuilding across many cities. An orderly adjustment of the sector is welcome. The key questions are how severe the adjustment will be and how long it will last. This paper uses various datasets, an analytical framework to estimate demand and supply conditions, and develops a number of scenarios to determine the oversupply both at the national level and by city tiers. It highlights that the adjustment will be a multiyear process with adverse implications for investment and growth. Smaller cities, as well as those in the Northeast region, face more challenging demand-supply dynamics. The key will be to allow the adjustment to take place, while avoiding a too sharp of an economic slowdown.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484337069

ISBN 13

9781484337066

Experience with Large Fiscal Adjustments

By: Mr.Mark A. Horton,Mr.George C. Tsibouris,Wojciech Maliszewski,Mr.Mark J Flanagan

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Experience with Large Fiscal Adjustments

By: Mr.Mark A. Horton,Mr.George C. Tsibouris,Wojciech Maliszewski,Mr.Mark J Flanagan

When policymakers have little option but to consider a sizable fiscal adjustment, they are confronted by the following questions: Can a large fiscal adjustment be implemented succesfully? How is a large adjustment best designed and implemented? What will be its impact on the economy? This Occasional Paper addresses these questions by describing the experience of countries that have undertaken large fiscal adjustments in the last three decades. It provides operational guidance to policymakers by identifying preconditions, common policy approaches, and institutional arrangements underlying successful and unsuccessful adjustment episodes.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1589064585

ISBN 13

9781589064584

China’s Growth

Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?

By: Wojciech Maliszewski,Ms.Longmei Zhang

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China’s Growth

Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?

By: Wojciech Maliszewski,Ms.Longmei Zhang

The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the ‘finance-neutral’ gap—our measure of the financial cycle—is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow as China moves closer to the technology frontier, but a steadfast implementation of reforms can ensure that China follows the path of the “Asia Tigers” and achieves successful convergence to high-income status.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513504649

ISBN 13

9781513504643

Biographical Dictionary of Central and Eastern Europe in the Twentieth Century

By: Wojciech Roszkowski,Jan Kofman

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Biographical Dictionary of Central and Eastern Europe in the Twentieth Century

By: Wojciech Roszkowski,Jan Kofman

Drawing on newly accessible archives as well as memoirs and other sources, this biographical dictionary documents the lives of some two thousand notable figures in twentieth-century Central and Eastern Europe. A unique compendium of information that is not currently available in any other single resource, the dictionary provides concise profiles of the region's most important historical and cultural actors, from Ivo Andric to King Zog. Coverage includes Albania, Belarus, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Moldova, Ukraine, and the countries that made up Yugoslavia.

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