William T Ziemba's Books

Calendar Anomalies And Arbitrage

By: William T Ziemba

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Calendar Anomalies And Arbitrage

By: William T Ziemba

This book discusses calendar or seasonal anomalies in worldwide equity markets as well as arbitrage and risk arbitrage. A complete update of US anomalies such as the January turn-of-the year, turn-of-the-month, January barometer, sell in May and go away, holidays, days of the week, options expiry and other effects is given concentrating on the futures markets where these anomalies can be easily applied. Other effects that lend themselves to modified buy and hold cash strategies include the presidential election and factor models based on fundamental anomalies. The ideas have been used successfully by the author in personal and managed accounts and hedge funds.

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Page Count

607

Publisher

World Scientific

Published Date

ISBN 10

9814405477

ISBN 13

9789814405478

Exotic Betting At The Racetrack

By: William T Ziemba

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Exotic Betting At The Racetrack

By: William T Ziemba

Exotic Betting at the Racetrack is unique as it covers the efficient-inefficient strategy to price and find profitable racetrack bets, along with handicapping that provides actual bets made by the author on essentially all of the major wagers offered at US racetracks. The book starts with efficiency, accuracy of the win odds, arbitrage, and optimal betting strategies. Examples and actual bets are shown for various wagers including win, place and show, exacta, quinella, double, trifecta, superfecta, Pick 3, 4 and 6 and rainbow pick 5 and 6. There are discussions of major races including the Breeders' Cup, Pegasus, Dubai World Cup and the US Triple Crown from 2012-2018. Dosage analysis is also described and used. An additional feature concerns great horses such as the great mares Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Treve, Beholder and Song Bird. There is a discussion of horse ownership and a tour through arguably the world's top trainer Frederico Tesio and his stables and horses in Italy.Related Link(s)

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Page Count

489

Publisher

World Scientific

Published Date

ISBN 10

9813278803

ISBN 13

9789813278806

Fortune's Formula

The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street

By: William Poundstone

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Fortune's Formula

The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street

By: William Poundstone

In 1956, two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born, gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory—the basis of computers and the Internet—to the problem of making as much money as possible, as fast as possible. Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. Thorp took the "Kelly formula" to Las Vegas. It worked. They realized that there was even more money to be made in the stock market. Thorp used the Kelly system with his phenomenally successful hedge fund, Princeton-Newport Partners. Shannon became a successful investor, too, topping even Warren Buffett's rate of return. Fortune's Formula traces how the Kelly formula sparked controversy even as it made fortunes at racetracks, casinos, and trading desks. It reveals the dark side of this alluring scheme, which is founded on exploiting an insider's edge. Shannon believed it was possible for a smart investor to beat the market—and William Poundstone's Fortune's Formula will convince you that he was right.

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Page Count

399

Publisher

Hill and Wang

Published Date

ISBN 10

0374707081

ISBN 13

9780374707088

Great Investment Ideas

By: William T Ziemba

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Great Investment Ideas

By: William T Ziemba

Great Investment Ideas is a collection of articles published in the Journal of Portfolio Management from 1993 to 2015. The book contains useful ideas for investment management and trading and discusses the methods, results and evaluation of great investors. It also covers important topics such as the effect of errors in means, variances and co-variances in portfolio selection problems, stock market crashes and stock market anomalies, portfolio theory and practice, evaluation theory, etc. This book is a must-have publication for investors and financial experts, researchers and graduate students in finance.

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297

Publisher

World Scientific Publishing Company

Published Date

ISBN 10

9813144386

ISBN 13

9789813144385

Investing In The Modern Age

By: Rachel E S Ziemba,William T Ziemba

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Investing In The Modern Age

By: Rachel E S Ziemba,William T Ziemba

This book discusses many key topics in investment and risk management, the global economic situation and the shift in global investment strategies. It was largely written during the period of 2007-12, one of the most tumultuous times in global financial markets which called into question not only tenets of economic forecasting and also asset allocation and return strategies. It contains studies of how investors lose money in derivative markets, examples of those who did not and how these disasters could have been prevented. The authors draw some conclusions on the impact of the structural shifts currently underway in the global economy as well as how cyclical trends will affect these industries, the globe and key sectors. The authors zoom in on key growth areas, including emerging markets, their interlinkages and financial trends.The book also covers risk arbitrage and mean reversion strategies in financial and sports betting markets, plus incentives, volatility aspects, risk taking and investments strategies used by hedge funds and university endowments. Topics such as stock market crash predictions, asset liability planning models, various players in financial markets and the evaluation of the greatest investors are also discussed.The book presents tools and case studies of real applications for analyzing a wide variety of investment returns and better assessing the risks which many investors have preferred to ignore in the search of returns. Many security market regularities or anomalies are discussed including political party and January effects as is the process of building scenarios and using Kelly and fractional Kelly strategies to optimize returns.

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586

Publisher

World Scientific

Published Date

ISBN 10

9814504769

ISBN 13

9789814504768

Sports Analytics

By: Leonard C Maclean,William T Ziemba

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Sports Analytics

By: Leonard C Maclean,William T Ziemba

This book is a collection of applications of analytic techniques to a number of popular sports including baseball, basketball, hockey, Jai Alai, NFL football and horseracing. We focus on both the statistics of the sporting events and betting strategies on the events. The subject is fascinating as there are many twists and subtle complicated decisions.Sports analytics applies mathematical and statistical methods to important questions in the structure and performance of sporting activities using the same basic methods and approaches as data analysts in other disciplines.Sports games and events are a fruitful area for study and to evaluate betting strategies as there is extensive data and mean reversion. With prices changing continuously, risk arbitrage bets can be made. Moreover, little errors, like a penalty to a player or an error in a call by a referee, can change the score of a game and corresponding betting prices. The collection and analysis of in-game data can inform players, coaches and staff on effective decision making during sporting events.Novel features of the book include: an analysis of who were the greatest baseball batters; analyses of the players most important to team success (and they are not necessarily the best players) in basketball, NFL football and hockey; a tutorial on risk arbitrage and its applications to NFL football and NBA basketball; a discussion of many ad hoc decision rules by coaches and players and what was really optimal; in the racing section we discuss breeding, the analysis of various bets like the Rainbow and ordinary Pick 6, a discussion and betting on the most important races and a visit to the Breeders' Cup with Ed Thorp to demonstrate the place and show system in action.

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Page Count

587

Publisher

World Scientific

Published Date

ISBN 10

9811250227

ISBN 13

9789811250224

The Adventures Of A Modern Renaissance Academic In Investing And Gambling

By: William T Ziemba

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The Adventures Of A Modern Renaissance Academic In Investing And Gambling

By: William T Ziemba

This book tells the story of how financial markets have evolved over time and became increasingly more complex. The author, a successful and experienced trader, who among other things won the 2015 battle of the quants futures contest held in New York, shares how one can navigate today's dangerous financial markets and be successful. Readers at all levels will benefit from his analysis and many real life examples and experiences. The coverage is broad and there is considerable discussion on ways to stay out of trouble, protect oneself and grow one's assets. The author was the first one to do turn of the year January effect trades in the futures markets starting in the beginning of S&P 500 futures trading in 1982. That has been successful and the author explains his ideas and experiences from the beginning in simple markets to the current, very complex markets we have in 2017.The author discusses the various ways that traders and investors lose money in the financial markets. Many examples are provided, including Long Term Capital Management, ENRON, Amarath, Neiderhoffer's funds and many major companies such as Lehman Brothers, Society Generale, Saloman Brothers. This is invaluable to understanding ways to avoid such losses.The author discusses great investors, their methods and evaluation and the authors' work with several of them. Risk arbitrage and mean reversion strategies are described through actual use. Asset-liability models for pension funds, insurance companies and other financial institutions devised by the author are described. The author uses racetrack bias ideas in behavorial finance in trading index futures and options. Large stock market crashes that can be predicted are discussed with several models of the author and others. Many mini crashes including the January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections that are plausible but largely unpredictable are described and how they were dealt with successfully.Along with ways to deal with them, investment in top quality racehorses, oriental carpets, real estate and other interesting investments are covered. The author was instrumental in viewing racing as a stock market. The ideas are used by the top racing syndicates as well as hedge funds.The book proceeds by weaving these aspects of the financial markets in the modern era into a story of the author's academic, professional and personal life. This is told through the people he met and worked with and the academic and personal travel he had all over the world this past half century. The text is simply written with details, sources and references in the notes of each chapter. Details of various important events and how they evolved are described. There are numerous color and black and white photos in the text plus graphs, tables etc. in the notes to tell the story. The teaching and research into various financial and gambling markets takes the reader to interesting places around the world. These include the US and its many stock market ups and downs, Japan when they were ruling the financial world and then they collapsed, the UK visits with lectures, teaching and research work at their great Universities including Cambridge and Oxford, Europe with many activities in France, Italy, Germany and other places, to Asia including discussions about travels to Persia, Turkey, Singapore, Korea, China, Afghanistan, Russia and other countries. Also discussed are visits to U.S. universities including Chicago, MIT, Berkeley, UCLA and Washington. His work with horse racing syndicates took him to Australia and Hong Kong. Crises like those in Greece, US housing and internet and the flash crash are discussed.

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485

Publisher

World Scientific

Published Date

ISBN 10

9813148535

ISBN 13

9789813148536

Optimizing the Aging, Retirement, and Pensions Dilemma

By: Marida Bertocchi,Sandra L. Schwartz,William T. Ziemba

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Optimizing the Aging, Retirement, and Pensions Dilemma

By: Marida Bertocchi,Sandra L. Schwartz,William T. Ziemba

A straightforward guide focused on life cycle investing-namely aging, retirement, and pensions Life cycle investing and the implications of aging, retirement, and pensions continues to grow in importance. With people living longer, the relative and absolute number of retirees is growing while the number of workers contributing to pension funds is declining. This reliable resource develops a detailed economic analysis-at the micro (individual) and macro (economy wide) levels-which addresses issues regarding the economics of an aging population. Topics touched upon include retirement and the associated health care funding of the aged as well as social security and the asset classes that are considered asset-liability choices over time. The probability of achieving adequate return patterns from various investment strategies and asset classes is reviewed Shares rich insights on the aging, retirement, and pensions dilemma An assessment of the resources the real economy will be able to commit to non-workers is provided The three pillars of retirement are social security, company pensions, and private savings. Each of these pillars is confronted with a variety of asset-liability problems, and this book will addresses them.

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Page Count

432

Publisher

John Wiley & Sons

Published Date

ISBN 10

0470377348

ISBN 13

9780470377345

Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them

By: William T Ziemba,Mikhail Zhitlukhin,Sebastien Lleo

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Stock Market Crashes: Predictable And Unpredictable And What To Do About Them

By: William T Ziemba,Mikhail Zhitlukhin,Sebastien Lleo

Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authors’ research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.'Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.

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Page Count

309

Publisher

World Scientific

Published Date

ISBN 10

9813223863

ISBN 13

9789813223868

Problems In Portfolio Theory And The Fundamentals Of Financial Decision Making

By: Leonard C Maclean,William T Ziemba

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Problems In Portfolio Theory And The Fundamentals Of Financial Decision Making

By: Leonard C Maclean,William T Ziemba

This book consists of invaluable introductions, tutorials and problems which are helpful for teaching purposes and have a very broad appeal and usage. The problems cover many aspects of static and dynamic portfolio theory as well as other important subjects such as arbitrage and asset pricing, utility theory, stochastic dominance, risk aversion and static portfolio theory, risk measures, dynamic portfolio theory and asset allocation. This material could be used with important books that cover these topics including MacLean-Ziemba's The Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making, and Ziemba-Vickson's Stochastic Optimization Models in Finance.

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Page Count

212

Publisher

World Scientific Publishing Company

Published Date

ISBN 10

9814759368

ISBN 13

9789814759366

Scenarios for Risk Management and Global Investment Strategies

By: Rachel E. S. Ziemba,William T. Ziemba

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Scenarios for Risk Management and Global Investment Strategies

By: Rachel E. S. Ziemba,William T. Ziemba

This book discusses scenarios for risk management and developing global investment strategies. What are the chances that various future events will occur over time and how should these events and probable occurrence influence investment decisions? Assessing all possible outcomes is fundamental to risk management, financial engineering and investment and hedge fund strategies. A careful consideration of future scenarios will lead to better investment decisions and avoid financial disasters. The book presents tools and case studies around the world for analyzing a wide variety of investment strategies, building scenarios to optimize returns.

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Page Count

334

Publisher

John Wiley & Sons

Published Date

ISBN 10

0470518383

ISBN 13

9780470518380

Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making

By: Leonard C. MacLean,William T. Ziemba

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Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making

By: Leonard C. MacLean,William T. Ziemba

This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).

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Page Count

941

Publisher

World Scientific

Published Date

ISBN 10

9814417351

ISBN 13

9789814417358

Gambling in America

An Encyclopedia of History, Issues, and Society

By: William N. Thompson

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Gambling in America

An Encyclopedia of History, Issues, and Society

By: William N. Thompson

This one-volume reference provides a comprehensive overview of gambling in the Americas, examining the history, morality, market growth, and economics of the gaming industry. This is the most complete encyclopedia of gambling, covering the industry in great detail including the players, the games, the venues, and the surrounding social issues. Updates in this second edition reveal the impact of technological advances on the games, the growing legislation regulating the industry, and the expanding global footprint of gambling across the world—from Manitoba to Montana. Author William N. Thompson postulates on the impact of gambling on local communities and shows how the U.S. gaming industry is tied to the global market, most notably gaming expansion in Macau and Singapore. The book addresses the various forms of gaming, such as casino-based and online gambling, sports betting, and lotteries. Additional content examines the social issue of problem and pathological gambling and addresses the rehabilitation programs available for the mitigation and treatment of gambling problems.

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Page Count

540

Publisher

Bloomsbury Publishing USA

Published Date

ISBN 10

1610699807

ISBN 13

9781610699808

Dr Z's Nfl Guidebook

By: William T Ziemba,Leonard C Maclean

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Dr Z's Nfl Guidebook

By: William T Ziemba,Leonard C Maclean

This guidebook presents historical and new material to assist the reader to understand NFL game strategies and provides a winning betting strategy. The authors, William Ziemba and Leonard MacLean are professors, traders, financial analysts and sports enthusiasts. They covered ideas like the game's strategies, and shared their wealth of personal experience analyzing the regular season, the playoffs and the Super Bowls in the years 2010-2017. The results of their actual betting for the 2009-10 to the 2017-18 seasons are provided. The authors concluded the book with a forecast for the 2018-2019 season. They determine the players most valuable to win the games, discuss crucial decisions and provide prediction methodology. The authors concluded with a forecast of the top teams, players and odds to win the 53rd Super Bowl.

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Page Count

367

Publisher

World Scientific

Published Date

ISBN 10

9813276517

ISBN 13

9789813276512

Pyomo — Optimization Modeling in Python

By: William E. Hart,Carl D. Laird,Jean-Paul Watson,David L. Woodruff,Gabriel A. Hackebeil,Bethany L. Nicholson,John D. Siirola

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Pyomo — Optimization Modeling in Python

By: William E. Hart,Carl D. Laird,Jean-Paul Watson,David L. Woodruff,Gabriel A. Hackebeil,Bethany L. Nicholson,John D. Siirola

This book provides a complete and comprehensive guide to Pyomo (Python Optimization Modeling Objects) for beginning and advanced modelers, including students at the undergraduate and graduate levels, academic researchers, and practitioners. Using many examples to illustrate the different techniques useful for formulating models, this text beautifully elucidates the breadth of modeling capabilities that are supported by Pyomo and its handling of complex real-world applications. This second edition provides an expanded presentation of Pyomo’s modeling capabilities, providing a broader description of the software that will enable the user to develop and optimize models. Introductory chapters have been revised to extend tutorials; chapters that discuss advanced features now include the new functionalities added to Pyomo since the first edition including generalized disjunctive programming, mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints, and bilevel programming. Pyomo is an open source software package for formulating and solving large-scale optimization problems. The software extends the modeling approach supported by modern AML (Algebraic Modeling Language) tools. Pyomo is a flexible, extensible, and portable AML that is embedded in Python, a full-featured scripting language. Python is a powerful and dynamic programming language that has a very clear, readable syntax and intuitive object orientation. Pyomo includes Python classes for defining sparse sets, parameters, and variables, which can be used to formulate algebraic expressions that define objectives and constraints. Moreover, Pyomo can be used from a command-line interface and within Python's interactive command environment, which makes it easy to create Pyomo models, apply a variety of optimizers, and examine solutions.

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Page Count

280

Publisher

Springer

Published Date

ISBN 10

3319588214

ISBN 13

9783319588216

Rock Breaks Scissors

A Practical Guide to Outguessing and Outwitting Almost Everybody

By: William Poundstone

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Rock Breaks Scissors

A Practical Guide to Outguessing and Outwitting Almost Everybody

By: William Poundstone

A practical guide to outguessing everything, from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. Rock Breaks Scissors is mind-reading for real life. Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. Rock Breaks Scissors is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor.

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Page Count

266

Publisher

Little, Brown Spark

Published Date

ISBN 10

0316228087

ISBN 13

9780316228084

The International Encyclopedia of Gambling [2 volumes]

[2 volumes]

By: William N. Thompson

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The International Encyclopedia of Gambling [2 volumes]

[2 volumes]

By: William N. Thompson

The most complete single-source collection on gambling ever assembled gives readers access to the best possible information about one of the fastest growing industries in the world. The International Encyclopedia of Gambling seeks to explain the gambling phenomenon through an in-depth exploration of gambling operations around the world. More than 300 entries reflect the global stretch of the industry as they examine games, venues, players and other leading figures, legal issues, the history of gaming, and the literature on the subject. The work is enhanced with a dozen contributed articles on gambling-related topics, including commentaries on the history and growth of Las Vegas and a description of major law cases involving gambling. Coverage includes Internet gambling and a section incorporating reviews of more than 50 films about gambling.

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Page Count

815

Publisher

Bloomsbury Publishing USA

Published Date

ISBN 10

1598842269

ISBN 13

9781598842265

Fundamentals of Investments

By: Gordon J. Alexander,William F. Sharpe,Jeffery V. Bailey

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Fundamentals of Investments

By: Gordon J. Alexander,William F. Sharpe,Jeffery V. Bailey

This introduction provides a clear framework for understanding and analyzing securities, and covers the major institutional features and theories of investing. While the book presents a thorough discussion of investments, the authors keep the material practical, relevant, and easy to understand. The latest developments in investments are brought to life through the use of tables, graphs, and illustrations that incorporate current market information and academic research. An international content deals directly with international securities and securities markets throughout the book--along with currency management and interest rate parity. Up-to-date "Money Matters" articles reflect the latest real-world developments and are provided throughout each chapter to give readers a sense of how practitioners deal with various investment issues and use techniques. Other coverage includes an array of investment tools--presented through discussions on stocks, bonds, and other securities such as options and futures. A guide to reviewing, forecasting, and monitoring--for individuals preparing to make investments or take the CFA exam.

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Page Count

824

Publisher

Pearson Educación

Published Date

ISBN 10

9702603757

ISBN 13

9789702603757

Dr. Z's Beat the Racetrack

Revised Edition

By: William T. Ziemba,Donald B. Hausch

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Dr. Z's Beat the Racetrack

Revised Edition

By: William T. Ziemba,Donald B. Hausch

This re-issue of the original classic book Beat the Racetrack includes extra material such as analysis of Kentucky Derby results and the effects of pedigree on race results. With clear writing and a wealth of fascinating real-world examples, it shares a proven, easy to learn system that bettors can use to beat the odds and win big at the racetrack.

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