Mathematical modelling and simulation is an increasingly powerful area of mathematics and computer science, which in recent years has been fuelled by the unprecedented access to larger than ever stores of data. These techniques have an increasing number of applications in the professional and political spheres, and people try to predict the results of certain courses of action as accurately as possible. Computing Possible Futures explores the use of models on everyday phenomena such as waiting in lines and driving a car, before expanding the model's complexity to look at how large-scale computational models can help imagine big scale " scenarios like the effect self-driving cars on the US economy. The successes and failures of complex real world problems are examined, and it is shown how few, if any, failures are due to model errors or computational difficulties. It is also shown how real life decision makers have addressed important problems and used their model-based understanding of possible futures to inform these decisions. Written in an entertaining and accessible way, Computing Possible Futures will help those concerned about the futurity of their decisions to understand what fundamentally needs to be done, why it needs to be done, and how to do it.
This book is about people who operate, maintain, design, research, and manage complex systems, ranging from air traffic control systems, process control plants and manufacturing facilities to industrial enterprises, government agencies and universities. The focus is on the nature of the work these types of people perform, as well as the human abilities and limitations that usually enable and sometimes hinder their work. In particular, this book addresses how to best enhance abilities and overcome limitations, as well as foster acceptance of the means to these ends.
An argument that understanding healthcare delivery as a complex adaptive system will help us design a system that yields better health outcomes. Breakthroughs in medical science, innovations in medical technologies, and improvements in clinical practices occur today at an increasingly rapid rate. Yet because of a fragmented healthcare delivery system, many Americans are unable to benefit from these developments. How can we design a system that can provide high-quality, affordable healthcare for everyone? In this book, William Rouse and Nicoleta Serban introduce concepts, principles, models, and methods for understanding, and improving, healthcare delivery. Approaching the topic from the perspectives of engineering and statistics, they argue that understanding healthcare delivery as a complex adaptive system will help us design a system that is more efficient, effective, and equitable. The authors use multilevel simulation models as a quantitative tool for evaluating alternate ways of organizing healthcare delivery. They employ this approach, for example, in their discussions of affordability, a prevention and wellness program, chronic disease management, and primary care accessibility for children in the Medicaid program. They also consider possible benefits from a range of technologies, including electronic health records and telemedicine; data mining as an alternative to randomized trials; conceptual and analytical methodologies that address the complexity of the healthcare system; and how these principles, models, and methods can enable transformational change.
Public-private ecosystems are central to the functioning and provisioning of most essential ecosystems, e.g., security, healthcare, education, and environment. These ecosystems face challenges of governance, diverse constituencies, numerous advocacy organizations, incompatible outcome metrics, and persistent media attention, to name a few. There is a wide range of public and private players involved in operating, sustaining, and investing in these ecosystems, including stakeholders from government, industry, academia, non-governmental organizations and the overall public. Fundamental change requires understanding a wide range of interests and accommodating change strategies accordingly. Transforming these ecosystems easily qualify as "wicked problems," which are social or cultural problems laced with incomplete or contradictory knowledge, large numbers of people and opinions, substantial economic burdens, and the interconnected nature of these problems with other problems. Transforming Public-Private Ecosystems addresses these challenges for four important ecosystems, and provides an integrated perspective for understanding and enabling change. An overall analytic framework is presented and illustrated with 36 case studies of change and innovation"--
Explores the nature of academic enterprises, including why they work the way they do and where such enterprises are headed, with the goal of gaining insights into where change can and will happen This book looks at universities from a whole-enterprise perspective. It explores the steady escalation of the costs of higher education and uses a computational economic model of complex academic enterprises. This model includes component models of research, teaching, administration, and brand value. Understanding the relationships among practices, processes, structure, and ecosystem provides the basis for transforming academia, leveraging its strengths and overcoming its limitations. More specifically, this architecture helps the reader understand how various elements of the enterprise system either enable or hinder other elements of the system, all of which are embedded in a complex behavioral and social ecosystem. Each topic is explored in terms of the levels of the architecture at which it primarily functions. Levers of change within each area are discussed, using many experiences of pursuing such issues in a range of academic enterprises. • Provides a new methodology by taking a more systems-oriented approach to education systems as a whole • Shows how various elements of the enterprise system either enable or hinder other elements of the system • Offers alternative strategies for transformation of academic enterprises Universities as Complex Enterprises: How Academia Works, Why It Works These Ways, and Where the University Enterprise Is Headed is a reference for systems scientists and engineers, economists, social scientists, and decision makers. William B. Rouse is the Alexander Crombie Humphreys Chair within the School of Systems & Enterprises and Director of the Center for Complex Systems and Enterprises at Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey. He is also Professor Emeritus, and former Chair, of the School of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia. Rouse has written hundreds of articles and book chapters, and has authored many books, including most recently Modeling and Visualization of Complex Systems and Enterprises (Wiley, 2015).
Hurriedly preparing his broiler-chicken houses for impending delivery of chicks, "Flanker" Fitzroy is accidentally knocked unconscious. Coming to, disoriented, he discovers he has no memory of whom, or where, he is. A strange, oversized, English-speaking chicken he nicknames MAC takes over, convincing Flanker that he needs his clairvoyance and magical powers to forestall ruin. It seems Flanker has mortgaged his future for semi-obsolete chicken houses and a rundown manor house on a saltwater farm. MAC will guide him and provide the labor. Except for Flanker's lovely and loving wife Miss Lil, prospects are bleak. Yet, bonds of friendship between man and chicken mentor grow as they stave off the mortgage-holder, defeat oyster pirates in a nighttime battle and counter-terrorize the errant cropduster who buzzes the chicken houses, while quieting the evil bankers who want Flanker's hide. Meanwhile, Flanker has a brief tryst with gorgeous Wanda, parties at a nude beach, and is trapped in a riot. Later, he saves his fellow hostages in a robbery, but is severely injured. Recuperating, his past is revealed and his wife's deep love proved, as they triumph over all disaster.
This book comprises a set of stories about being an engineer for many decades and the lessons the author learned from research and practice. These lessons focus on people and organizations, often enabled by technology. The settings range from airplanes, power plants, and communication networks to ecosystems that enable education, healthcare, and transportation. All of these settings are laced with behavioral and social phenomena that need to be understood and influenced. The author’s work in these domains has often led to the question: "Well, why does it work like that?" He invariably sought to understand the bigger picture to find the sources of requirements, constraints, norms, and values. He wanted to understand what could be changed, albeit often with much effort to overcome resistance. He found that higher levels of an ecosystem often provide the resources and dictate the constraints imposed on lower levels. These prescriptions are not just commands. They also reflect values and cultural norms. Thus, the answers to the question were not just technical and economic. Often, the answers reflected eons of social and political priorities. The endeavors related in the book frequently involved addressing emerging realities rather than just the status quo. This book is an ongoing discovery of these bigger pictures. The stories and the lessons related in this book provide useful perspectives on change. The understanding of people and organizations that emerges from these lessons can help to enable transformative change. Fundamental change is an intensely human-centric endeavor, not just for the people and organizations aspiring to change, but also for the people helping them. You will meet many of these people in this book as the stories unfold. The genesis of this book originated in a decision made early in the author’s career. He had developed a habit of asking at the end of each day, "What did I really accomplish today?" This was sometimes frustrating as he was not sure the day had yielded any significant accomplishments. One day it dawned on him that this was the wrong question – He needed to ask, "What did I learn today?" It is always possible to learn, most recently about public health and climate change. In planning this book, the author first thought in terms of accomplishments such as projects conducted, systems built, and articles and books published. He could not imagine this being interesting to readers. Then, it struck him – It is much more interesting to report on what he learned about people and organizations, including how he helped them accomplish their goals. This is a book of stories about how these lessons emerged. In planning this book, the author first thought in terms of accomplishments such as projects conducted, systems built, and articles and books published. He could not imagine this being interesting to readers. Then, it struck him – It is much more interesting to report on what he learned about people and organizations, including how he helped them accomplish their goals. This is a book of stories about how these lessons emerged.
Explains multi-level models of enterprise systems and covers modeling methodology This book addresses the essential phenomena underlying the overall behaviors of complex systems and enterprises. Understanding these phenomena can enable improving these systems. These phenomena range from physical, behavioral, and organizational, to economic and social, all of which involve significant human components. Specific phenomena of interest and how they are represented depend on the questions of interest and the relevant domains or contexts. Modeling and Visualization of Complex Systems and Enterprises examines visualization of phenomena and how understanding the relationships among phenomena can provide the basis for understanding where deeper exploration is warranted. The author also reviews mathematical and computational models, defined very broadly across disciplines, which can enable deeper understanding. Presents a 10 step methodology for addressing questions associated with the design or operation of complex systems and enterprises Examines six archetypal enterprise problems including two from healthcare, two from urban systems, and one each from financial systems and defense systems Provides an introduction to the nature of complex systems, historical perspectives on complexity and complex adaptive systems, and the evolution of systems practice Modeling and Visualization of Complex Systems and Enterprises is written for graduate students studying systems science and engineering and professionals involved in systems science and engineering, those involved in complex systems such as healthcare delivery, urban systems, sustainable energy, financial systems, and national security.
Originally published in 1902, this book provides an extensive survey of the tradition of votive offerings in ancient Greece. Rouse details the various motives behind offerings, including propitiation, tithes, and domestic purposes, drawing on the evidence of inscriptions and ancient eyewitnesses, and also examines ancient votive formulae. Thirteen indices containing an exhaustive list of epigraphical references to votive offerings at various shrines are also included. This well-written and richly-illustrated book will be of value to anyone with an interest in ancient Greek religion and the history of votive offerings.
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