This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.
If you are an Expert, professional, bureaucrat, teacher, professor, Democrat or Republican, liberal, progressive or conservative, consider yourself in any way in the educated classes, the odds are high that everything you believe is wrong. Not everything. Not simple things. Only the most important things. If you are in the majority, then a great deal of what you hold true about the world and of life is false. Here is a small sample of things that majority of educated believe are false, but which are instead true: Science cannot answer every question put to it; It is not always right to correct a wrong; There is no wisdom in crowds; A consensus among elite academics does not prove the belief of the elite academics is true; That you are offended is irrelevant to whether a proposition is true or false; Defining yourself as your sexual desire is nonsensical; Voting does not make the majority position right and the minority position wrong; Voting is a leading cause of discord; Democracy is rarely to be desired; You cannot choose to believe you do not have free will; God exists. These are only some of the ideas and arguments explored in this book. The majority, and that means likely you, are wrong about all of them. This is no idle claim. It will be proved chapter by chapter. Every bad or invalid or unsound argument contains a fallacy or mistake in thinking. Nobody knows the complete list of ways thought can go wrong, and it has even been surmised such a list is endless. History supports this contention. There is ample reason to believe the human race is congenitally insane. Some mistakes are more common than others. Every age has its own favorite forays into fiction, driven by fashion, fad, and fantasy, all of which are enforced by the culture's self-appointed Watchers. The balance of truth versus error shifts in time, yet the current age is more eager than average to ferret away any shiny object it finds and call it precious. Fallacies therefore have tremendous inertia. Some mental misconstructions are permanent fixtures. I have evocative and memorable nicknames, at least for speakers of English, of the most popular and important fallacies of our day. We step through each, showing how it is false. Here are just a few of our age's favorite fallacies: Controversial Fallacy, Non-Fallacy Fallacy, Appeal to Non-Authority, So Yer's Old Man, Bluff & Bluster Fallacy, You Bigot Fallacy, Hate Speech Fallacy, Bureaucrat Fallacy, One True Spartacus Fallacy, Wisdom of Crowds Fallacy, I Can't See Another Way Fallacy; many, many others, including the ever-popular Meta Fallacy. This is a fallacy that says a thing is true because it is a fallacy. Strange as it seems, it is most convincing. More at https: //wmbriggs.com
Reprint of the original, first published in 1871. The publishing house Anatiposi publishes historical books as reprints. Due to their age, these books may have missing pages or inferior quality. Our aim is to preserve these books and make them available to the public so that they do not get lost.
The world's most comprehensive, well documented, and well illustrated book on this subject. With extensive subject and geographic index. 188 photographs and illustrations - mostly color. Free of charge in digital PDF format.
WHAT JUST HAPPENED? The human cost of the emergency response to COVID-19 has far outweighed the benefits. That’s the sobering verdict of a trio of scholars—a biologist, a statistician, and a philosopher— in this comprehensive assessment of the worst panic-induced disaster in history. As the media fanned the flames of panic, government officials and a new elite of scientific experts ignored the established protocols for mitigating a dangerous disease. Instead, they shut down the world economy, closed every school, confined citizens to their homes, and threatened to enforce a regime of extreme social distancing indefinitely. And the American public—amazingly enough—complied without protest. Modestly but relentlessly focused on what we know and don’t know about the coronavirus, Douglas Axe, William M. Briggs, and Jay W. Richards demonstrate in this eye-opening study what real experts can contribute when a pandemic strikes. In the early spring of 2020, the panic of government officials, the hysteria of the media, and the hubris of suddenly powerful scientists produced a worldwide calamity. The Price of Panic is the essential book for understanding what happened and how to avoid repeating our deadly mistakes.
The world's most comprehensive, well documented, and well illustrated book on this subject. With extensive subject and geographic index. 95 photographs and illustrations. Free of charge in digital PDF format.
The world's most comprehensive, well documented, and well illustrated book on this subject. With extensive subject and geographic index. 162 photographs and illustrations - including many early seed catalog covers. Free of charge in digital PDF format.
The world's most comprehensive, well documented, and well illustrated book on this subject. With extensive subject and geographical index. 405 photographs and illustrations - mostly color. Free of charge in digital PDF format on Google Books.
Part of David J. Magee's Musculoskeletal Rehabilitation Series, Athletic and Sport Issues in Musculoskeletal Rehabilitation provides expert insight and clear rehabilitation guidelines to help you manage injuries and special medical needs unique to athletic clients. Contributions from leading physical therapists, athletic trainers, and orthopedic surgeons give you a comprehensive, clinically relevant understanding of common sports-related injuries and help you ensure the most effective therapeutic outcomes. Addresses a broad range of sports-related injuries and conditions Reinforces key concepts with highlighted content and hundreds of detailed illustrations Summarizes essential information for fast, easy reference in class or in clinical settings
Since its first edition over 60 years ago, Rockwood and Green’s Fractures in Adults has been the go-to reference for treating a wide range of fractures in adult patients. The landmark, two-volume tenth edition continues this tradition with two new international editors, a refreshed mix of contributors, and revised content throughout, bringing you fully up to date with today’s techniques and technologies for treating fractures in orthopaedics. Drs. Paul Tornetta III, William M. Ricci, Robert F. Ostrum, Michael D. McKee, Benjamin J. Ollivere, and Victor A. de Ridder lead a team of experts who ensure that the most up-to-date information is presented in a comprehensive yet easy to digest manner.
Thank you for visiting our website. Would you like to provide feedback on how we could improve your experience?
This site does not use any third party cookies with one exception — it uses cookies from Google to deliver its services and to analyze traffic.Learn More.