This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.
If you are an Expert, professional, bureaucrat, teacher, professor, Democrat or Republican, liberal, progressive or conservative, consider yourself in any way in the educated classes, the odds are high that everything you believe is wrong. Not everything. Not simple things. Only the most important things. If you are in the majority, then a great deal of what you hold true about the world and of life is false. Here is a small sample of things that majority of educated believe are false, but which are instead true: Science cannot answer every question put to it; It is not always right to correct a wrong; There is no wisdom in crowds; A consensus among elite academics does not prove the belief of the elite academics is true; That you are offended is irrelevant to whether a proposition is true or false; Defining yourself as your sexual desire is nonsensical; Voting does not make the majority position right and the minority position wrong; Voting is a leading cause of discord; Democracy is rarely to be desired; You cannot choose to believe you do not have free will; God exists. These are only some of the ideas and arguments explored in this book. The majority, and that means likely you, are wrong about all of them. This is no idle claim. It will be proved chapter by chapter. Every bad or invalid or unsound argument contains a fallacy or mistake in thinking. Nobody knows the complete list of ways thought can go wrong, and it has even been surmised such a list is endless. History supports this contention. There is ample reason to believe the human race is congenitally insane. Some mistakes are more common than others. Every age has its own favorite forays into fiction, driven by fashion, fad, and fantasy, all of which are enforced by the culture's self-appointed Watchers. The balance of truth versus error shifts in time, yet the current age is more eager than average to ferret away any shiny object it finds and call it precious. Fallacies therefore have tremendous inertia. Some mental misconstructions are permanent fixtures. I have evocative and memorable nicknames, at least for speakers of English, of the most popular and important fallacies of our day. We step through each, showing how it is false. Here are just a few of our age's favorite fallacies: Controversial Fallacy, Non-Fallacy Fallacy, Appeal to Non-Authority, So Yer's Old Man, Bluff & Bluster Fallacy, You Bigot Fallacy, Hate Speech Fallacy, Bureaucrat Fallacy, One True Spartacus Fallacy, Wisdom of Crowds Fallacy, I Can't See Another Way Fallacy; many, many others, including the ever-popular Meta Fallacy. This is a fallacy that says a thing is true because it is a fallacy. Strange as it seems, it is most convincing. More at https: //wmbriggs.com
The veritable tsunami of anxieties that are affecting individual lives, the increasingly dysfunctional nature of society and the potential catastrophes of global conflict and of climate change, have a common cause. The inability of capitalism or the state to respond to existential crises and internal contradictions is the cause of what William Briggs terms A Cauldron of Anxiety. Briggs defends a Marxist perspective that would challenge this and provides an optimistic vision for the future.
As the sun rises on China and sets on America, the world holds its breath. China, the USA and Capitalism's Last Crusade looks at the rise of China and the decline of the USA but from a different angle. William Briggs argues that this struggle for economic supremacy is being played out against a much bigger backdrop; the decline of the economic structure of capitalism. In this sense, the decline of the USA is portrayed as that larger economic decline in microcosm. Briggs examines the relationship between state and capital, of how capitalism came to dominate the world, and of the historical, political and economic rise of both the USA and China. He shows that the struggle between the two nations has little to do with cultural, historical, demographic, political or ideological differences, but with what they have in common. Despite the portrayal of China as being ‘socialist' it functions as a capitalist economy in the globalised capitalist world. While its journey to capitalism may have differed, the end point is the same and this is why there is such animosity, such conflict, such acrimony between the two states.
Briggs tackles head-on the zone of conflict that Marx never quite got to, though not for lack of ambition. How do nation-states both manage and contest the military-industrial surges of global capitalism? Arguing the novel thesis that Stalin did good work for capitalism, offering its defenders an open goal to score against Marxism, Removing the Stalin Stain presents a clearly argued and outward-facing Marxist analysis of contemporary politics.' Terrell Carver, Professor of Political Theory, University of Bristol, UK Can Marxism emerge from the long shadow cast by Stalinism, and challenge capitalism? There is undoubtedly a growing interest in Marxism and socialism. Opinion polls show a majority that regard socialism as a real option. It is against this reality, and as a contribution to growing debates, that this book has been written. Marxism, as an ideological force and instituted to lead the charge against capitalism, has been poorly served in the past century. Many of its core messages have been obscured. William Briggs gives a rousing defence of Marxism, calling for a return of the working class to the centre of potential struggle. Briggs seeks to heal the damage done to Marxism, in the name of Marxism, over generations past.
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