Ein Klassiker jetzt neu als Broschurausgabe. Das Erstellen von Zukunftsprognosen ist ein millionenschweres Geschaft. Doch haufig entstehen Zweifel an der Zuverlassigkeit der Vorhersagen. Sherden entlarvt falsche Prophezeiungen und trennt die Tatsachen von Trugschlussen, um den Leser zu zeigen, wie man Prognosen am besten nutzt und wie man sich die "Rosinen" herauspickt. Eine faszinierende Lekture, mit einer Unmenge erkennbarer, offensichtlicher Tatsachen und handfester Beispiele. (12/99)
This intriguing and informative probe into the dynamics of unintended consequences reveal the real reasons our best laid plans often go askew in our political, business, and personal lives. Historian and author Daniel Boorstin noted, "The unintended consequences of man's enterprises have and will always be more potent, more widespread, and more influential than those he intended." Today, a Google web search for "unintended consequences" summons nearly two million pages citing the unexpected impacts of government policies, new technologies, management decisions, and the actions of individuals. Unfortunate unintended consequences are becoming increasingly problematic as our world becomes globally and electronically interconnected, causing the results of our decisions to resonate across the globe. In Best Laid Plans, the author examines how any action can have cascading impacts across time, place, and sector, explaining the eight social mechanisms of unintended consequences that complicate matters and often defeat best laid plans. This book will be of great interest to managers, analysts, researchers, or other employees working for businesses, governments, and not-for-profit organizations, as well as general nonfiction readers who delight in learning about how the world works.
From the Egypt of The Exodus, to an Egypt falling under an Islamic revolution... A story that starts in 1350BC and ends tomorrow... In 1350 BC the Israelites are driven from Egypt, their journey through the harsh desert of Sinai, their plight and their story to forever be remembered as the Exodus. In modern day Sinai academic Richard Corrigan discovers a missing German tourist. Suffering from extreme dehydration and talking in an ancient language the tourist recites a prayer to the Egyptian Sun God as he dies. In revolutionary Cairo, the mysterious Elizabeth St. George takes Corrigan to a city morgue. The corpse he is shown is fresh, yet to his trained eye looks to be 3,500 years old. In a leafy London street Jihadist terrorists storm Corrigan's flat. It appears he's got too close... but to what? As Corrigan begins to question how the past can truly affect the present he finds the question changes. Can the present affect the past? Has it already? Sinai, a timeslip thriller for our time Praise for Sinai "Egyptology and quantum physics married up with historical fiction and all the attributes of a modern spy thriller: spies, religious fanatics, secret policemen and secret weapons... a ripping yarn." - The Times "Smethurst scores by never opting for the obvious path, and not laying on the time travel with a trowel. There remains a great sense of mystery." - Birmingham Mail
Ein Klassiker jetzt neu als Broschurausgabe. Das Erstellen von Zukunftsprognosen ist ein millionenschweres Geschaft. Doch haufig entstehen Zweifel an der Zuverlassigkeit der Vorhersagen. Sherden entlarvt falsche Prophezeiungen und trennt die Tatsachen von Trugschlussen, um den Leser zu zeigen, wie man Prognosen am besten nutzt und wie man sich die "Rosinen" herauspickt. Eine faszinierende Lekture, mit einer Unmenge erkennbarer, offensichtlicher Tatsachen und handfester Beispiele. (12/99)
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Differentiated book- It has a historical context with research of the time-This book contains a historical context, which helps us understand this literary work. We must pay special attention to those events that especially influenced the world of culture and art and also to those events that were especially reflected in literature, in the life of its writer or that affected it. There are many examples in which historical events have shaped the content and forms of literature, as well as this has often been the best testimony to the importance of certain events throughout history. This context is formed by everything that, in some way, influences the event when it happens. A fact is always tied to its time: that is, to its time.William T. Sherman (Lancaster, Ohio, February 8, 1820-New York, February 14, 1891) was an American military man, educator, and writer. His celebrity comes from his participation with the rank of general in the United States Civil War (1861-1865), where he received both praise for his efficient use of military strategy, as well as strong questions for his relentless scorched earth policy that he applied in the so-called total war against the enemy. This policy has earned him the qualification, by some authors, of "the first modern general."In 1864, Sherman replaced General Grant as Commander of the Union on the western front of the war. He led the capture of the strategic city of Atlanta, a military success that contributed to the re-election of President Abraham Lincoln. Sherman subsequently marched through Georgia and the Carolinas through small fights and implementing large-scale destruction of the cotton plantations and other infrastructure, with the aim of undermining the capacity and will of the Confederates who continued to fight for their independence. Sherman accepted the surrender of all Confederate armies in the Carolinas
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
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