This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
The early 1950s were a boom time for British aviation. The lessons of six years of war had been learned and much of the research into jet engines, radar and aerodynamics had begun to reach fruition. In Britain, jet engine technology led the world, while wartime developments into swept wing design in Germany and their transonic research program were used to give western design teams a quantum leap in aircraft technology. At English Electric, 'Teddy' Petter's design team were keen to capitalize on the success of their Canberra jet bomber and rose to the challenge of providing a high speed interceptor for the RAF. Martin W. Bowman describes the career of the Lightning in detail using first-hand accounts of what it was like to fly and service this thoroughbred. Illustrated with over 200 color and b/w photographs, appendices listing Lightning squadrons, production totals, individual aircraft histories and with the first in-depth analysis into why a third of all Lightnings were lost, The Men Who Flew the English Electric Lightning is a fine record of the last truly great all-British fighter.
Martin Bowman tells the story of the iconic Cold War fighter from first prototype to the present day, with many previously-unpublished images as well as narrative from the men who flew Britain's finest post-war fighter.
Churches and ecumenical bodies are often criticized for saying too much, or too little, on social and political affairs. But how can churches speak out on such affairs? How can churches participate effectively? Keith Clements questions the present preoccupation with making 'statements', which not only presupposes that a church has ready-made 'answers', but is also symptomatic of modern Western society's obsession with publicity and instant 'solutions' to what are often complex problems. Clements examines such historically famous statements as the German Barmen Declaration of 1934 and the South African Kairos Document of 1985, before exploring the biblical and theological roots of the key motifs of prophesy and discipleship. He suggests that Western churches must continue to listen and learn, not least from the way churches in regions such as South Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe are relearning their roles. Clements concludes that Western churches must be prepared to talk modestly. They must be prepared to be both more disciplined and more imaginative. They must also be prepared to be more theological. Drawing on a wide range of sources, Catholic and Protestant, contemporary and historical, Clements points the way forward for a Christian community learning to speak in the world and to the world.
The 13th Annual Meeting of the Foundation was held in Edinburgh during September 1985. The subject was neuroendocrine molecular biology which brought together leading scientists in the fields of molecular genetics, neuroendocrinology and developmental neuro biology. The conference was most stimulating and as the Proceedings show, novel data presented was of the highest quality. The topics presented were grouped under the headings;, "Molecular Biology of the Nervous System", ''IlIRH - New Perspectives', ''Neuropeptides'', "Oxytocin and Vasopressin", "Transcriptional and Post-Translational Regulation of Neuropeptide Synthesis", "Neuroendocrine Mechanisms at the Cellular Level", "Receptors - Cellular and Molecular Biology" and "Clinical Applications". The
Herbert Henri Jasper is a scientist whose research activities have initiated and encompassed many of the major themes of neuroscience. He has pioneered in single unit recording, chronic neuronal studies, neurochemistry, electroencephalography, and many other disciplines. His students now hold important positions in universities and hospitals around the world. From July 21 to 23, 1986, a symposium entitled Neurotransmitters and Cortical Function: From Molecules to Mind was held in Montreal to honor Professor Jasper and to continue his pioneering efforts. The following chapters originated in that meeting. They summarize the current v vi PREFACE status of our knowledge in some of the fields influenced by Professor Jasper. They share a focus on neurotransmitters in cortical function, where we presume higher mental events originate. Professor Jasper has made contributions to the understanding of three different classes of neuro transmitters: GABA, acetylcholine, and catecholamines. It is an interest in trying to link neu rochemical events to some aspects of complex brain function and behavior that has characterized his work, and it is this philosophy that led to the present symposium to honor him. We dedicate this volume to Professor Jasper and the integrative approach that he has fostered. The Editors Montreal Contents 1. H. H. Jasper, Neuroscientist of Our Century .......................... .
Grounded in the canonical gospels and other New Testament passages, especially Philippians 2:1-11, this study offers an account of humility from a Christian perspective.
Volume II of this book grew out of the author’s work as an economist for the U.S. Congress on the staff of the House Banking Committee under Chairman Wright Patman and his successor, Chairman Henry Reuss; as an analyst for the Congressional Budget Office; and as finance economist for the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Telecommunications, Consumer Protection and Finance. It is a re-examination of the validity of traditional concerns in order to establish the Context for congressional actions to modify the existing regulatory and structural framework.
First published to acclaim in 1992, this book deals with the exploits of Bomber Command during their offensive against German Industry in the Ruhr during World War II. The author begins by describing the role of Bomber Command and goes on to define the Ruhr area and its great importance in terms of industrial output to the Germans. The author provides the statistics for bombers dispatched, the number, which actually got to the targets and those, which never made it for one reason or another. Air Battle of the Ruhr is a complete overview of a major aspect of the air war against mainland Germany a subject that has rarely been dealt with in such depth. This book fills in an important gap in the history of the Royal Air Force.
In How on Earth Did Jesus Become a God? Larry Hurtado investigates the intense devotion to Jesus that emerged with surprising speed after his death. Reverence for Jesus among early Christians, notes Hurtado, included both grand claims about Jesus' significance and a pattern of devotional practices that effectively treated him as divine. This book argues that whatever one makes of such devotion to Jesus, the subject deserves serious historical consideration. Mapping out the lively current debate about Jesus, Hurtado explains the evidence, issues, and positions at stake. He goes on to treat the opposition to -- and severe costs of -- worshiping Jesus, the history of incorporating such devotion into Jewish monotheism, and the role of religious experience in Christianity's development out of Judaism. The follow-up to Hurtado's award-winningLord Jesus Christ (2003), this book provides compelling answers to queries about the development of the church's belief in the divinity of Jesus.
Martin Bowman’s considerable experience as a military historian has spanned over forty years, during which time he has amassed a wealth of material on the participation by RAF and Commonwealth and US 8th and 15th Air Force crews in the series of raids on the cities and oil transportation and industrial targets in the Third Reich, culminating in ‘Round-the-Clock’ bombing by the RAF, operating at night on the largely forgotten Stirling, the gamely Halifax and ultimately the more successful Lancaster, and the US 8th Air Force B-17 Flying Fortress and B-24 Liberator crews by day on a target list so long and wide ranging that it defies the imagination. Hundreds of hours of painstaking and fact-finding research and interviews and correspondence with numerous airmen and women and their relatives, in Britain, America and beyond has been woven into a highly readable and emotional outpouring of life and death in combat over the Third Reich as the men of the RAF and Commonwealth and American air forces describe in their own words the compelling, gripping and thought-provoking narrative of the Combined Bomber Offensive in World War Two, which resulted from the RAF nocturnal onslaught and the American unescorted precision attacks on targets throughout the Reich until the P-51 Mustang escort fighters enabled the 8th to assume the mantle of the leading bombing partner in theatre. February and March 1945 saw the most intense bombing destruction when Nazi defences were minimal or absent and the war was all but over. Final victory in May 1945 came at a high price indeed. Half of the U.S. Army Air Forces' casualties in World War II were suffered by Eighth Air Force, with in excess of 47,000 casualties, with more than 26,000 dead. RAF Bomber Command lost 55,573 men killed out of a total of 125,000 aircrew and 8,403 wounded in action while 9,838 became prisoners of war. RAF and American bomber crews could, therefore be forgiven for thinking they had won a pyrrhic victory; one that had taken such a heavy toll that negated any true sense of achievement, though, if nothing else, the human effort spent by RAF Bomber Command and the Eighth Air Force did pave the way for the Soviet victory in the east.
Walters (political science, Howard U.) uses the tools of comparative politics for examining similar Black and white social institutions and organizations in the US and other countries and for creating a "tailored" Pan African perspective as a criteria with which to describe the interactive relationships between the American Black community and Blacks in Britain, South Africa, Brazil, and the Caribbean. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
TRB's Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Report 3: Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas explores overrun and undershoot accident and incident data conditions relating to these occurrences. The report also includes an assessment of risk in relation to the runway safety area and highlights a set of alternatives to the traditional runway safety area.
“Irishness” has often meant self-dramatization because Ireland is commonly represented, and has historically represented itself, as a nation of storytellers, musicians, and virtuoso performers. Like many of their characters, Joyce and Beckett were superb musicians, creators of performance, and they sought both to evoke and exhaust the resources and rhythms of language and performance. In this groundbreaking work, Alan Warren Friedman explores the rich historical and literary backgrounds of this distinctly Irish phenomenon. He then explains its cultural significance and discusses the major works of both authors, illustrating the diverse ways in which Ireland is enacted. Party Pieces offers a distinct contribution to the critical study of Joyce and Beckett. Unlike other books on the subject of social performance, it places two great modern Irish writers within social and metaphorical conventions that are specifically moored in their Irishness. In so doing the author shows how social performances not only impacted the works of Joyce and Beckett but also were central to their creative processes. Meticulously researched, convincingly argued, and clearly written, Party Pieces is an ideal reference for scholars of Joyce, Beckett, and Irish studies.
Though they work largely out of the public eye, political consultants-"image merchants" and "kingmakers" to candidates-play a crucial role in shaping campaigns. They persuaded Barry Goldwater to run for president, groomed former actor Ronald Reagan for the California governorship, helped derail Bill Clinton's health care initiative, and carried out the swiftboating of John Kerry. As Dennis Johnson argues in this sweeping history of political consulting in the United States, they are essential to modern campaigning, often making positive contributions to democratic discourse, and yet they have also polarized the electorate with their biting messages. During the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, political campaigns were run by local political parties, volunteers, and friends of candidates; but as party loyalties among voters began to weaken, and political parties declined as sources of manpower and strategy, professional consultants swept in to fill the void. Political consulting emerged as a profession in the 1930s with publicists Leone Baxter and Clem Whitaker, the husband and wife team who built their business, in part, with a successful campaign to destroy Upton Sinclair's 1934 bid for governor of California. With roots in advertising and public relations, political consulting has since developed into a highly professionalized business generating hundreds of millions of dollars. In fact, some of the top campaign consulting firms have merged with others to form multinational public relations conglomerates, serving not just candidates but also shaping public advocacy campaigns for businesses and nonprofits. Johnson, an academic who has also worked on campaigns alongside the likes of James Carville and pollster Paul Begala, suffuses his history with the stories of the colorful characters who have come to define the profession of consulting, from its beginning to the present. More than just the story of the making of a political business, Democracy for Hire's wide-ranging history helps us to better understand the very contours of modern American politics.
This book situates Joyce's critical writings within the context of an emerging discourse on the psychology of rhythm, suggesting that A Portrait of the Artist dramatizes the experience of rhythm as the subject matter of the modernist novel. Including comparative analyses of the lyrical prose of Virginia Woolf and the 'cadences' of the Imagists, Martin outlines a new concept of the 'modern period' that describes the interaction between poetry and prose in the literature of the early twentieth century.
Originally published in 2010, this book covers the development of the mortgage market, the residential housing boom and bust that led to the subprime crisis, and the effect of this crisis on financial institutions as well as the stock market panic of 2008. It details the massive government interventions that sought to prevent another Great Depression.
In this white-knuckle journey through a turbulent America, the authors chronicle the events of May 20, 1969--when four members of the revolutionary Black Panther Party trudge through woods outside of New Haven, Connecticut, but only three men return--and the aftermath of those events.
Dennis W. Johnson tells the story of fifteen major laws enacted over the course of two centuries of American democracy, for each looking at the forces and circumstances that led to its enactment—the often tempestuous political struggles, the political players who were key in proposing or enacting the legislation, and the impact of the legislation and its place in American history.
Capitalizing on thousands of feet of accumulated footage captured by combat camera crews during the early years of the Korean War, a small group of US Army officers conceptualized a film series that would widen viewers’ understanding of the service and its mission. Their efforts produced the documentary television series that in late 1951 would become The Big Picture. Although it would take years to fully utilize the emerging technologies and develop the concept into a popularly recognized television series, The Big Picture did evolve into a vehicle whose intention was to help the army tell its story, sell its relevance in the emerging Cold War, and inform and educate its audience about American ideals. Its messages captured the early post-1945 zeitgeist and reflected a national mood that was anticommunist, steeped in foundational principles of American exceptionalism, and trusting of elite leadership. John W. Lemza’s The Big Picture argues that the show, like others produced for television during that time by the armed forces, served as a vehicle for directed propaganda, scripted to send important Cold War messages to both those in uniform and the American public. In this first systematic study of its production and reception history as well as its themes and cultural impact, Lemza shows how the producers incorporated specific Cold War themes, such as anticommunism, into episodes and deployed television’s small screen as the intersection of propaganda and policy during the Cold War period. John Lemza’s study reveals that the longer The Big Picture maintained those themes the more they began to lose their resonance, especially when the cultural and social environment of the United States began changing in the mid-1960s. The series producers chose to continue on a course that was set during the early Cold War years, and the credibility of the show began to suffer. Throughout the course of its two-decade production run, however, The Big Picture cast a big shadow as the premier military program influencing viewing audiences through primetime television and syndication.
With overview essays and more than 400 A-Z entries, this exhaustive encyclopedia documents the history of Asians in America from earliest contact to the present day. Organized topically by group, with an in-depth overview essay on each group, the encyclopedia examines the myriad ethnic groups and histories that make up the Asian American population in the United States. "Asian American History and Culture" covers the political, social, and cultural history of immigrants from East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Pacific Islands, and their descendants, as well as the social and cultural issues faced by Asian American communities, families, and individuals in contemporary society. In addition to entries on various groups and cultures, the encyclopedia also includes articles on general topics such as parenting and child rearing, assimilation and acculturation, business, education, and literature. More than 100 images round out the set.
From the lead prosecutor on the Enron investigation, an eye-opening examination of the explosion of American white-collar crime. If “corporations are people too,” why isn’t anyone in jail? A serious defect in a GM car causes accidents; Enron scams investors out of their money; banks bet on the housing market crash and win. In the race to maximize profits, corporations can behave in ways that are morally outrageous but technically legal. In Capital Offenses, Samuel Buell draws on the unique pairing of his expertise as a Duke University law professor and his personal experience leading the investigation into Enron—the biggest white-collar crime case in U.S. history—to present an in-depth examination of business crime today At the heart of it sits the limited liability corporation, simultaneously the bedrock of American prosperity and the reason that white-collar crime is difficult to prosecute—a brilliant legal innovation that, in its modern form, can seem impossible to regulate or even manage. By shielding employees from legal responsibility, the corporation encourages the risk-taking that drives economic growth. But its special legal status and its ever-expanding scale place daunting barriers in the way of federal and local investigators. Detailing the complex legal frameworks that govern both corporations and the people who carry out their missions, Buell shows that deciphering business crime is rarely black or white. In lucid, thought-provoking prose, he illuminates the depths of the legal issues at stake—delving into fraudulent practices like Ponzi schemes, bad accounting, insider trading, and the art of “loopholing”—showing how every major case and each problem of law further exposes the ambivalence and instability at the core of America’s relationship with its corporations. An expert in criminal law, Buell masterfully examines the limits of too permissive or overzealous prosecution of business crimes. Capital Offenses invites us to take a fresh look at our legal framework and learn how it can be used to effectively discipline corporations for wrongdoing, without dismantling the corporation.
In this book, W. Cleon Skousen reviews the Communist-led mob techniques used by agitated crowds to overpower local police. He encourages police officers to be vigilant and aware of these strategies. He also describes those areas where the police are being politically handicapped in their ability to perform their jobs, and encourages citizens to support their local police officers.
Plane-Strain Slip-Line Fields for Metal-Deformation Processes: A Source Book and Bibliography provides information pertinent to the theory and application of plain-train slip fields to metal-working problems. This book discusses the industrial importance of axial symmetry. Organized into seven chapters, this book begins with an overview of the oldest processes of metal forming, including forging, coining, hammering, drifting, cutting, or parting. This text then examines the basic aspects of the basic theory of classical plasticity. Other chapters consider the governing equations of the plane plastic flow of a rigid-perfectly plastic solid. This book discusses as well the methods for the solution of problems of plane plastic flow of a rigid-perfectly plastic solid. The final chapter deals with the application of the theory of plasticity to the quasi-static plane-strain deformation of an isotropic rigid-perfectly plastic, rate insensitive material. This book is a valuable resource for mechanical engineers, materials scientists, teachers, and research workers.
From Boron Trifluoride to Zinc, the 52 most widely used reagents in organic synthesis are described in this unique desktop reference for every organic chemist. The list of reagents contains classics such as N-Bromosuccinimide (NBS) and Trifluoromethanesulfonic Acid side by side with recently developed ones like Pinacolborane and Tetra-n-propylammonium Perruthenate (TPAP). For each reagent, a concise article provides a brief description of all important reactions for which the reagent is being used, including yields and reaction conditions, an overview of the physical properties of the reagent, its storage conditions, safe handling, laboratory synthesis and purification methods. Advantages and disadvantages of the reagent compared to alternative synthesis methods are also discussed. Reagents have been hand-picked from among the 5000 reagents contained in EROS, the Encyclopedia of Reagents for Organic Synthesis. Every organic chemist should be familiar with these key reagents that can make almost every reaction work.
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