This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for shifts in trend output and the puzzling inconsistency of output dynamics with other cyclical components of production. The ‘output gap’ can be ill-conceived, poorly measured, and inconsistent over time. Persistent losses require more buffers and crisis-avoidance policies, affecting tradeoffs in prudential, macroeconomic, and reserve management policies. The frequency and depth of crises are key determinants of long-term growth and drive a new stylized model of economic development.
Intergenerational Programs: Understanding What We Have Created focuses on research efforts to design, improve, and evaluate activities among younger and older individuals while examining how intergenerational activities impact children, families, and older adult participants. The first single volume to reflect the current state of research knowledge in this area, this vital guide provides practitioners, program developers, researchers, and students with case studies, research findings, and models and examples of productive activities. It will help you guide short- and long-term program development, document activity effectiveness, and ensure program survival during fiscal hardships to give participants constructive and positive experiences. Discussing the opportunity to transfer experience and knowledge of older persons in our society to future generations, Intergenerational Programs: Understanding What We Have Created examines the challenges that may arise in providing meaningful activities for younger and older persons. This helpful book explores research methods, such as qualitative approaches with large, national data sets; observations; program histories; and qualitative analyses of interviews with small numbers of program participants to help you create appropriate activities and foster interdependence between these two age groups. Intergenerational Programs: Understanding What We Have Created will help you research programs and produce successful activity outcomes with such techniques as: using an ethnographic approach, involving a holistic perspective and using field-based data collection methods, to meet the challenges of creating programs among two different age groups and the social problems each group faces using constructivist and sociocultural orientations, which are traditionally applied to a “classroom learning,” to offer new ways of viewing and assessing learning in community-based programs understanding the positive effects grandparents can have on their grandchildren, including helping parents resolve children's behavioral problems and assisting in providing positive environments incorporating knowledge of drug abuse issues, problem-solving skills, feelings of self-worth, and academic goals into programs to benefit youths developing elder-care services in conjunction with businesses to improve the quality of life for the elderly and the workers, as well as decreasing workers’absenteeism, mistakes, and time used to make personal calls to elderly relatives who need careComprehensive and intelligent, this current book contains studies and research that explore the negative and positive aspects of certain activities, allowing you to learn from the experiences of others. This book provides research methods and evaluation measures to help you decide what kinds of activities are needed in order to best benefit participants. As a result, you will be able to create relevant programs, assess their effectiveness, and help join different generations in working together for an improved quality of life for all group members.
Drawing significantly on both classic and contemporary research, Nonverbal Communication speaks to today’s students with modern examples that illustrate nonverbal communication in their lived experiences. This new edition, authored by three of the foremost scholars in nonverbal communication, builds on the approach pioneered by Burgoon, Buller and Woodall which focused on both the features and the functions that comprise the nonverbal signaling system. Grounded in the latest multidisciplinary research and theory, Nonverbal Communication strives to remain very practical, providing both information and application to aid in comprehension.
Over the last 40 years, autobiography in Arab societies has moved away from exemplary life narratives and toward more unorthodox techniques such as erotic memoir writing, postmodernist self-fragmentation, cinematographic self-projection and blogging. Valerie Anishchenkova argues that the Arabic autobiographical genre has evolved into a mobile, unrestricted category arming authors with narrative tools to articulate their selfhood. Reading works from Arab nations such as Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Syria and Lebanon, Anishchenkova connects the century's rapid political and ideological developments to increasing autobiographical experimentation in Arabic works. The immense scope of her study also forces consideration of film and online forms of self-representation and offers a novel theoretical framework to these various modes of autobiographical cultural production.
Valerie Polakow spent a year traveling around the country listening to low-income women from diverse backgrounds tell their stories of struggle, resilience, distress, and occasional success as they encountered ongoing child care crises. The resulting work is both a compelling account of the lived realities of the child care crisis, and an incisive critique of public policy that points to the United States as an outlier in the international community. Drawing on historical and international perspectives, Polakow creates a groundbreaking analysis of child care as a human right, persuasively arguing for a universal child care system. “Who Cares for Our Children? is one of the most disturbing books I have read in a long time. It should have a major impact on debates over poverty and social policy.” —From the Foreword by Barbara Ehrenreich, author of Nickel and Dimed “In this beautifully written and provocative volume, Polakow deftly steps aside and lets real mothers, struggling against the odds to keep their families safe and sound, speak for themselves about what they need. This book delivers a timely message: Child care should be viewed as a human right.” —Martha F. Davis, Northeastern University School of Law “A collection of moving and often chilling personal narratives. . . . Who Cares for Our Children? is a powerful and well-documented analysis of the worlds of low-income families.” —Beth Blue Swadener, Arizona State University “Thoroughly researched and grounded in a heartfelt sympathy for the struggles of families . . . that face such painful choices and dilemmas in meeting the needs of their children.” —James Garbarino, Loyola University Chicago
This book explores medieval society's fascination with the cross-dressed woman and examines a wide variety of sources which record attempts to overcome gender hierarchy and illustrate a desire to re-examine social gender identities.
The most comprehensive, multi-disciplinary text in the field, Cummings Otolaryngology: Head and Neck Surgery, 7th Edition, provides detailed, practical answers and easily accessible clinical content on the complex issues that arise for otolaryngologists at all levels, across all subspecialties. This award-winning text is a one-stop reference for all stages of your career—from residency and board certification through the challenges faced in daily clinical practice. Updated content, new otology editor Dr. Howard W. Francis, and new chapters and videos ensure that this 7th Edition remains the definitive reference in today's otolaryngology. - Brings you up to date with the latest minimally invasive procedures, recent changes in rhinology, and new techniques and technologies that are shaping patient outcomes. - Contains 12 new chapters, including Chronic Rhinosinusitis, Facial Pain, Geriatric Otology, Middle Ear Endoscopic Surgery, Pediatric Speech Disorders, Pediatric Cochlear Implantation, Tongue-Ties and Lip Ties, Laryngotracheal Clefts, and more. - Covers recent advances and new approaches such as the Draf III procedure for CRS affecting the frontal recess, endoscopic vidian and posterior nasal neurectomy for non-allergic rhinitis, and endoscopic approaches for sinonasal and orbital tumors, both extra- and intraconal. - Provides access to 70 key indicator (Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education Key Indicator Procedures), and surgical videos – an increase of 43% over the previous edition. - Offers outstanding visual support with 4,000 high-quality images and hundreds of quick-reference tables and boxes. - Enhanced eBook version included with purchase. Your enhanced eBook allows you to access all of the text, figures, and references from the book on a variety of devices.
Put the world's most well-known kidney reference to work in your practice with the 11th Edition of Brenner & Rector's The Kidney. This two-volume masterwork provides expert, well-illustrated information on everything from basic science and pathophysiology to clinical best practices. Addressing current issues such as new therapies for cardiorenal syndrome, the increased importance of supportive or palliative care in advanced chronic kidney disease, increasing live kidney donation in transplants, and emerging discoveries in stem cell and kidney regeneration, this revised edition prepares you for any clinical challenge you may encounter. - Extensively updated chapters throughout, providing the latest scientific and clinical information from authorities in their respective fields. - Lifespan coverage of kidney health and disease from pre-conception through fetal and infant health, childhood, adulthood, and old age. - Discussions of today's hot topics, including the global increase in acute kidney injury, chronic kidney disease of unknown etiology, cardiovascular disease and renal disease, and global initiatives for alternatives in areas with limited facilities for dialysis or transplant. - New Key Points that represent either new findings or "pearls" of information that are not widely known or understood. - New Clinical Relevance boxes that highlight the information you must know during a patient visit, such as pertinent physiology or pathophysiology. - Hundreds of full-color, high-quality photographs as well as carefully chosen figures, algorithms, and tables that illustrate essential concepts, nuances of clinical presentation and technique, and clinical decision making. - A new editor who is a world-renowned expert in global health and nephrology care in underserved populations, Dr. Valerie A. Luyckx from University of Zürich. - Board review-style questions to help you prepare for certification or recertification. - Enhanced eBook version included with purchase, which allows you to access all of the text, figures, and references from the book on a variety of devices
Take a peek beneath the bonnet. Browse the inspirational fiction section of your local bookstore, and you will likely find cover after cover depicting virtuous young women cloaked in modest dresses and wearing a pensive or playful expression. They hover innocently above sun-drenched pastures or rustic country lanes, often with a horse-drawn buggy in the background—or the occasional brawny stranger. Romance novels with Amish protagonists, such as the best-selling trailblazer The Shunning by Beverly Lewis, are becoming increasingly popular with a largely evangelical female audience. Thrill of the Chaste is the first book to analyze this growing trend in romance fiction and to place it into the context of contemporary literature, religion, and popular culture. Valerie Weaver-Zercher combines research and interviews with devoted readers, publishers, and authors to produce a lively and provocative examination of the Amish romance novel. She discusses strategies that literary agents and booksellers use to drive the genre’s popularity. By asking questions about authenticity, cultural appropriation, and commodification, Thrill of the Chaste also considers Amish fiction’s effects on Amish and non-Amish audiences alike.
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
This will help us customize your experience to showcase the most relevant content to your age group
Please select from below
Login
Not registered?
Sign up
Already registered?
Success – Your message will goes here
We'd love to hear from you!
Thank you for visiting our website. Would you like to provide feedback on how we could improve your experience?
This site does not use any third party cookies with one exception — it uses cookies from Google to deliver its services and to analyze traffic.Learn More.