This urgent and eye-opening book makes the case that protecting humanity's future is the central challenge of our time. If all goes well, human history is just beginning. Our species could survive for billions of years - enough time to end disease, poverty, and injustice, and to flourish in ways unimaginable today. But this vast future is at risk. With the advent of nuclear weapons, humanity entered a new age, where we face existential catastrophes - those from which we could never come back. Since then, these dangers have only multiplied, from climate change to engineered pathogens and artificial intelligence. If we do not act fast to reach a place of safety, it will soon be too late. Drawing on over a decade of research, The Precipice explores the cutting-edge science behind the risks we face. It puts them in the context of the greater story of humanity: showing how ending these risks is among the most pressing moral issues of our time. And it points the way forward, to the actions and strategies that can safeguard humanity. An Oxford philosopher committed to putting ideas into action, Toby Ord has advised the US National Intelligence Council, the UK Prime Minister's Office, and the World Bank on the biggest questions facing humanity. In The Precipice, he offers a startling reassessment of human history, the future we are failing to protect, and the steps we must take to ensure that our generation is not the last. "A book that seems made for the present moment." —New Yorker
About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.
About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.
This urgent and eye-opening book makes the case that protecting humanity's future is the central challenge of our time. If all goes well, human history is just beginning. Our species could survive for billions of years - enough time to end disease, poverty, and injustice, and to flourish in ways unimaginable today. But this vast future is at risk. With the advent of nuclear weapons, humanity entered a new age, where we face existential catastrophes - those from which we could never come back. Since then, these dangers have only multiplied, from climate change to engineered pathogens and artificial intelligence. If we do not act fast to reach a place of safety, it will soon be too late. Drawing on over a decade of research, The Precipice explores the cutting-edge science behind the risks we face. It puts them in the context of the greater story of humanity: showing how ending these risks is among the most pressing moral issues of our time. And it points the way forward, to the actions and strategies that can safeguard humanity. An Oxford philosopher committed to putting ideas into action, Toby Ord has advised the US National Intelligence Council, the UK Prime Minister's Office, and the World Bank on the biggest questions facing humanity. In The Precipice, he offers a startling reassessment of human history, the future we are failing to protect, and the steps we must take to ensure that our generation is not the last. "A book that seems made for the present moment." —New Yorker
A foundational account of a new construction in the p-adic Langlands correspondence Motivated by the p-adic Langlands program, this book constructs stacks that algebraize Mazur’s formal deformation rings of local Galois representations. More precisely, it constructs Noetherian formal algebraic stacks over Spf Zp that parameterize étale (φ, Γ)-modules; the formal completions of these stacks at points in their special fibres recover the universal deformation rings of local Galois representations. These stacks are then used to show that all mod p representations of the absolute Galois group of a p-adic local field lift to characteristic zero, and indeed admit crystalline lifts. The book explicitly describes the irreducible components of the underlying reduced substacks and discusses the relationship between the geometry of these stacks and the Breuil–Mézard conjecture. Along the way, it proves a number of foundational results in p-adic Hodge theory that may be of independent interest.
In this insightful book, you'll learn from the best data practitioners in the field just how wide-ranging -- and beautiful -- working with data can be. Join 39 contributors as they explain how they developed simple and elegant solutions on projects ranging from the Mars lander to a Radiohead video. With Beautiful Data, you will: Explore the opportunities and challenges involved in working with the vast number of datasets made available by the Web Learn how to visualize trends in urban crime, using maps and data mashups Discover the challenges of designing a data processing system that works within the constraints of space travel Learn how crowdsourcing and transparency have combined to advance the state of drug research Understand how new data can automatically trigger alerts when it matches or overlaps pre-existing data Learn about the massive infrastructure required to create, capture, and process DNA data That's only small sample of what you'll find in Beautiful Data. For anyone who handles data, this is a truly fascinating book. Contributors include: Nathan Yau Jonathan Follett and Matt Holm J.M. Hughes Raghu Ramakrishnan, Brian Cooper, and Utkarsh Srivastava Jeff Hammerbacher Jason Dykes and Jo Wood Jeff Jonas and Lisa Sokol Jud Valeski Alon Halevy and Jayant Madhavan Aaron Koblin with Valdean Klump Michal Migurski Jeff Heer Coco Krumme Peter Norvig Matt Wood and Ben Blackburne Jean-Claude Bradley, Rajarshi Guha, Andrew Lang, Pierre Lindenbaum, Cameron Neylon, Antony Williams, and Egon Willighagen Lukas Biewald and Brendan O'Connor Hadley Wickham, Deborah Swayne, and David Poole Andrew Gelman, Jonathan P. Kastellec, and Yair Ghitza Toby Segaran
Python is a remarkably powerful dynamic programming language used in a wide variety of situations such as Web, database access, desktop GUIs, game and software development, and network programming. Fans of Python use the phrase "batteries included" to describe the standard library, which covers everything from asynchronous processing to zip files. The language itself is a flexible powerhouse that can handle practically any application domain. This task-based tutorial on Python is for those new to the language and walks you through the fundamentals. You'll learn about arithmetic, strings, and variables; writing programs; flow of control, functions; strings; data structures; input and output; and exception handling. At the end of the book, a special section walks you through a longer, realistic application, tying the concepts of the book together.
Want to tap the power behind search rankings, product recommendations, social bookmarking, and online matchmaking? This fascinating book demonstrates how you can build Web 2.0 applications to mine the enormous amount of data created by people on the Internet. With the sophisticated algorithms in this book, you can write smart programs to access interesting datasets from other web sites, collect data from users of your own applications, and analyze and understand the data once you've found it. Programming Collective Intelligence takes you into the world of machine learning and statistics, and explains how to draw conclusions about user experience, marketing, personal tastes, and human behavior in general -- all from information that you and others collect every day. Each algorithm is described clearly and concisely with code that can immediately be used on your web site, blog, Wiki, or specialized application. This book explains: Collaborative filtering techniques that enable online retailers to recommend products or media Methods of clustering to detect groups of similar items in a large dataset Search engine features -- crawlers, indexers, query engines, and the PageRank algorithm Optimization algorithms that search millions of possible solutions to a problem and choose the best one Bayesian filtering, used in spam filters for classifying documents based on word types and other features Using decision trees not only to make predictions, but to model the way decisions are made Predicting numerical values rather than classifications to build price models Support vector machines to match people in online dating sites Non-negative matrix factorization to find the independent features in a dataset Evolving intelligence for problem solving -- how a computer develops its skill by improving its own code the more it plays a game Each chapter includes exercises for extending the algorithms to make them more powerful. Go beyond simple database-backed applications and put the wealth of Internet data to work for you. "Bravo! I cannot think of a better way for a developer to first learn these algorithms and methods, nor can I think of a better way for me (an old AI dog) to reinvigorate my knowledge of the details." -- Dan Russell, Google "Toby's book does a great job of breaking down the complex subject matter of machine-learning algorithms into practical, easy-to-understand examples that can be directly applied to analysis of social interaction across the Web today. If I had this book two years ago, it would have saved precious time going down some fruitless paths." -- Tim Wolters, CTO, Collective Intellect
A hip-hop mindset is a set of professional practices that respects and values being both original and innovative. It is a professional approach that welcomes new ways of knowing, being and doing. Creativity is central. Hip-hop habits of mind are marked by high levels of drive, hunger, confidence, and self-worth. Hip-hop culture also demands an ethic of excellence. We command attention. We claim our space. In other words we own the spaces that we occupy. We also celebrate our greatness--brag, boast, pose. These are all necessary forms of self-love. But hip-hop is also a space of honor, integrity, kinship and grace. Most importantly, the hip-hop mindset gives us all (students, educators or any professional) the permission to show up in life as your full authentic self and to shine in your own culturally unique way. It gives us freedom"--
A critical examination of James Lovelock's controversial Gaia hypothesis One of the enduring questions about our planet is how it has remained continuously habitable over vast stretches of geological time despite the fact that its atmosphere and climate are potentially unstable. James Lovelock's Gaia hypothesis posits that life itself has intervened in the regulation of the planetary environment in order to keep it stable and favorable for life. First proposed in the 1970s, Lovelock's hypothesis remains highly controversial and continues to provoke fierce debate. On Gaia undertakes the first in-depth investigation of the arguments put forward by Lovelock and others—and concludes that the evidence doesn't stack up in support of Gaia. Toby Tyrrell draws on the latest findings in fields as diverse as climate science, oceanography, atmospheric science, geology, ecology, and evolutionary biology. He takes readers to obscure corners of the natural world, from southern Africa where ancient rocks reveal that icebergs were once present near the equator, to mimics of cleaner fish on Indonesian reefs, to blind fish deep in Mexican caves. Tyrrell weaves these and many other intriguing observations into a comprehensive analysis of the major assertions and lines of argument underpinning Gaia, and finds that it is not a credible picture of how life and Earth interact. On Gaia reflects on the scientific evidence indicating that life and environment mutually affect each other, and proposes that feedbacks on Earth do not provide robust protection against the environment becoming uninhabitable—or against poor stewardship by us.
This work has been revised and updated to provide a comprehensive treatment of database design for commercial database products and their applications. The book covers the basic foundation of design as well as more advanced techniques, and also incorporates coverage of data warehousing and OLAP (On-Line Analytical Processing), data mining, object-relational, multimedia, and temporal/spatial design.
This is the first comprehensive, yet clearly presented, account of statistical methods for analysing spherical data. The analysis of data, in the form of directions in space or of positions of points on a spherical surface, is required in many contexts in the earth sciences, astrophysics and other fields, yet the methodology required is disseminated throughout the literature. Statistical Analysis of Spherical Data aims to present a unified and up-to-date account of these methods for practical use. The emphasis is on applications rather than theory, with the statistical methods being illustrated throughout the book by data examples.
Through such everyday articles as linen shirts, wigs, silver teaspoons, pottery plates and engravings, Barnard evokes a striking variety of lives and attitudes. Possessions, he shows, even horses and dogs, highlighted and widened divisions, not only between rich and poor, women and men, but also between Irish Catholics and the Protestant settlers. Displaying fresh evidence and unexpected perspectives, the book throws new light on Ireland during a formative period. Its discoveries, set within the context of the 'consumer revolution' gripping Europe and North America, allow Ireland for the first time to be integrated into discussions of the pleasures and pains of consumerism."--BOOK JACKET.
In Bush League Boys sportswriter Toby Smith relies upon fascinating oral histories to recall the home runs, screen money, and dust storms that characterized the glory days of post-World War II baseball in the Southwest."--Ron Briley, author of The Baseball Film in Postwar America: A Critical Study, 1948-1962
Based on twenty years of global research, this is the first comprehensive reference on crop genetic diversity as it is maintained on farmland around the world. Showcasing the findings of seven experts representing the fields of ecology, crop breeding, genetics, anthropology, economics, and policy, this invaluable resource places farmer-managed crop biodiversity squarely in the center of the science needed to feed the world and restore health to our productive landscapes. It will prove to be an essential tool in the training of agricultural and environmental scientists seeking the solutions necessary to ensure healthy, resilient ecosystems for future generations.
Dead Men Risen, winner of the prestigious Orwell Prize for Books, is the epic story of a beleaguered British battle group fighting desperately to prevent the Taliban from seizing Afghanistan's Helmand province just as the U.S. Marines arrive to take over. Bestselling author Toby Harnden describes how men from the coal mining valleys and slate quarry villages of Wales found themselves in the most intense combat faced by British troops for a generation. Underequipped and overstretched, the fighting prowess of the Welsh Guards in the killing fields of Sangin and Nawa awed the U.S. Marines. NATO commander General Stanley McChrystal, who was awaiting a response to his urgent request to President Barack Obama for more troops, hailed their "burn-in-your-gut passion." Harnden was on the ground with the Welsh Guards in Helmand in 2009. He gained access to a trove of secret military documents and conducted nearly three hundred interviews in Afghanistan, England, Wales, and the United States to produce this timeless and profound account of men at war. Commanding the Welsh Guards was Lieutenant Colonel Rupert Thorneloe, a passionate believer in the justness of the war who was dismayed by the military and political incompetence surrounding it. In chilling detail, Harnden reveals how and why Thorneloe—the first British battalion commander to die in action since the 1982 Falklands War—was killed by an IED during Operation Panther’s Claw. By the time the fighting was over, almost no rank had been spared. From the searing heat of the poppy fields and the mud compounds of Helmand to the dreaded knock on the door back home, the reader is transported there. Harnden weaves the experiences of the soldiers, their historical forbears and the flawed NATO strategy into a masterly narrative. No other book about modern conflict succeeds on so many levels. Dead Men Risen is essential for anyone who wants to understand the reality of the Afghan war for the U.S and its allies.
Television Studies: The Basics is a lively introduction to the study of a powerful medium. It examines the major theories and debates surrounding production and reception over the years and considers both the role and future of television. Topics covered include: broadcasting history and technology institutions and ownership genre and content audiences Complete with global case studies, questions for discussion, and suggestions for further reading, this is an invaluable and engaging resource for those interested in how to study television.
As the healthcare environment changes, the need for outcomes-based tre atment planning becomes even more critical. This book guides the reade r through current outcomes-based research as it pertains to surgery. F irst, it gives a complete overview of the practice of evidence-based s urgery (EBS), with topics such as treatment planning, policy issues, a nd ethical issues. Then it gives practical, step-by-step advice on the methodology of EBS, with chapters on study design, outcomes measures, adjustments for complications and comorbidities, cost, and data sourc es. Last, it publishes the results of numerous respected EBS studies.
Why do students take writing classes? Why is writing important? If you are a good writer, you with succeed in school and in life." The Blair Handbook, Fifth Edition, offers the best coverage of the writing process and writing across the curriculum. Your handbook is one of the most important tools you have to improve your writing. This essential reference to be used for a lifetime also gives you and your instructors access to valuable resources, including a Web site and more! Go to www.prenhall.com/fulwiler to find tutoring, self-grading exercises, instructional videos, and much more!
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