1. 1 Motivations Deciding is a very complex and difficult task. Some people even argue that our ability to make decisions in complex situations is the main feature that distinguishes us from animals (it is also common to say that laughing is the main difference). Nevertheless, when the task is too complex or the interests at stake are too important, it quite often happens that we do not know or we are not sure what to decide and, in many instances, we resort to a decision support technique: an informal one-we toss a coin, we ask an oracle, we visit an astrologer, we consult an expert, we think-or a formal one. Although informal decision support techniques can be of interest, in this book, we will focus on formal ones. Among the latter, we find some well-known decision support techniques: cost-benefit analysis, multiple criteria decision analysis, decision trees, . . . But there are many other ones, sometimes not presented as decision support techniques, that help making decisions. Let us cite but a few examples. • When the director of a school must decide whether a given student will pass or fail, he usually asks each teacher to assess the merits of the student by means of a grade. The director then sums the grades and compares the result to a threshold. • When a bank must decide whether a given client will obtain a credit or not, a technique, called credit scoring, is often used.
Formal decision and evaluation models are so widespread that almost no one can pretend not to have used or suffered the consequences of one of them. This book is a guide aimed at helping the analyst to choose a model and use it consistently. A sound analysis of techniques is proposed and the presentation can be extended to most decision and evaluation models as a "decision aiding methodology".
This work is primarily designed for any person or organization in charge of assessment of the quality of natural resources and of pollution prevention.
Le père avait tout compris, il a raccroché à quarante cinq ans. Bien vu, il est mort à cinquante neuf. Quatorze ans de retraite dans sa cabane avec son herbe haute...et ses quatre fraises. Le temps, il l'aura suspendu à sa façon, en grand philosophe, au moment ou il pouvait encore boire son canon en regardant avec son sourire et son oeil clair tout ce qui ne le fatiguait pas: un oiseau qui passe, un frigo qui fait du frais...l'herbe qui pousse...Bref, un scientifique qui économisait son coeur souvent sollicité par un refus absolu de toutes formes de régimes.
Tout d'abord il y a ceux qui arnaquent volontairement, par le biais de sites internet, de petites annonces. Ensuite il y a les arnaques dont on n'est pas sûr que ce soient des arnaques. Je m'explique, ce qui est du vol dans un pays, n'est pas forcément du vol dans un autre pays. Un autre type d'arnaque concerne les arnaques de coeur. La plupart du temps elles ne sont pas répréhensibles puisque les auteurs, mêmes connus, n'habitent pas en France. Généralement les auteurs de ces arnaques résident en Afrique ou en Asie. Il s'agit d'une arnaque aux sentiments mais il n'y a pas vol puisque la personne arnaquée donne de l'argent de son plein gré.Ils veulent votre argent. Ils n'ont aucune morale. Et ils ne reculeront devant rien.
1. 1 Motivations Deciding is a very complex and difficult task. Some people even argue that our ability to make decisions in complex situations is the main feature that distinguishes us from animals (it is also common to say that laughing is the main difference). Nevertheless, when the task is too complex or the interests at stake are too important, it quite often happens that we do not know or we are not sure what to decide and, in many instances, we resort to a decision support technique: an informal one-we toss a coin, we ask an oracle, we visit an astrologer, we consult an expert, we think-or a formal one. Although informal decision support techniques can be of interest, in this book, we will focus on formal ones. Among the latter, we find some well-known decision support techniques: cost-benefit analysis, multiple criteria decision analysis, decision trees, . . . But there are many other ones, sometimes not presented as decision support techniques, that help making decisions. Let us cite but a few examples. • When the director of a school must decide whether a given student will pass or fail, he usually asks each teacher to assess the merits of the student by means of a grade. The director then sums the grades and compares the result to a threshold. • When a bank must decide whether a given client will obtain a credit or not, a technique, called credit scoring, is often used.
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