Theo Eicher's Books

International Economics

By: Theo Eicher,John H. Mutti,Michelle H. Turnovsky

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International Economics

By: Theo Eicher,John H. Mutti,Michelle H. Turnovsky

Thought-provoking and clearly explained, the new edition provides students of international economics and international business with a rigorous explanation of global economic theory and policy, both current trends and historic developments. It explores key models through case studies and review questions, enabling students to challenge the reporting of economic events by press and government alike. Split into 2 parts – International Trade and International Finance – the text explains conceptual building blocks before applying them to current events and controversies. Key issues discussed include: the influence of transportation costs economies of scale and the new economic geography the evaluation of preferential trade agreements european Economic and Monetary Union the integration of international financial markets international financial crises, China and other emerging economies. Fully illustrated with tables and figures to allow students to visualise the issues discussed, the lively prose gives this book a refreshing approach. An accompanying website also provides context and coverage of the international financial crisis of October 2008, including the so-called ‘credit crunch’ and the collapse of some banking institutions.

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1130

Publisher

Routledge

Published Date

ISBN 10

1135979669

ISBN 13

9781135979669

Forecasts in Times of Crises

By: Theo S. Eicher,David J. Kuenzel,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou,Charis Christofides

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Forecasts in Times of Crises

By: Theo S. Eicher,David J. Kuenzel,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou,Charis Christofides

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias, efficiency, and information content to find that IMF forecasts add substantial informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of nominal GDP, public investment, private investment, the current account, net transfers, and government expenditures) exhibit significant forecast bias. Forecasts for low-income countries are the main drivers of forecast bias and inefficiency, reflecting perhaps larger shocks and lower data quality. When we decompose the forecast errors into their sources, we find that forecast errors for private consumption growth are the key contributor to GDP growth forecast errors. Similarly, forecast errors for non-interest expenditure growth and tax revenue growth are crucial determinants of the forecast errors in the growth of fiscal budgets. Forecast errors for balance of payments growth are significantly influenced by forecast errors in goods import growth. The results highlight which macroeconomic aggregates require further attention in future forecast models for countries in crises.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484346815

ISBN 13

9781484346815

In Search of WTO Trade Effects

Preferential Trade Agreements Promote Trade Strongly, But Unevenly

By: Theo S. Eicher,Christian Henn

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In Search of WTO Trade Effects

Preferential Trade Agreements Promote Trade Strongly, But Unevenly

By: Theo S. Eicher,Christian Henn

The literature measuring the impact of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTA) and WTO membership on trade flows has produced remarkably diverse results. Rose's (2004) seminal paper reports a range of specifications that show no WTO effects, but Subramanian and Wei (2007) contend that he does not fully control for multilateral resistance (which could bias WTO estimates). Subramanian and Wei (2007) address multilateral resistance comprehensively to report strong WTO trade effects for industrialized countries but do not account for unobserved bilateral heterogeneity (which could inflate WTO estimates). We unify these two approaches by accounting for both multilateral resistance and unobserved bilateral heterogeneity, while also allowing for individual trade effects of PTAs. WTO effects vanish and remain insignificant throughout once multilateral resistance, unobserved bilateral heterogeneity, and individual PTA effects are introduced. The result is robust to the use of alternative definitions and coding conventions for WTO membership that have been employed by Rose (2004), Tomz et al. (2007), or by Subramanian and Wei's (2007).

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451871783

ISBN 13

9781451871784

Institutions, Development, and Economic Growth

By: Theo S. Eicher,Cecilia García-Peñalosa

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Institutions, Development, and Economic Growth

By: Theo S. Eicher,Cecilia García-Peñalosa

Discussing how and why institutions influence growth, this volume provides an overview of the literature on the impact of institutions on growth. It considers theoretical and empirical relationships between institutions and growth.

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309

Publisher

MIT Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0262050811

ISBN 13

9780262050814

Inequality and Growth

Theory and Policy Implications

By: Theo S. Eicher,Stephen J. Turnovsky

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Inequality and Growth

Theory and Policy Implications

By: Theo S. Eicher,Stephen J. Turnovsky

Essays exploring the relationship between economic growth and inequality and the implications for policy makers.

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343

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MIT Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0262050692

ISBN 13

9780262050692

Forecasts in Times of Crises

By: Theo S. Eicher,David J. Kuenzel,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou,Charis Christofides

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Forecasts in Times of Crises

By: Theo S. Eicher,David J. Kuenzel,Mr.Chris Papageorgiou,Charis Christofides

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International Monetary Fund

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1484346815

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9781484346815

Book's by Theo Eicher

International Economics

International Economics

Forecasts in Times of Crises

Forecasts in Times of Crises

In Search of WTO Trade Effects

In Search of WTO Trade Effects

Institutions, Development, and Economic Growth

Institutions, Development, and Economic Growth

Inequality and Growth

Inequality and Growth

Forecasts in Times of Crises

Forecasts in Times of Crises

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