Complex mathematical and computational models are used in all areas of society and technology and yet model based science is increasingly contested or refuted, especially when models are applied to controversial themes in domains such as health, the environment or the economy. More stringent standards of proofs are demanded from model-based numbers, especially when these numbers represent potential financial losses, threats to human health or the state of the environment. Quantitative sensitivity analysis is generally agreed to be one such standard. Mathematical models are good at mapping assumptions into inferences. A modeller makes assumptions about laws pertaining to the system, about its status and a plethora of other, often arcane, system variables and internal model settings. To what extent can we rely on the model-based inference when most of these assumptions are fraught with uncertainties? Global Sensitivity Analysis offers an accessible treatment of such problems via quantitative sensitivity analysis, beginning with the first principles and guiding the reader through the full range of recommended practices with a rich set of solved exercises. The text explains the motivation for sensitivity analysis, reviews the required statistical concepts, and provides a guide to potential applications. The book: Provides a self-contained treatment of the subject, allowing readers to learn and practice global sensitivity analysis without further materials. Presents ways to frame the analysis, interpret its results, and avoid potential pitfalls. Features numerous exercises and solved problems to help illustrate the applications. Is authored by leading sensitivity analysis practitioners, combining a range of disciplinary backgrounds. Postgraduate students and practitioners in a wide range of subjects, including statistics, mathematics, engineering, physics, chemistry, environmental sciences, biology, toxicology, actuarial sciences, and econometrics will find much of use here. This book will prove equally valuable to engineers working on risk analysis and to financial analysts concerned with pricing and hedging.
Milo and his friends are out to join the coolest club the Barvard School ever saw...but the Robotics Club advisor is none other than the infamous Mrs. Bell! Will Milo and his pals manage to get to their competition and take revenge on their evil club advisor? Written in simple Spanish suitable for beginners and reluctant readers, this book tells an unpredictable and engaging story using fewer than 300 unique words, including many easily recognizable cognates. The book emphasizes subtle repetition of the highest frequency words and grammar points in the language.
This book looks at Terrys of Cork with particular reference to settlement patterns of Terrys in the City, and the Baronies of Barrymore, Cork, and Imokilly, between 1600 and 2000. This area was selected after preliminary examination found that there are instances of close and interchangeable links between urban and rural settlements of Terrys within this area. It will also examine Terrys who emigrated from Cork and settled in France, Spain, the United States, England and Australia.
The decade of space exploration and new rights for women and African Americans. The decade as a pivot of change in world history. The end on The Beatles. Oscar winners were 'Patton' (1970, 'The Godfather' (1972) and 'Kramer vs. Kramer' (1979). Best-selling groupd include The Eagles and Led Zepp;in. The Best-selling rock stars were Elton John and Alice Cooper.
A selection of content from the entire Color Harmony library offers readers the most comprehensive reference book on the usage of color available today. Included are swatches and material for designers and all types of artists looking for inspiration and guidance to ensure the right color choices for every project.
A complete film guide to all of your films and television shows that pertain to WWII. Included are every WWII film produced throughout the world. Historical and informative. Stories behind the Hollywood Canteen, USO shows, War Bond drives, those who served or were classified as 4F during the war. Many interested stories!
This thoroughly updated edition provides a balanced review of the core methods and the latest research on animal learning and human memory. The relevance of basic principles is highlighted throughout via everyday examples to ignite student interest, along with more traditional examples from human and animal laboratory studies. Individual differences in age, gender, learning style, cultural background, or special abilities (such as the math gifted) are highlighted within each chapter to help students see how the principles may be generalized to other subject populations. The basic processes of learning – such as classical and instrumental conditioning and encoding and storage in long-term memory in addition to implicit memory, spatial learning, and remembering in the world outside the laboratory – are reviewed. The general rules of learning are described along with the exceptions, limitations, and best applications of these rules. The relationship between the fields of neuropsychology and learning and memory is stressed throughout. The relevance of this research to other disciplines is reflected in the tone of the writing and is demonstrated through a variety of examples from education, neuropsychology, rehabilitation, psychiatry, nursing and medicine, I/O and consumer psychology, and animal behavior. Each chapter begins with an outline and concludes with a detailed summary. A website for instructors and students accompanies the book. Updated throughout with new research findings and examples the new edition features: A streamlined presentation for today’s busy students. As in the past, the author supports each concept with a research example and real-life application, but the duplicate example or application now appears on the website so instructors can use the additional material to illustrate the concepts in class. Expanded coverage of neuroscience that reflects the current research of the field including aversive conditioning (Ch. 5) and animal working memory (Ch. 8). More examples of research on student learning that use the same variables discussed in the chapter, but applies them in a classroom or student’s study environment. This includes research that applies encoding techniques to student learning, for example: studying: recommendations from experts (Ch. 1); the benefits of testing (Ch. 9); and Joshua Foer’s Moonwalking with Einstein, on his quest to become a memory expert (Ch. 6). More coverage of unconscious learning and knowledge (Ch. 11). Increased coverage of reinforcement and addiction (Ch. 4), causal and language learning (Ch. 6), working memory (WM) and the effects of training on WM, and the comparative evolution of WM in different species (Ch. 8), and genetics and learning (Ch. 12).
Since 'The Night of the Living Dead, ' screen Zombies have become increasingly bizarre, bloodthirsty, yes even cannibalistic. A complete film guide to all your favorite undead, zombie, and the living dead films. Interesting stories behind the scenes and a list of my favorite zombie films. One thing is for sure - Zombies in various forms remain very much alive, in the movies and in audiences' imagination - like yours and mine! I want to eat your brains!
In 1939, the Oregon Webfoots, coached by the visionary Howard Hobson, stormed through the first NCAA basketball tournament, which was viewed as a risky coast-to-coast undertaking and perhaps only a one-year experiment. Seventy-five years later, following the tournament’s evolution into a national obsession, the first champions are still celebrated as “The Tall Firs.” They indeed had astounding height along the front line, but with a pair of racehorse guards who had grown up across the street from each other in a historic Oregon fishing town, they also played a revolutionarily fast-paced game. Author Terry Frei’s track record as a narrative historian in such books as the acclaimed Horns, Hogs, and Nixon Coming, plus a personal connection as an Oregon native whose father coached football at the University of Oregon for seventeen seasons, makes him uniquely qualified to tell this story of the first tournament and the first champions, in the context of their times. Plus, Frei long has been a fan of Clair Bee, the Long Island University coach who later in life wrote the Chip Hilton Sports Series books, mesmerizing young readers who didn’t know the backstory told here. In 1939, the Bee-coached LIU Blackbirds won the NCAA tournament’s rival, the national invitation tournament in New York—then in only its second year, and still under the conflict-of-interest sponsorship of the Metropolitan Basketball Writers Association. Frei assesses both tournaments and, given the myths advanced for many years, his conclusions in many cases are surprising. Both events unfolded in a turbulent month when it was becoming increasingly apparent that Hitler's belligerence would draw Europe and perhaps the world into another war . . . soon. Amid heated debates over the extent to which America should become involved in Europe's affairs this time, the men playing in both tournaments wondered if they might be called on to serve and fight. Of course, as some of the Webfoots would demonstrate in especially notable fashion, the answer was yes. It was a March before the Madness.
The Institute of Ecology at the University of Georgia is recognized globally as an outstanding ecological research centre. The evolution of the Institute of Ecology paralleled the emergence of ecology as a major discipline along with the environmental awareness movement during the last half of the 20th century. Holistic Science: The Evolution of the Georgia Institute of Ecology (1940-2000) assists the reader in understanding not only the challenges, opportunities, and personalities that are bound with the history of the Georgia Institute of Ecology, but also the challenges and obstacles that are involved in establishing an effective interdisciplinary research programme within traditionally fragmented boundaries. Scholars and policy makers increasingly recognize that holistic approaches are needed to address major environmental issues and problems in the 21st century.
Marketing Communications: A Brand Narrative Approach is a mainstream, student-driven text which gives prominence to the driving force of all Marketing Communications: the imperative of Branding. The book aims to engage students in an entertaining, informative way, setting the conceptual mechanics of Marketing Communications in a contemporary, dynamic context. It includes key current trends such as: Brand narrative approach - Cases such as Dove, Harley-Davidson, Nike and World of War Craft feature real-life, salient examples which are engaging for students and reflect the growth of co-authored brand ‘stories’ to help build and maintain brands by customer engagement through meaningful dialogues. Media neutral/multi-media approach - This text has a sound exploration of online and offline synergy combining one-message delivery and multi-media exposures, through examples of companies and political campaigns using ‘non-traditional’ media to reach groups not locking into ‘normal channels’. This brand new text features an impressive mixture of real-life brand case studies underpinned with recent academic research and market place dynamics. The format is structured into three sections covering analysis, planning and implementation and control of Marketing Communications. Using full colour examples of brands, and student-friendly diagrams, the book acknowledges that the modern student learns visually as well as through text. ***COMPANION WEBSITE - www.marketing-comms.com ***
Forced to provide for his family from the age of 8 and thrown out of his home into a bitter Moscow winter at age 12, cellist Gregor Piatigorsky began his career as an archetypal struggling artist, using secondhand and borrowed instruments. When the October Revolution forced his escape to Warsaw, he enjoyed initial success with the Warsaw Philharmonic. Relocating to Berlin a few months later, he again struggled in poverty before eventually emerging as solo cellist with the Berlin Philharmonic. Settling in the United States during World II, Piatigorsky continued a brilliant career that cemented his place as one of the twentieth century's greatest musicians. This all-embracing chronicle of Piatigorsky's tempestuous life and career finally reveals the full life story of a musical legend.
Campbell's Operative Orthopaedics, by Drs. S. Terry Canale and James H. Beaty, continues to define your specialty, guiding you through when and how to perform every state-of-the-art procedure that's worth using. With hundreds of new procedures, over 7,000 new illustrations, a vastly expanded video collection, and new evidence-based criteria throughout, it takes excellence to a new level...because that is what your practice is all about. Consult this title on your favorite e-reader with intuitive search tools and adjustable font sizes. Elsevier eBooks provide instant portable access to your entire library, no matter what device you're using or where you're located. Achieve optimal outcomes with step-by-step guidance on today's full range of procedures from Campbell’s Operative Orthopaedics - the most trusted and widely used resource in orthopedic surgery - authored by Drs. S. Terry Canale, James H. Beaty, and 42 other authorities from the world-renowned Campbell Clinic. Access the complete contents online with regular updates, view all the videos, and download all the illustrations at www.expertconsult.com. See how to proceed better than ever before with 45 surgical videos demonstrating hip revision, patellar tendon allograft preparation, open reduction internal fixation clavicle fracture, total shoulder arthroplasty, total elbow arthroplasty, and more - plus over 7,000 completely new step-by-step illustrations and photos commissioned especially for this edition. Make informed clinical choices for each patient, from diagnosis and treatment selection through post-treatment strategies and management of complications, with new evidence-based criteria throughout. Utilize the very latest approaches in hip surgery including hip resurfacing, hip preservation surgery, and treatment of hip pain in the young adult; and get the latest information on metal-on-metal hips so you can better manage patients with these devices. Improve your total joint arthroplasty outcomes by reviewing the long-term data for each procedure; and consider the pros and cons of new developments in joint implant technology, including "customized" implants and their effect on patient outcomes. Implement new practices for efficient patient management so you can accommodate the increasing need for high-quality orthopaedic care in our aging population.
As the world's youth population continues to grow and interact globally in an instant through blogging, texting, and social networking, youth ministry is adapting in equal fashion. Authors Terry Linhart and David Livermore offer advice that's substantiated by more than twenty prominent worldwide youth leaders: be prepared. Global Youth Ministry is the first textbook to recognize the phenomenon of global youth ministry and to coordinate leading youth ministry voices in a discussion of the theological, theoretical, sociocultural, and historical issues that shape ministries around the world. Traditionally, students of international youth ministries have had to wade through a range of sources, perspectives, and agendas. This versatile text distills all that, and focuses on real-world experiences, challenges, and issues that are part of international ministries. This book is essential reading for undergraduate and graduate-level students and youth ministry leaders who have a heart for missions, social awareness and spiritual empathy, and a desire to serve young people around the world.
The story about Hollywood Monsters, vampires, zombies, werew;lfs, phantoms, mummies, and ghosts of literature - and how they went Hollywood. Classic monsters are primarily the creatures of legend, touched by the supernatural or created by the madness of men who ventured where no man should go, the good old monsters who lurked in gloomy settings of Central European villages, ancient castles and tombs, moulding mansions and stone laboratories filled mazes of bewilding equipment in dark nights and violent storms. From A to Z which inspired by Edgar Allan Poe, Bram Stoker and Mary Shelley.
The past several decades have seen profound changes in the political landscapes of advanced industrial societies. This volume assesses key political developments and links them to underlying socioeconomic and cultural forces. These forces include the growth of a well-educated middle class, the moderating of bipolar class divisions between wealthy capitalists and struggling workers, and the accelerated rise of new media technologies (especially television) as potent tools shaping the terms of public discussion. Related political transformations include the spread of new social movements on feminist, environmental, and civil liberties issues; economic concerns focusing more on growth, taxes, and middle class programs than on redistribution; the fracturing of core left and right political ideologies; and the growing centrality of electronic media as carriers of political opinions and rhetoric. The past several decades have seen profound changes in the political landscapes of advanced industrial societies. This volume assesses key political developments and links them to underlying socioeconomic and cultural forces. These forces include the growth of a well-educated middle class, the moderating of bipolar class divisions between wealthy capitalists and struggling workers, and the accelerated rise of new media technologies (especially television) as potent tools shaping the terms of public discussion. Related political transformations include the spread of new social movements on feminist, environmental, and civil liberties issues; economic concerns focusing more on growth, taxes, and middle class programs than on redistribution; the fracturing of core left and right political ideologies; and the growing centrality of electronic media as carriers of political opinions and rhetoric. In their introduction, Terry Clark and Michael Rempel pull together many seemingly disparate political changes to construct a clear, synthetic framework, identifying eight core components of postindustrial politics. Part Two examines shifts in underlying cultural values. It features a lively exchange between different contributors over whether apolitical, materialistic values have risen or declined since the 1960s. Part Three offers an in-depth look at the political views and party allegiances of the growing middle classes and Part Four examines some of todays most divisive issues.Although primarily adopting a cross-national perspective, Citizen Politics in Post-Industrial Societies includes several case studies of politics in the United States and one in Japan. Unique in its synthetic vision, this volume will stimulate and challenge readers from across the political and theoretical spectrum.
2004 – Harvey L. Johnson Award – Southwest Council of Latin American Studies In the tumultuous decades following Mexico's independence from Spain, religion provided a unifying force among the Mexican people, who otherwise varied greatly in ethnicity and socioeconomic status. Accordingly, religion and the popular cultures surrounding it form the lens through which Terry Rugeley focuses this cultural history of southeast Mexico from independence (1821) to the rise of the dictator Porfirio Díaz in 1876. Drawing on a wealth of previously unused archival material, Rugeley vividly reconstructs the folklore, beliefs, attitudes, and cultural practices of the Maya and Hispanic peoples of the Yucatán. In engagingly written chapters, he explores folklore and folk wisdom, urban piety, iconography, and anticlericalism. Interspersed among the chapters are detailed portraits of individual people, places, and institutions, that, with the archival evidence, offer a full and fascinating history of the outlooks, entertainments, and daily lives of the inhabitants of southeast Mexico in the nineteenth century. Rugeley also links this rich local history with larger events to show how macro changes in Mexico affected ordinary people.
The Paradox of Plenty explains why, in the midst of two massive oil booms in the 1970s, oil-exporting governments as different as Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, Algeria, and Indonesia chose common development paths and suffered similarly disappointing outcomes. Meticulously documented and theoretically innovative, this book illuminates the manifold factors—economic, political, and social—that determine the nature of the oil state, from the coherence of public bureaucracies, to the degree of centralization, to patterns of policy-making. Karl contends that oil countries, while seemingly disparate, are characterized by similar social classes and patterns of collective action. In these countries, dependence on petroleum leads to disproportionate fiscal reliance on petrodollars and public spending, at the expense of statecraft. Oil booms, which create the illusion of prosperity and development, actually destabilize regimes by reinforcing oil-based interests and further weakening state capacity. Karl's incisive investigation unites structural and choice-based approaches by illuminating how decisions of policymakers are embedded in institutions interacting with domestic and international markets. This approach—which Karl dubs "structured contingency"—uses a state's leading sector as the starting point for identifying a range of decision-making choices, and ends by examining the dynamics of the state itself.
As an autobiography, The Distant Glow traces the story of my life to the rough and rigorous way of life in Corella, Bohol my birthplace. Descending from generations of very poor and illiterate ancestors, I exceeded my parents grade three education by finishing grade six and graduating as elementary school valedictorian. Because my parents could not afford to send me to high school in the city, I stayed out of school for six years, helping my father on the farm and my mother in household chores. One of several backbreaking works I used to do was climbing several coconut trees, about 50 feet in height, to tap the trees (sanggutan) for tuba, a coconut juice that yields mildly alcoholic drink. I used to climb 20 coconut trees every morning, noon and evening, mount over top, sit on one of the palms and tap the juice. One evening after sunset, while atop the sanggutan, I saw a glow, a distant glow. I muttered to myself: Someday, Ill find out what causes that glow. I equated that statement to my goals in life. I did find out what caused the distant glow. Other distant glows appeared and I reached most of them with hard work and having a dream. When the owners of a private school offered me an opportunity to go to their school free of tuition, provided that I maintained the first place standing in the class honor roll, I went to high school, starting at age 20. To help shoulder the other costs of going to high school in the city, I paid my room and board with service: scrubbing and polishing the floor, fetching water from an artesian well and gathering firewood every weekend for the landlord family. With all the hardship, I maintained the tuition-free deal and graduated from high school as class valedictorian.
Terry Boyle unveils the eccentric and bizarre in these mini-histories of Ontario's towns and cities. The colourful characters, Native legends, and incredible tales that make up our province's fascinating past come alive. From Bancroft, Baldoon, and Brighton to Timmins, Toronto, and Trenton, find out more about the Ontario you thought you knew.
A Complete Film Guide to motion pictures and television shows that pertain to WWII. Facts and stories about Hollywood personal that served in the Armed Forces, War Bond drives, USO shows,Hollywood Canteen and those who were ruled 4 F during the war. Complete history of world cinema during the years of the war. As well as other interesting facts are also included. Featuring shorts, cartoons, documentaries, and feature films in the second volume L-Z. Don't forget the first volume A-K edition.
Mass Migration in the World-System brings to light the multiple experiences of migrants across different zones of the world economy. By engaging wide-ranging ideas and theoretical viewpoints of the migration process, the labor market for immigrants, and the rights of migrants, this book provides an important-and much needed-interdisciplinary perspective on the issues of mass migration.
Jonah Hook was a man who had lost everything a man could lose--but the iron will to reclaim what had been taken from him. Now he must confront the fiery religious heretic who has enslaved his wife and the fierce Comanche tribe who has raised his long-lost sons. From Fort Laramie, land of Sioux and Cheyenne, to the empire of the Mormons in the shadow of tall mountains, and on to the Texas panhandle, where he will join the ranks of the Texas Rangers, the journey ahead will test Jonah's courage, cunning, and endurance to the limit. On this bloody trail of rescue and revenge, nothing will stop him save success . . . or death.
Dena loves using magnets to perform magic tricks for the kids at the pool. When Enrique arrives in town, he doesn’t like that Dena is fooling the others. He gives her a century-old treasure map and Dena uses her compass and tools to plot the location of the treasure. To her surprise, the treasure is not where it should be! What could cause her compass to lead her off course? When she discovers the answer, will Dena keep fooling the other kids with magic tricks or will she help them learn about magnetism and the earth’s shifting magnetic poles?
Evidence-based management (EBMgt) derives principles of good management from scientific research, meta-analysis, literature reviews, and case studies, and then translates them into practice. This book is the first systematic assessment of EBMgt and its potential application in public management.
Train Aerodynamics: Fundamentals and Applications is the first reference to provide a comprehensive overview of train aerodynamics with full scale data results. With the most up-to-date information on recent advances and the possibilities of improvement in railway facilities, this book will benefit railway engineers, train operators, train manufacturers, infrastructure managers and researchers of train aerodynamics. As the subject of train aerodynamics has evolved slowly over the last few decades with train speeds gradually increasing, and as a result of increasing interest in new train types and high-speed lines, this book provides a timely resource on the topic. Examines the fundamentals and the state-of-the-art of train aerodynamics, beginning with experimental, numerical and analytical tools, and then thoroughly discussing the specific approaches in other sections Features the latest developments and progress in computational aerodynamics and experimental facilities Addresses problems relating to train aerodynamics, from the dimensioning of railway structures and trains, to risk analysis related to safety issues and maintenance Discusses basic flow patterns caused by bridges and embankments
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