Svetlana Vtyurina's Books

Inflation in Tajikistan

Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges

By: Svetlana Vtyurina,Fahad Alturki

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Inflation in Tajikistan

Forecasting Analysis and Monetary Policy Challenges

By: Svetlana Vtyurina,Fahad Alturki

This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451962177

ISBN 13

9781451962178

How Does Taxation Affect Hours Worked in EU New Member States?

By: Agustin Velasquez,Svetlana Vtyurina

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How Does Taxation Affect Hours Worked in EU New Member States?

By: Agustin Velasquez,Svetlana Vtyurina

Hours worked vary widely across countries and over time. In this paper, we investigate the role played by taxation in explaining these differences for EU New Member States. By extending a standard growth model with novel data on consumption and labor taxes, we assess the evolution of trends in hours worked over the 1995-2017 period. We find that the inclusion of tax rates in the model significantly improves the tracking of hours. We also estimate the elasticity of hours (and its different margins) to quantify the deadweight loss introduced by consumption and labor taxes. We find that these taxes explain a large share of labor supply differences across EU New Member States and that the potential gains from policy actions are noteworthy.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498315704

ISBN 13

9781498315708

A License to Issue (Anywhere)

Patterns and Drivers of Corporate Bonds in Latin America

By: Svetlana Vtyurina,Adrian Robles,Mr.Bennett W Sutton

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A License to Issue (Anywhere)

Patterns and Drivers of Corporate Bonds in Latin America

By: Svetlana Vtyurina,Adrian Robles,Mr.Bennett W Sutton

This paper overviews patterns in bond issuance in local and external markets by firms in six large Latin American countries. Data suggest that despite rising issuance, local markets remain small and shallow in several countries. Nevertheless, since greater funding is available to many firms in both markets, we investigate the factors that may explain the firm’s choice on where to issue a bond. Using an unbalanced panel of firm and market-level indicators for years 1995-2015, we control for variables representing several theories of capital structure, and the results show that firm characteristics such as size and liquidity increase the likelihood of firms to issue externally. With respect to market characteristics, the market completeness hypothesis generates the most support, where market scale and depth are most important for the issuer’s choice of the market, suggesting that local markets will have to become deeper to draw more firms and investment.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484310500

ISBN 13

9781484310502

Highways to Heaven

Infrastructure Determinants and Trends in Latin America and the Caribbean

By: Ms.Valerie Cerra,Mr.Alfredo Cuevas,Carlos Góes,Ms.Izabela Karpowicz,Mr.Troy D Matheson,Issouf Samaké,Svetlana Vtyurina

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Highways to Heaven

Infrastructure Determinants and Trends in Latin America and the Caribbean

By: Ms.Valerie Cerra,Mr.Alfredo Cuevas,Carlos Góes,Ms.Izabela Karpowicz,Mr.Troy D Matheson,Issouf Samaké,Svetlana Vtyurina

Inadequate infrastructure has been widely viewed as a principal barrier to growth and development in Latin America and the Caribbean. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of infrastructure in the region and highlights key areas in which infrastructure networks can be enhanced. The public and private sectors play complementary roles in improving the infrastructure network. Therefore, it is critical to strengthen public investment management processes as well as the regulatory framework, including to ensure an appropriate mix of financing and funding for projects and to address environmental concerns.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

147553759X

ISBN 13

9781475537598

The Determinants of Banks' Liquidity Buffers in Central America

By: Ms.Corinne Delechat,MissCamila Henao Arbelaez,Ms.Priscilla S. Muthoora,Svetlana Vtyurina

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The Determinants of Banks' Liquidity Buffers in Central America

By: Ms.Corinne Delechat,MissCamila Henao Arbelaez,Ms.Priscilla S. Muthoora,Svetlana Vtyurina

Banks’ liquidity holdings are comfortably above legal or prudential requirements in most Central American countries. While good for financial stability, high systemic liquidity may nonetheless hinder monetary policy transmission and financial markets development. Using a panel of about 100 commercial banks from the region, we find that the demand for precautionary liquidity buffers is associated with measures of bank size, profitability, capitalization, and financial development. Deposit dollarization is also associated with higher liquidity, reinforcing the monetary policy and market development challenges in highly dollarized economies. Improvements in supervision and measures to promote dedollarization, including developing local currency capital markets, would help enhance financial systems’ efficiency and promote intermediation in the region.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1557754004

ISBN 13

9781557754004

Fiscal Multipliers and Institutions in Peru

Getting the Largest Bang for the Sol

By: Svetlana Vtyurina,Zulima Leal

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Fiscal Multipliers and Institutions in Peru

Getting the Largest Bang for the Sol

By: Svetlana Vtyurina,Zulima Leal

With the end of the commodity super cycle, Peru’s potential growth has declined, raising questions of what government policies could do to help boost growth, including over the medium-term. Our econometric analysis shows that public investment multipliers have a larger effect on growth than current spending or tax-related stimulus in the short and medium terms. Peru’s low debt and financial savings grants fiscal space for increasing investment spending, which could also entice and complement private investment, provided the former is efficient, fiscally sustainable and complemented by further reforms in public investment management and changes to the decentralization framework.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498381014

ISBN 13

9781498381017

Effectiveness and Equity in Social Spending - The Case of Spain

By: Svetlana Vtyurina

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Effectiveness and Equity in Social Spending - The Case of Spain

By: Svetlana Vtyurina

Spain is experiencing sustained economic and social disparities in several areas. Social spending policies have a heightened responsibility to respond but are challenged by high public debt and pressures from an aging society. This study takes stock of the level and effectiveness of public social expenditure from a cross-country and macroeconomic view, complementing recent targeted spending reviews. The results suggest that social protection spending should aim to improve redistribution through better targeting the most vulnerable while more effective education and active labor market policies should aim to create more equal opportunities and income prospects. In some areas more fiscal resources are needed. But social spending alone cannot reduce inequality, and efforts also should be directed toward making the labor market more inclusive.

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International Monetary Fund

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1513526006

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9781513526003

Peru

Selected Issues

By: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

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Peru

Selected Issues

By: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

This Selected Issues paper presents a comparative analysis of the macroeconomic adjustment in Chile, Colombia, and Peru to commodity terms-of-trade shocks. The study is done in two steps: (1) an analysis of the impulse responses of key macroeconomic variables to terms-of-trade shocks and (2) an event study of the adjustment to the recent decline in commodity prices. The experiences of these countries highlight the importance of flexible exchange rates to help with the adjustment to lower commodity prices, and staying vigilant in addressing depreciation pressures on inflation through tightening monetary policies. On the fiscal front, evidence shows that greater fiscal space, like that of Chile and Peru, gives more room for accommodating terms-of-trade shocks.

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