Shant Arzoumanian's Books

Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options

By: Shant Arzoumanian

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Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options

By: Shant Arzoumanian

This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia’s output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400254871

Informality, Labor Market Dynamics, and Business Cycles in North Africa

By: Olivier Bizimana,Shant Arzoumanian

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Informality, Labor Market Dynamics, and Business Cycles in North Africa

By: Olivier Bizimana,Shant Arzoumanian

Employment informality is widespread across North Africa. This paper aims to shed light on the role played by the informal sector in labor market adjustments over the business cycle. It finds that the response of labor markets to output fluctuations is more muted in countries with higher informality levels, like the North African economies. The analysis also confirms that informal employment is countercyclical and acts as a buffer during economic downturns in countries with relatively higher informality. However, contrary to what took place in past recessions, informal employment contracted sharply during the 2020 pandemic recession in high informality economies, suggesting that it did not play its traditional countercyclical role. By contrast, employment informality tends to fall modestly or increase during economic upturns, including the post-pandemic recovery. This finding presages the persistence of a large informal sector in the post-covid era in medium- and high-informality countries.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400250583

Informality, Development, and the Business Cycle in North Africa

By: Mr. Roberto Cardarelli,Hippolyte W. Balima,Chiara Maggi,Mr. Adrian Alter,Jérôme Vacher,Matthew Gaertner,Olivier Bizimana,Azhin Abdulkarim,Karim Badr,Shant Arzoumanian,Mahmoud Harb,Mariam El Hamiani Khatat,Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora,Aymen Belgacem

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Informality, Development, and the Business Cycle in North Africa

North African economies are characterized by a significant share of informal activity and employment. About two-thirds of workers in North Africa operate without any formal arrangement and social protection, and about 30 percent of GDP is estimated to be produced by informal workers and firms. This paper finds that while a few key structural characteristics could explain “normal” informality in North Africa, policy distortions explain a large share of excess informality. Among the structural factors that can lead to high informality, the relatively lower level of human capital and younger population help explain the high informality in the region, as low-skilled and young people generally find it more difficult to operate in the formal sector. At the same time, gaps in a set of policy indicators also explain the relatively high informality in North Africa. In particular, this paper finds that gaps in the quality of governance explain about half of the excess informality experienced in North Africa compared with advanced economies. In this context, the expansion of the informal sector in Algeria and Tunisia from the mid-2000s partially reflects the deterioration in a few indicators of their governance and regulatory frameworks. In contrast, the decline in informality observed in Egypt, Mauritania, and Morocco over this period also reflects improved business regulations, governance, and tax systems, in addition to continued progress in economic development. While informality has traditionally buffered regional labor markets against the impact of recessions, the COVID-19 crisis has been different. North African economies have generally exhibited relatively stable unemployment rates, including during recessions, largely owing to their high levels of informality. However, informal employment has fallen significantly in North Africa during the pandemic, as lockdown measures have particularly affected high-informality service sectors. As the pandemic subsides and the lockdown measures are removed, the recovery of regional labor markets could exhibit a stronger-than-usual rebound of informal employment. Ensuring an inclusive recovery from the pandemic would call for renewed efforts to construct more modern (digitalized), more efficient, and fairer systems of social protection, building on the progress achieved in the region during the pandemic in extending safety nets to informal workers.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513591770

ISBN 13

9781513591773

Book's by Shant Arzoumanian

Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options

Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options

Informality, Labor Market Dynamics, and Business Cycles in North Africa

Informality, Labor Market Dynamics, and Business Cycles in North Africa

Informality, Development, and the Business Cycle in North Africa

Informality, Development, and the Business Cycle in North Africa

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