Iran is aggressively seeking nuclear technology that could be used for making weapons—and its quest has set off alarms throughout the world. This widespread concern stems in part from Iran's uncertain intentions and recent history. Will it remain a revolutionary power determined to subvert its Sunni Arab neighbors, destroy Israel, and spread theocratic government to other lands? Or would an Iran with nuclear weapons merely defend its territory from foreign aggression and live in peace with its neighbors? Are the country's leaders and society willing to negotiate limits on nuclear capability and normalize relations with the West, or will they resist accommodation? Iran's Nuclear Ambitions provides a rare, balanced look into the motivations, perceptions, and domestic politics swirling around Iran. Shahram Chubin, an Iranian-born security expert, details the recent history of Iran's nuclear program and diplomacy. He argues that the central problem is not nuclear technology, but rather Iran's behavior as a revolutionary state, with ambitions that collide with the interests of its neighbors and the West. Topics include: The view from Tehran Iran's nuclear energy rationale, domestic politics, and decisionmaking Sources of concern, including the nature of Iran's regime, its nuclear infrastructure, missile development, and terrorism Iran's negotiating strategy The international response Iran and regional security, including the U.S. as a threat and rival, Iran's regional ambitions, and Israel Policy options
Reform and foreign policy -- Defence and national security -- Iran's missile programme -- Nuclear weapons -- Terrorism and the Middle East question -- Conclusion.
Religion, nationalism, ethnicity, economics, and geopolitics all are important in explaining Iran's goals and tactics in its relationship with the outside world, as are the agendas of key security institutions and the ambitions of their leaders. This report assesses Iran's security policy in light of these factors. It examines broad drivers of Iran's security policy, describes important security institutions, explores decisionmaking, and reviews Iran's relations with key countries. The authors conclude that Iraq is widely recognized as the leading threat to Iran's Islamic regime and Afghanistan is seen as an emerging threat. In contrast, Iran has solid, if not necessarily warm, relations with Syria and established working ties to Pakistan and Russia. Iran's policies toward its neighbors are increasingly prudent: It is trying to calm regional tension and end its isolation, although its policies toward Israel and the United States are often an exception to this policy. Iran's security forces, particularly the regular military, are often voices of restraint, preferring shows of force to overactive confrontations. Finally, Iran's security forces generally respect and follow the wishes of Iran's civilian leadership; conducting rogue operations is rare to nonexistent.
The U.S. ability to "read" the Iranian regime and formulate appropriate policies has been weakened by lack of access to the country and by the opacity of decisionmaking in Tehran. To improve understanding of Iran's political system, the authors describe Iranian strategic culture; investigate Iran's informal networks, formal government institutions, and personalities; assess the impact of elite behavior on Iranian policy; and summarize key trends.
This book attempts to understand both the nature and the consequences of the current conflict between Iraq and Iran. It is based on a research project initiated by the auspices of the Programme for Strategic and International Security Studies in Geneva.
Both countries will have strong incentives to test the artificial balance established by the US and from which they are excluded. Each state, in the face of continued embargoes, may find the lure of weapons of mass destruction correspondingly increased.
These proceedings present an informal discussion among a group of experts who explored a set of five topics: the insurgency in Iraq, the Arab-Israeli situation, the terrorist threat, internal security in Saudi Arabia, and Iran and the proliferation of WMD. Each topic was addressed with an eye toward understanding their implications for the region as a whole and exploring what the broader consequences might be for American and European policy.
Report of a workshop sponsored by RAND's Center for Middle East Public Policy and the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, held June 23-25 2002. The workshop focused on both global and regional aspects of the terrorist threat.
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