Selim Elekdag's Books

The Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages

Key Determinants and the Role of Policy

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul,Mr.Yiqun Wu

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The Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages

Key Determinants and the Role of Policy

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul,Mr.Yiqun Wu

This paper examines how Asian financial linkages with systemic economies have changed over time. After developing a factor model, it estimates Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies, and then seeks to uncover their key determinants, which include trade and financial linkages, as well as policies. In line with Asia’s growing role in the global economy—including through deeper financial integration—regional financial markets have become more sensitive to systemic economies. Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies exhibit cyclical fluctuations, and reached historically high levels during the latest global financial crisis of 2008–09. While macroeconomic policy frameworks have helped Asian economies cope well with market turbulence, they cannot completely insulate Asian financial markets against major global financial shocks.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

147556953X

ISBN 13

9781475569537

Das Public Kapital

How Much Would Higher German Public Investment Help Germany and the Euro Area?

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Dirk Muir

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Das Public Kapital

How Much Would Higher German Public Investment Help Germany and the Euro Area?

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Dirk Muir

Given the backdrop of pressing infrastructure needs, this paper argues that higher German public investment would not only stimulate domestic demand in the near term and reduce the current account surplus, but would also raise output over the longer-run as well as generate beneficial regional spillovers. While time-to-build delays can weaken the impact of the stimulus in the short-run, the expansionary effects of higher public investment are substantially strengthened with an accommodative monetary policy stance—as is typical during periods of economic slack. The current low-interest rate environment presents a window of opportunity to finance higher public investment at historically favorable rates.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498393675

ISBN 13

9781498393676

Did Korean Monetary Policy Help Soften the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009?

By: Mr.Harun Alp,Selim Elekdag,Mr.Subir Lall

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Did Korean Monetary Policy Help Soften the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009?

By: Mr.Harun Alp,Selim Elekdag,Mr.Subir Lall

Korea was one of the Asian economies hardest hit by the global financial crisis. Anticipating the downturn that would follow the episode of extreme financial stress, the Bank of Korea (BOK) let the exchange rate depreciate as capital flowed out, and preemptively cut the policy rate by 325 basis points. But did it work? This paper seeks a quantitative answer to the following question: Were it not for an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime, how much deeper would the recession have been? Taking the most intense year of the crisis as our baseline (2008:Q4?2009:Q3), counterfactual simulations indicate that rather the actual outcome of a -2.1 percent contraction, the outturn would have been -2.9 percent if the BOK had not implemented countercyclical and discretionary interest rate cuts. Furthermore, had a fixed exchange rate regime been in place, simulations indicate that output would have contracted by -7.5 percent over the same four-quarter period. In other words, exchange rate flexibility and the interest rate cuts implemented by the BOK helped substantially soften the impact of the global financial crisis on the Korean economy. These counterfactual experiments are based on an estimated structural model, which, along with standard nominal and real rigidities, includes a financial accelerator mechanism in an open-economy framework.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1463968639

ISBN 13

9781463968632

Emerging Market Corporate Leverage and Global Financial Conditions

By: Adrian Alter,Selim Elekdag

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Emerging Market Corporate Leverage and Global Financial Conditions

By: Adrian Alter,Selim Elekdag

Corporate debt in emerging markets has risen significantly in recent years amid accommodative global financial conditions. This paper studies the relationship of leverage growth in emerging market (EM) firms to U.S. monetary conditions, and more broadly, to global financial conditions. We find that accommodative U.S. monetary conditions are reliably associated with faster EM leverage growth during the past decade. Specifically, a 1 percentage point decline in the U.S. policy rate corresponds to an appreciable increase in EM leverage growth of 9 basis points, on average (relative to the sample average leverage growth of 35 basis points per year). This impact is more pronounced for sectors dependent on external financing, for SMEs, and for firms in more financially open EMs with less flexible exchange rates. The findings suggest that global financial conditions affect EM firms’ leverage growth in part by influencing domestic interest rates and by relaxing corporate borrowing constraints.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475560486

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9781475560480

Trade Linkages, Balance Sheets, and Spillovers

The Germany-Central European Supply Chain

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Dirk Muir

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Trade Linkages, Balance Sheets, and Spillovers

The Germany-Central European Supply Chain

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Dirk Muir

Germany and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia (the CE4) have been in a process of deepening economic integration which has lead to the development of a dynamic supply chain within Europe—the Germany-Central European Supply Chain (GCESC). Model-based simulations suggest two key policy implications: First, as a reflection of strengthening trade linkages, German fiscal spillovers to the CE4 and more broadly to the rest of the euro area, have increased over time, but are still relatively small. This is explained by the supply chain nature of trade integration: final demand in Germany is not necessarily the main determinant of CE4 exports to Germany. Second, increased trade openness in both Germany and the CE4 implies a greater exposure of the GCESC to global shocks. However, owing to its strong fundamentals—including sound balance sheets and its safe haven status— Germany plays the role of a regional anchor of stability by better absorbing shocks from other trading partners instead of amplifying their transmission across the GCESC.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

148432711X

ISBN 13

9781484327111

Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability

By: Selim Elekdag,Sheheryar Malik,Ms.Srobona Mitra

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Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability

By: Selim Elekdag,Sheheryar Malik,Ms.Srobona Mitra

This paper explores the determinants of profitability across large euro area banks using a novel approach based on conditional profitability distributions. Real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are shown to be the most reliable determinants of bank profitability. However, the estimated conditional distributions reveal that, while higher growth would raise profits on average, a large swath of banks would most likely continue to struggle even amid a strong economic recovery. Therefore, for some banks, a determined reduction in NPLs combined with cost efficiency improvements and customized changes to their business models appears to be the most promising strategy for durably raising profitability.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513522256

ISBN 13

9781513522258

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Fei Han

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What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Fei Han

This paper seeks to uncover the main drivers of credit growth in emerging Asia using a multi-country structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Taking a novel approach, we developed a two-block SVAR whereby shocks within blocks are identified using sign restrictions, whereas shocks across the blocks are identified using a recursive (block-) Cholesky structure. We find that domestic factors are more dominant than external factors in driving rapid credit growth in emerging Asia. This is particularly true for domestic monetary policy, which can play a pivotal role in terms of managing rapid credit growth in emerging Asia.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1463943008

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9781463943004

Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy?

By: Mr.Harun Alp,Selim Elekdag

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Shock Therapy! What Role for Thai Monetary Policy?

By: Mr.Harun Alp,Selim Elekdag

Thailand had to endure three major shocks during 2008–2011: the global financial crisis, the Japanese earthquake, and the Thai floods of 2011. Over this period, consistent with its inflation targeting framework, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) let the exchange rate depreciate and cut interest rates (to, for example, a historically low level of 11⁄4 percent by mid-2009). This paper seeks to uncover the role of monetary policy in softening the impact of these shocks. Specifically, it seeks to address the following question: if an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime had not been in place, how would the economic contractions associated with these shocks have differed? Counterfactual simulations based on an estimated structural model indicate that countercyclical monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility added up to a total of 4 percentage points to real GDP growth during periods when Thailand had to weather these three major shocks.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475591438

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9781475591439

Social Spending in Korea

Can it Foster Sustainable and Inclusive Growth?

By: Selim Elekdag

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Social Spending in Korea

Can it Foster Sustainable and Inclusive Growth?

By: Selim Elekdag

Going forward, Korea faces two closely related challenges: sustaining economic growth against the backdrop of a rapidly aging population and ameliorating income inequality. This paper argues that a gradual increase in social spending could promote more sustainable and inclusive growth in Korea. In particular, simulation results suggest that social spending which supports labor market reforms can boost longer-term growth. However, despite rapid increases recently—albeit from a low base—there is still a social spending gap relative to Korea’s OECD peers. Because of several fiscal challenges in the coming decades, increases in social spending should be incremental, and would be usefully guided by a longer-term fiscal framework.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475549210

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9781475549218

Rapid Credit Growth

Boon or Boom-Bust?

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Yiqun Wu

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Rapid Credit Growth

Boon or Boom-Bust?

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Yiqun Wu

Episodes of rapid credit growth, especially credit booms, tend to end abruptly, typically in the form of financial crises. This paper presents the findings of a comprehensive event study focusing on 99 credit booms. Loose monetary policy stances seem to have contributed to the build-up of credit booms across both advanced and emerging economies. In particular, domestic policy rates were below trend during the pre-peak phase of credit booms and likely fuelled macroeconomic and financial imbalances. For emerging economies, while credit booms are associated with episodes of large capital inflows, international interest rates (a proxy for global liquidity) are virtually flat during these periods. Therefore, although external factors such as global liquidity conditions matter, and possibly increasingly so over time, domestic factors (especially monetary policy) also appear to be important drivers of real credit growth across emerging economies.

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1463922620

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9781463922627

Can a Rule-Based Monetary Policy Framework Work in a Developing Country? The Case of Yemen

By: Selim Elekdag,Nabil Ben Ltaifa,Todd Schneider,Mr.Saade Chami

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Can a Rule-Based Monetary Policy Framework Work in a Developing Country? The Case of Yemen

By: Selim Elekdag,Nabil Ben Ltaifa,Todd Schneider,Mr.Saade Chami

Monetary policy in Yemen is largely rudimentary and ad hoc in nature. The Central Bank of Yemen's (CBY) approach has been based on discretionary targeting of broad money without any clear target to anchor inflation expectations. This paper argues in favor of a new formal monetary policy framework for Yemen emphasizing a proactive and rule-based approach with a greater direct focus on price stability in the context of a flexible management of the exchange rate. Although, as in many developing countries, institutional capacity is a concern, adopting a more formal framework could impel the kind of changes that are required to strengthen the ability of the CBY in achieving low and stable rates of inflation over the medium term.

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ISBN 10

1451865708

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9781451865707

The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries

The Case of Thailand

By: Mr.Ivan Tchakarov,Selim Elekdag

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The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries

The Case of Thailand

By: Mr.Ivan Tchakarov,Selim Elekdag

Emerging market countries have enjoyed an exceptionally favorable economic environment throughout 2004, 2005, and early 2006. In particular, accommodative U.S. monetary policy in recent years has helped create an environment of low interest rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would lead to less hospitable financing conditions for emerging market countries. The purpose of this paper is to measure the effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit market frictions into the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) and finds that Thailand would best minimize the adverse effects of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime.

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International Monetary Fund

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1451863705

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9781451863703

Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

By: Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Selim Elekdag,Mr.Phakawa Jeasakul,Romain Lafarguette,Mr.Adrian Alter,Alan Xiaochen Feng,Changchun Wang

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Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

By: Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Selim Elekdag,Mr.Phakawa Jeasakul,Romain Lafarguette,Mr.Adrian Alter,Alan Xiaochen Feng,Changchun Wang

The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498301347

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9781498301343

An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09

By: Mr.Harun Alp,Selim Elekdag,Mr.Subir Lall

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An Assessment of Malaysian Monetary Policy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09

By: Mr.Harun Alp,Selim Elekdag,Mr.Subir Lall

Malaysia was hit hard by the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Anticipating the downturn that would follow the episode of extreme financial turbulence, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) let the exchange rate depreciate as capital flowed out, and preemptively cut the policy rate by 150 basis points. Against this backdrop, this paper tries to quantify how much deeper the recession would have been without the BNM's monetary policy response. Taking the most intense year of the crisis as our baseline (2008:Q4-2009:Q3), counterfactual simulations indicate that rather the actual outcome of a -2.9 percent contraction, growth would have been -3.4 percent if the BNM had not implemented countercyclical and discretionary interest rate cuts. Furthermore, had a fixed exchange rate regime been in place, simulations indicate that output would have contracted by -5.5 percent over the same four-quarter period. In other words, exchange rate flexibility and the interest rate cuts implemented by the BNM helped substantially soften the impact of the global financial crisis on the Malaysian economy. These counterfactual experiments are based on a structural model estimated using Malaysian data.

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International Monetary Fund

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1463971176

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9781463971175

Weather Shocks and Exchange Rate Flexibility

By: Selim Elekdag,Maxwell Tuuli

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Weather Shocks and Exchange Rate Flexibility

By: Selim Elekdag,Maxwell Tuuli

This paper assesses the stabilization properties of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes and aims to answer this research question: Does greater exchange rate flexibility help an economy’s adjustment to weather shocks? To address this question, the impact of weather shocks on real per capita GDP growth is quantified under the two alternative exchange rate regimes. We find that although weather shocks are generally detrimental to per capita income growth, the impact is less severe under flexible exchange rate regimes. Moreover, the medium-term adverse growth impact of a 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature under a pegged regime is about –1.4 percentage points on average, while under a flexible regime, the impact is less than one half that amount (–0.6 percentage point). This finding bolsters the idea that exchange rate flexibility not only helps mitigate the initial impact of the shock but also promotes a faster recovery. In terms of mechanisms, our findings suggest that the depreciation of the nominal exchange rate under a flexible regime supports real export growth. In contrast to standard theoretical predictions, we find that countercyclical fiscal policy may not be effective under pegged regimes amid high debt, highlighting the importance of the policy mix and precautionary (fiscal) buffers.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400207600

Does FinTech Increase Bank Risk Taking?

By: Mr. Selim A Elekdag,Drilona Emrullahu,Sami Ben Naceur

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Does FinTech Increase Bank Risk Taking?

By: Mr. Selim A Elekdag,Drilona Emrullahu,Sami Ben Naceur

Motivated by its rapid growth, this paper investigates how FinTech activities influence risk taking by financial intermediaries (FIs). In this context, this paper revisits an ongoing debate on the impact of competition on financial stability: on one side, it is argued that greater competition encourages greater risk taking (competition-fragility hypothesis), while the other side of the debate asserts that more competition can increase financial stability (competition-stability hypothesis). Using a curated databased covering over 10,000 FIs and global FinTech activities, we find a robust relationship whereby greater FinTech presence is associated with heightened risk taking by FIs, offering support for the competition-fragility hypothesis. However, the inclusion of bank-, industry-, and country-specific characteristics can alter this relationship. Importantly, there is suggestive evidence indicating that in certain cases, greater FinTech presence may be associated with less FI risk taking amid stronger domestic institutions. Notwithstanding the relevance for policy, this paper presents a novel framework that may help reconcile some of the conflicting results in the literature which have found supportive evidence for each of the two competing hypotheses.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400265167

Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

By: Mr.Prakash Kannan,Selim Elekdag

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Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

By: Mr.Prakash Kannan,Selim Elekdag

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new approach. The resulting spreadsheet, which implements the approach, is available upon request from the authors.

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International Monetary Fund

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1451873255

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9781451873252

Is FinTech Eating the Bank's Lunch?

By: Sami Ben Naceur,Bertrand Candelon,Mr. Selim A Elekdag,Drilona Emrullahu

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Is FinTech Eating the Bank's Lunch?

By: Sami Ben Naceur,Bertrand Candelon,Mr. Selim A Elekdag,Drilona Emrullahu

This paper examines how the growing presence of FinTech firms affects the performance of traditional financial institutions. The findings point to a negative impact on profitability, primarily due to a reduction in interest income and a rise in operational costs. Although established financial institutions have tried to diversify their revenue streams, these efforts have proven inadequate to offset the losses associated with increased competition from FinTech firms. Our study also reveals that various FinTech business models, such as Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending and Balance Sheet lending, have varying effects on financial institutions. Cooperative banks experience more significant profit deterioration under both models, whereas (larger) commercial banks appear to benefit from partnerships with P2P platforms, as evidenced by an increase in non-interest income. Furthermore, the findings suggest that FinTech presence has a disproportionately larger adverse effect on banks in countries with more competitive, profitable, and developed financial systems. Interestingly, however, traditional financial institutions in countries with stronger regulatory frameworks appear to benefit from the expanding influence of FinTech firms.

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International Monetary Fund

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9798400258107

The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey During the Global Financial Crisis

By: Mr.Harun Alp,Selim Elekdag

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The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey During the Global Financial Crisis

By: Mr.Harun Alp,Selim Elekdag

Turkey is an interesting case study because it was one of the hardest hit emerging economies by the global financial crisis, with a year-over-year contraction of 15 percent during the first quarter of 2009. At the same time, anticipating the fallout from the crisis, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) decreased policy rates by an astounding 1025 basis points over the November 2008 to November 2009 period. In this context, this paper addresses the following broad question: If an inflation targeting framework underpinned by a flexible exchange rate regime was not adopted, how much deeper would the recent recession have been? Counterfactual experiments based on an estimated structural model provide quantitative evidence which suggests that the recession would have been substantially more severe. In other words, the interest rate cuts implemented by the CBRT and exchange rate flexibility both helped substantially soften the impact of the global financial crisis.

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International Monetary Fund

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1455270482

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9781455270484

Emerging Market Corporate Leverage and Global Financial Conditions

By: Adrian Alter,Selim Elekdag

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Emerging Market Corporate Leverage and Global Financial Conditions

By: Adrian Alter,Selim Elekdag

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International Monetary Fund

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1475560494

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9781475560497

Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

By: Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Selim Elekdag,Mr.Phakawa Jeasakul,Romain Lafarguette,Mr.Adrian Alter,Alan Xiaochen Feng,Changchun Wang

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Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

By: Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad,Selim Elekdag,Mr.Phakawa Jeasakul,Romain Lafarguette,Mr.Adrian Alter,Alan Xiaochen Feng,Changchun Wang

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1498301347

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9781498301343

The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey During the Global Financial Crisis

By: Mr.Harun Alp,Selim Elekdag

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The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey During the Global Financial Crisis

By: Mr.Harun Alp,Selim Elekdag

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1455270482

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9781455270484

Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

By: Mr.Prakash Kannan,Selim Elekdag

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Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

By: Mr.Prakash Kannan,Selim Elekdag

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1451873255

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9781451873252

The Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages

Key Determinants and the Role of Policy

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul,Mr.Yiqun Wu

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The Evolution of Asian Financial Linkages

Key Determinants and the Role of Policy

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul,Mr.Yiqun Wu

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International Monetary Fund

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1475588682

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9781475588682

Can a Rule-Based Monetary Policy Framework Work in a Developing Country? The Case of Yemen

By: Selim Elekdag,Nabil Ben Ltaifa,Todd Schneider,Mr.Saade Chami

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Can a Rule-Based Monetary Policy Framework Work in a Developing Country? The Case of Yemen

By: Selim Elekdag,Nabil Ben Ltaifa,Todd Schneider,Mr.Saade Chami

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International Monetary Fund

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1451865708

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9781451865707

Das Public Kapital

How Much Would Higher German Public Investment Help Germany and the Euro Area?

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Dirk Muir

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Das Public Kapital

How Much Would Higher German Public Investment Help Germany and the Euro Area?

By: Selim Elekdag,Mr.Dirk Muir

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International Monetary Fund

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1498393675

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9781498393676

Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization?

By: Mr.Nicolas Arregui,Selim Elekdag,Mr.R. G Gelos,Romain Lafarguette,MissDulani Seneviratne

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Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization?

By: Mr.Nicolas Arregui,Selim Elekdag,Mr.R. G Gelos,Romain Lafarguette,MissDulani Seneviratne

This paper examines the evolving importance of common global components underlying domestic financial conditions. It develops financial conditions indices (FCIs) that make it possible to compare a large set of advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that a common component, “global financial conditions,” accounts for about 20 percent to 40 percent of the variation in countries’ domestic FCIs, with notable heterogeneity across countries. Its importance, however, does not seem to have increased markedly over the past two decades. Global financial conditions loom large, but evidence suggests that, on average, countries still appear to hold considerable sway over their own financial conditions—specifically, through monetary policy. Nevertheless, the rapid speed at which foreign shocks affect domestic financial conditions may also make it difficult to react in a timely and effective manner, if deemed necessary.

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1484339053

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9781484339053

The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries

The Case of Thailand

By: Mr.Ivan Tchakarov,Selim Elekdag

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The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries

The Case of Thailand

By: Mr.Ivan Tchakarov,Selim Elekdag

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International Monetary Fund

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1451863705

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9781451863703

Germany

Selected Issues

By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

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Germany

Selected Issues

By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

This Selected Issues paper on Germany focuses on current economic condition in the country. The build-up of Germany’s current account surplus over the last decade does not lend itself to a single-factor explanation, as both global and domestic factors, as well as policy changes led to increased savings and lower investment. All sectors contributed to the build-up of the surplus. Although fiscal consolidation and higher household savings played a role, the corporate sector experienced a more pronounced shift. This paper provides a retrospective on these developments and explores whether the factors contributing to the surplus are likely to be reversed going forward. Although there are common global drivers for the non-financial corporations shift to a net lender position, several German-specific factors played a role, notably the labor market reforms in the 2000s, the business tax reforms, and the globalization of German firms’ production chains. The households’ saving–investment gap widened in the early 2000s as the pension reforms and growing income inequality boosted households’ savings and residential investment declined by the end of the reunification construction boom.

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