Sebastian Acevedo Mejia's Books

Caribbean Energy

Macro-Related Challenges

By: Arnold McIntyre,Ahmed El-Ashram,Marcio Ronci,Julien Reynaud,Ms.Natasha Xingyuan Che,Ke Wang,Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mark Scott Lutz

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Caribbean Energy

Macro-Related Challenges

By: Arnold McIntyre,Ahmed El-Ashram,Marcio Ronci,Julien Reynaud,Ms.Natasha Xingyuan Che,Ke Wang,Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mark Scott Lutz

High energy costs contribute to dampening Caribbean competitiveness and potential growth. This paper overviews power sector challenges and takes stock of national and regional strategies to address them. It presents recommendations to move the energy agenda forward based on analyses of macro-aspects of energy reform. These include: i) quantitative assessment of the impact of energy costs on growth and competitiveness; ii) evaluation of gains from implementing announced renewable energy and energy efficiency targets; and iii) analysis of the impact of energy investments on debt sustainability. The paper argues for a bigger role for the private sector in energy reform and discusses prerequisites for good public-private partnerships.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513560743

ISBN 13

9781513560748

Caribbean Growth in an International Perspective

The Role of Tourism and Size

By: Ms.Nita Thacker,Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Roberto Perrelli

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Caribbean Growth in an International Perspective

The Role of Tourism and Size

By: Ms.Nita Thacker,Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Roberto Perrelli

After earlier success, growth performance in most Caribbean countries has been disappointing since the early 1990s. With slower growth, output has fallen behind that of relevant comparator countries. This paper analyzes the growth experience of the Caribbean countries from a cross country perspective. Three findings stand out. First, the slowdown in growth is explained more by a decline in productivity rather than a lack of investment. Second, tourism has been a significant contributor to higher growth (through both capital accumulation and productivity) and lower output volatility, and in many countries there is scope for further expansion of this sector. Third, the small size and the fact that most of these countries are islands have limited growth. Policies aimed at improving productivity, further development of the tourism sector, and regional integration could pay dividends in terms of higher growth in the region.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475510896

ISBN 13

9781475510898

External Devaluations

Are Small States Different?

By: Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Aliona Cebotari,Kevin Greenidge,Geoffrey N. Keim

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External Devaluations

Are Small States Different?

By: Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Aliona Cebotari,Kevin Greenidge,Geoffrey N. Keim

The paper investigates whether the macroeconomic effects of external devaluations have systematically different effects in small states, which are typically more open and less diversified than larger peers. Through several analytical approaches -- DSGE model, event study, and regression analysis -- it finds that the effects of devaluation on growth and external balances are not significantly different between small and large states, with both groups equally likely to experience expansionary or contractionary outcomes. However, the transmission channels are different: devaluations in small states are more likely to affect demand through expenditure compression, rather than expenditure-switching channels. In particular, consumption tends to fall more sharply in small states due to adverse income effects, thereby reducing import demand. Policy conclusions point to the importance of social safety nets, complementary wage and antiinflation policies, investment-boosting reforms, and attention to potential adverse balance sheet effects to ensure positive outcomes.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513512919

ISBN 13

9781513512914

Gone with the Wind

Estimating Hurricane and Climate Change Costs in the Caribbean

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia

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Gone with the Wind

Estimating Hurricane and Climate Change Costs in the Caribbean

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia

This paper studies the economic costs of hurricanes in the Caribbean by constructing a novel dataset that combines a detailed record of tropical cyclones’ characteristics with reported damages. I estimate the relation between hurricane wind speeds and damages in the Caribbean; finding that the elasticity of damages to GDP ratio with respect to maximum wind speeds is three in the case of landfalls. The data show that hurricane damages are considerably underreported, particularly in the 1950s and 1960s, with average damages potentially being three times as large as the reported average of 1.6 percent of GDP per year. I document and show that hurricanes that do not make landfall also have considerable negative impacts on the Caribbean economies. Finally, I estimate that the average annual hurricane damages in the Caribbean will increase between 22 and 77 percent by the year 2100, in a global warming scenario of high CO2 concentrations and high global temperatures.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475544782

ISBN 13

9781475544787

Flying to Paradise

The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Lu Han,MissMarie S Kim,Ms.Nicole Laframboise

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Flying to Paradise

The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Lu Han,MissMarie S Kim,Ms.Nicole Laframboise

This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlines, and departure cities on U.S. tourist arrivals. The possible endogeneity problem between airlift supply and tourist arrivals is addressed by using a structural panel VAR and individual country VARs. Among the four airlift supply measures, increasing the number of flights is found to be the most effective way to boost tourist arrivals on a sustained basis. As a case study, the possible crowding effect of increasing the number of U.S. flights to Cuba is investigated and, based on past observations, we find no significant impact on flights to other Caribbean countries. The impact of natural disasters on airlift supply and tourist arrivals is also quantified.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498375391

ISBN 13

9781498375399

The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova

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The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova

Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484363027

ISBN 13

9781484363027

Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy

By: Sebastian Acevedo Mejia

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Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy

By: Sebastian Acevedo Mejia

This paper seeks to determine the effects that natural disasters have on per capita GDP and on the debt to GDP ratio in the Caribbean. Two types of natural disasters are studied –storms and floods– given their prevalence in the region, while considering the effects of both moderate and severe disasters. I use a vector autoregressive model with exogenous natural disasters shocks, in a panel of 12 Caribbean countries over a period of 40 years. The results show that both storms and floods have a negative effect on growth, and that debt increases with floods but not with storms. However, in a subsample I find that storms significantly increase debt in the short and long run. I also find weak evidence that debt relief contributes to ease the negative effects of storms on debt.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498333745

ISBN 13

9781498333740

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Claudio Baccianti,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova

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Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Claudio Baccianti,Mr.Mico Mrkaic,Natalija Novta,Evgenia Pugacheva,Petia Topalova

We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical evidence and simulations of a dynamic general equilibrium model reveal that good policies can help countries cope with negative weather shocks to some extent. However, none of the adaptive policies we consider can fully eliminate the large aggregate output losses that countries with hot climates experience due to rising temperatures. Only curbing greenhouse gas emissions—which would mitigate further global warming—could limit the adverse macroeconomic consequences of weather shocks in a long-lasting way.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513511572

ISBN 13

9781513511573

Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne,Rafael Romeu

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Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism

By: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia,Mr.Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne,Rafael Romeu

The Cuban revolution and the subsequent US embargo on Cuba helped shape the tourism sector in the Caribbean, facilitating the birth and growth of alternative destinations. Therefore, the apprehension of the Caribbean tourism industry towards a change in US travel policy to Cuba is understandable, but likely unwarranted. The history of tourism in the region has shown that it is possible for all destinations to grow despite large changes in market shares. Our estimations show that liberalizing US-Cuba tourism could result in US arrivals to Cuba of between 3 and 5.6 million, most of it coming from new tourists to the region. We also identify the destinations most at risk of changes in US-Cuba relations.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475596758

ISBN 13

9781475596755

Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy

By: Sebastian Acevedo Mejia

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Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy

By: Sebastian Acevedo Mejia

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ISBN 10

1498337600

ISBN 13

9781498337601

Book's by Sebastian Acevedo Mejia

Caribbean Energy

Caribbean Energy

Caribbean Growth in an International Perspective

Caribbean Growth in an International Perspective

External Devaluations

External Devaluations

Gone with the Wind

Gone with the Wind

Flying to Paradise

Flying to Paradise

The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy

Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism

Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism

Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy

Debt, Growth and Natural Disasters A Caribbean Trilogy

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