Business revolves around making decisions, often risky decisions, usually with incomplete information and too often in less time than we need. Executives at every level, in every industry, are confronted with information overload, less leeway for mistakes, and a business environment that changes rapidly. In light of this increased pressure and volatility, the old-fashioned ways of making decisions–depending on intuition, common sense, and specialized expertise–are simply no longer sufficient. Distilling over thirty years of groundbreaking research, Winning Decisions, written by two seasoned business advisers and world leaders in behavioral decision studies, is a comprehensive, one-of-a-kind guide to the proven methods of making critical business decisions confidently, quickly–and correctly. Decision-making is a business skill which managers often take for granted in themselves and others–but it's not as easy as some might think. The authors, whose expertise has been sought out by over a hundred companies, including Arthur Andersen, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, and Unilever, contend that decision-making, like any other skill, must be developed and honed if it is to be used effectively. Winning Decisions offers step-by-step analyses of how people typically make decisions, and provides invaluable advice on how to improve your chances of getting your next big decision right the first time. The book is packed with worksheets, tools, questionnaires, case studies, and anecdotes analyzing major decisions made by organizations like British Airways, NASA, Shell Oil, and Pepsi. Some of the proven, straightforward techniques covered in Winning Decisions include how to: Reframe issues to ensure that the real problem is being addressedImprove the quality and quantity of your options Convert expert yet conflicting opinions into useful insights Make diversity of views and conflict work to your advantage Foster efficient and effective group decision-making Learn from past decisions--your own and those of others With Winning Decisions, managers and other professionals now have access to a proven set of skills and strategies they need for making the right decision, right away.
What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity. Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty. More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that. This book was first published in 2002, well ahead of the mega turmoil that befell the world in 2008 and beyond. The methods and tools described here have been used by many companies and are even more relevant today than when originally published. You can’t do without them.
If you have ever flown in an airplane, used electricity from a nuclear power plant, or taken an antibiotic, you have benefited from a brilliant mistake. Schoemaker proveds a practical roadmap for using mistakes to accelerate learning for your organization and yourself.
Providing a panoramic overview of the evolving world of scenario planning, this Advanced Introduction uses topical case studies to analyze the developing methodologies of scenario planning. Written by Paul J.H. Schoemaker, a leading authority on the topic, this book synthesizes rigorous theory and practical experiences including best practises, normative views, and future challenges or opportunities for scenario planning.
Are you winning the battle but losing the war? Every leader has to deliver the goods -- make budget, meet deadlines, and deftly manage people -- to provide the inspirational fuel that keeps their business running day-in and day-out. But therein lies the danger of winning today's battle and losing the war -- that is the long game of creating sustainable value in a volatile, uncertain world that is becoming ever-more complex and ambiguous. The number one business challenge -- is winning the long game by being more strategic; developing the skills to look outside the four walls of the organization and see the world from the future back. Steven Krupp and Paul J. H. Schoemaker bridge the gap between what many see as the separate domains of strategy and leadership to show how to develop the discipline of strategic leadership in a world of growing uncertainty. Pragmatic to the core, Winning the Long Game creates vivid insights into the discipline of strategic leadership by applying it systemically through personal portraits of successful business leaders. The book profiles Elon Musk, Richard Branson, and Sara Blakely, as well as world-renowned figures like Pope Francis, Oprah Winfrey, and Nelson Mandela. What makes these strategic leaders successful is highlighted by contrasting them with others who are either mediocre or outright failures. Winning the Long Game is the must-have playbook for every leader and for any manager seeking to be become more strategic in today's topsy-turvy world.
Although networks in key business areas such as communications, supply chains, R&D, and sales are designed to improve the flow of information, people, or goods, they can also be used to improve the “peripheral vision” of the organization. In this chapter, the authors examine how networks can be used by organizations to scan, sense, and adapt to new and important signals from the organization’s strategic environment beyond its core focus. The first part of the chapter emphasizes the importance of peripheral vision in helping organizations not being blindsided by threats while seeing new opportunities sooner. The authors examine some key obstacles to using networks to better mine the periphery for early insight. They then explore how extended networks can help the organization be a responsive open system adapting faster to changes in the environment. They examine to what extent network constructs such as centrality, hierarchy, self-healing, distributed intelligence, multihoming, and latency can be used to improve organizational networks for scanning the periphery. The last section explores some of the leadership challenges associated with using networks to detect weak signals sooner.
3 books illuminate the cutting edge medical research that could save your life Right now, science is transforming what we know about preserving and improving human health. These three extraordinary books take you to the cutting edge of emerging science, presenting new findings that might someday save your life. In Antibiotic Resistance: Understanding and Responding to an Emerging Crisis, Karl S. Drlica and David S. Perlin presents a thorough and authoritative overview of the growing resistance of pathogenic bacteria to antibiotics, and what this means to our ability to control and treat infectious diseases. The authors answer crucial questions such as: What is resistance? How does it emerge? How do common human activities promote resistance? What can we do about it? How can we strengthen our defenses against resistance, minimize our risks, extend the effectiveness of current antibiotics, and find new ones faster? Next, in Chips, Clones, and Living Beyond 100: How Far Will the Biosciences Take Us?, Paul and Joyce A. Schoemaker tour the remarkable field of biosciences as it stands today, and preview the directions and innovations that are most likely to emerge in the coming years. They offer a clear, non-technical overview of crucial current developments that are likely to have enormous impact, addressing issues ranging from increased human longevity to global warming, bio-warfare to personalized medicine. Along the way, they illuminate each of the exciting technologies and hot-button issues associated with contemporary biotechnology - including stem cells, cloning, probiotics, DNA microarrays, proteomics, gene therapy, and more. Finally, in It Takes a Genome, Greg Gibson posits a revolutionary new hypothesis: our genome is out of equilibrium, both with itself and its environment. Our bodies weren’t designed to subsist on fat and sugary foods; our immune systems aren’t designed for today’s clean, bland environments; our minds aren’t designed to process hard-edged, artificial electronic inputs from dawn ‘til midnight. That, says Gibson, is why so many of us suffer from chronic diseases that barely touched our ancestors. Gibson reveals the stunningly complex ways genes cooperate and interact; illuminates the genetic “mismatches” that lead to cancer, diabetes, inflammatory and infectious diseases, AIDS, depression, and senility; and considers surprising new evidence for genetic variations in human psychology. From world-renowned leaders and experts, including Karl S. Drlica, David S. Perlin, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Joyce A. Schoemaker, and Greg Gibson
The long-awaited textbook on the developing field of decision sciences. This book compares different types of decision making and emphasises the link between problem finding and problem solving.
The key scientific discoveries of the 21st century will emerge from the biosciences. These discoveries will impact our lives in ways we can only now begin to imagine. In this book, two of the field's leading experts help us imagine those impacts. Paul and Joyce A. Schoemaker tour the remarkable field of biosciences as it stands today, and preview the directions and innovations that are most likely to emerge in the coming years. They offer a clear, non-technical overview of crucial current developments that are likely to have enormous impact, and address issues ranging from increased human longevity to global warming, bio-warfare to personalized medicine. Along the way, they illuminate each of the exciting technologies and hot-button issues associated with contemporary biotechnology - including stem cells, cloning, probiotics, DNA microarrays, proteomics, gene therapy, and a whole lot more. The Schoemakers identify emerging economic, political, and technical drivers and obstacles that are likely to powerfully impact the way the biosciences progress. Then, drawing on Paul Schoemaker's unsurpassed experience helping global organizations prepare for the future, the authors sketch multiple long-term scenarios for the biosciences - and reveal how they will impact your health, family, career, society, even the Earth itself.
Is your business playing it safe—or taking the right risks? If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help your company make smart decisions and thrive, even when the future is unclear. This book will inspire you to: Avoid the most common errors in risk management Understand the three distinct categories of risk and tailor your risk-management processes accordingly Embrace uncertainty as a key element of breakthrough innovation Adopt best practices for mitigating political threats Upgrade your organization's forecasting capabilities to gain a competitive edge Detect and neutralize cyberattacks originating inside your company This collection of articles includes "Managing Risks: A New Framework," by Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes; "How to Build Risk into Your Business Model," by Karan Girotra and Serguei Netessine; "The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management," by Nassim N. Taleb, Daniel G. Goldstein, and Mark W. Spitznagel; "From Superstorms to Factory Fires: Managing Unpredictable Supply-Chain Disruptions," by David Simchi-Levi, William Schmidt, and Yehua Wei; "Is It Real? Can We Win? Is It Worth Doing?: Managing Risk and Reward in an Innovation Portfolio," by George S. Day; “Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company's Judgment," by Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Philip E. Tetlock; "Managing 21st-Century Political Risk," by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart; "How to Scandal-Proof Your Company," by Paul Healy and George Serafeim; "Beating the Odds When You Launch a New Venture," by Clark Gilbert and Matthew Eyring; "The Danger from Within," by David M. Upton and Sadie Creese; and "Future-Proof Your Climate Strategy," by Joseph E. Aldy and Gianfranco Gianfrate.
In this valuable book, Paul Schoemaker summarizes recent experimental and field research that he and others have undertaken regarding the descrip tive validity of expected utility theory as a model of choice under uncer tainty. His principal message is that this paradigm is too narrow in its con ception and misses some of the important elements of a descriptive model of individual choice. In particular, Schoemaker calls attention to the impor tance of individual differences, task effects, and context effects as they influence behavior. The expected utility hypothesis has come under scrutiny in recent years from a number of different quarters. This book brings together these many studies and relates them to the large body of literature on individual de cision making under risk. Although this paradigm may be appropriate for describing behavior under many conditions of uncertainty, Schoemaker presents convincing evidence that it does not do well with respect to protec tion against low-probability events. For example, he shows that the insur ance purchase decision is influenced by the way information is presented to the client, as well as by the statistical knowledge of the respondents.
Thank you for visiting our website. Would you like to provide feedback on how we could improve your experience?
This site does not use any third party cookies with one exception — it uses cookies from Google to deliver its services and to analyze traffic.Learn More.