This book proposes a renewal of 'Open Regionalism' in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) aimed at achieving the region's goals of high growth with stability. The LAC region experienced a growth spurt with equity during the first decade of the 21st Century. It is well understood that an unsustainable demand boom fueled by terms-of-trade improvements drove this growth acceleration episode, especially in South America. Unfortunately, terms of trade are no longer fueling growth, and the region’s policymakers are in search of new sources of growth with stability. With the experience of East Asia and the Pacific in mind, many policymakers in LAC are looking to international economic ties as a potential source of stable growth. The challenge highlighted in this book lies in designing an integration agenda comprising trade and factor market integration that is conducive to region-wide efficiency gains, which can help LAC enhance its global competitiveness. The forces of geography imply that pro-growth global integration cannot be achieved without building a strong neighborhood. Thus, this volume argues that LAC's regional economic integration agenda needs to go well beyond the current spaghetti bowl of preferential trading arrangements.
Entrepreneurship is a fundamental driver of growth, development, and job creation. While Latin America and the Caribbean has a wealth of entrepreneurs, firms in the region, compared to those in other regions, are small in size and less likely to grow or innovate. Productivity growth has remained lackluster for decades, including during the recent commodity boom. Enhancing the creation of good jobs and accelerating productivity growth in the region will require dynamic entrepreneurs. Latin American Entrepreneurs: Many Firms but Little Innovation studies the landscape of entrepreneurship in Latin America and the Caribbean. Utilizing new datasets that cover issues such as firm creation, firm dynamics, export decisions, and the behavior of multinational corporations, the book synthesizes the results of a comprehensive analysis of the status, prospects, and challenges of entrepreneurship in the region. Useful tools and information are provided to help policy makers and practitioners identify policy areas governments can explore to enhance innovation and encourage high-growth, transformational entrepreneurship.
This paper studies Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) trade performance in recent years and estimates the salience of key country-specific factors in explaining underperformance in some sub-regions within LAC. First, the paper documents that, while the average country in the region displays aggregate trade values that are consistent with a standard gravity model, there is substantial heterogeneity across sub-regions and product-types. The paper then estimates an augmented gravity specification that includes proxies for the quality of infrastructure, the availability and quality of factors of production, and governance. Results point to infrastructure and customs regulation as key factors explaining undertrading in manufacturing in most sub-regions. Factors of production partly explain South America’s underpeformance in manufacturing while governance explains undertrading across most product groups, but neither set of factors play a significant role in other sub-regions.
We study the link between central bank independence and inflation by providing narrative and empiricial evidence based on Latin America’s experience over the past 100 years. We present a novel historical dataset of central bank independence for 17 Latin American countries and recount the rocky journey traveled by Latin America to achieve central bank independence and price stability. After their creation as independent institutions, central bank independence was eroded in the 1930s at the time of the Great Depression and following the abandonement of the gold exchange standard. Then, by the 1940s, central banks turned into de facto development banks under the aegis of governments, sawing the seeds for high inflation. It took the high inflation episodes of the 1970s and 1980s and the associated major decline in real income, and growing social discontent, to grant central banks political and operational independence to focus on fighting inflation starting in the 1990s. The empirical evidence confirms the strong negative association between central bank independence and inflation and finds that improvements in independence result in a steady decline in inflation. It also shows that high levels of central bank independence are associated with reductions in the likelihood of high inflation episodes, especially when accompanied by reductions in central bank financing to the central government.
This paper explores the macroeconomic impact of social unrest, using a novel index based on news reports. The findings are threefold. First, unrest has an adverse effect on economic activity, with GDP remaining on average 0.2 percentage points below the pre-shock baseline six quarters after a one-standard deviation increase in the unrest index. This is driven by sharp contractions in manufacturing and services (sectoral dimension), and consumption (demand dimension). Second, unrest lowers confidence and raises uncertainty; however, its adverse effect on GDP can be mitigated by strong institutions and by a country’s policy space. Third, an unrest “event”, which is captured by a large change in the unrest index, is associated with a 1 percentage point reduction in GDP six quarters after the event. Impacts differ by type of event: episodes motivated by socio-economic reasons result in sharper GDP contractions compared to those associated with politics/elections, and events triggered by a combination of both factors lead to sharpest contractions. Results are not driven by countries with adverse growth trajectories prior to unrest events or by fiscal consolidations, and are robust to instrumenting via regional unrest.
We study the evolution of trade globalization in a set of countries in Latin America (mostly the largest ones) and Asia over the past 25 years. Relying on structural gravity models, we first estimate a proxy of trade globalization that captures the ease of trading internationally with respect to trading domestically. Results indicate that the evolution of trade globalization since the mid-1990s has been similar between the two regions, but very heterogeneous within them. Trade globalization has been particularly strong in agriculture, mining and manufacturing, but has lagged in services. The paper also documents that trade globalization has been particularly strong in agriculture, mining and manufacturing, but it lagged in services. Within region heterogeneity is associated to a set of trade policy instruments, including tariffs, non-tariff measures, WTO membership. and trade agreements. Next, we quantify the economic implications of the estimated globalization trends. Simulations of a multi-sector trade model point to heterogeneous long-term impacts of globalization on GDP—some countries exhibiting substantial gains and others experiencing large losses—, with no single sector playing a preponderant role.
Labor markets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are characterized by high levels of informality and relatively rigid regulation. This paper shows that these two features are related and together make the speed of adjustment of employment to shocks slower, especially when regulations are tightly enforced. Evidence suggests that strict labor market regulations also have an adverse effect on medium-term growth. While both regulations on prices (minimum wages) and quantities (employment protection) decrease the speed of adjustment to shocks, they appear to be binding in different phases of the cycle—the former affects mostly the (net) job creation margin and the latter the (net) job destruction margin. The results also highlight possible interactions between labor market regulations and the effectiveness of macro-stabilization tools—including exchange rate depreciation.
Innovation in low-carbon technologies (LCTs), which is essential in the fight against climate change, has slowed in recent years. This Staff Discussion Note shows that a global climate policy strategy can bolster innovation in, and deployment of, LCTs. Countries that expand their climate policy portfolio exhibit higher (1) climate-change-mitigation-patent filings, (2) LCT trade flows, and (3) “green” foreign direct investment flows. Importantly, boosting innovation in, and deployment of, LCTs yields medium-term growth, which mitigates potential costs from climate policies. This note stresses the importance of international policy coordination and cooperation by showcasing evidence of potential climate policy spillovers.
Chile’s pension system came under close scrutiny in recent years. This paper takes stock of the adequacy of the system and highlights its challenges. Chile’s defined contribution system was quite influential when introduced, and was taken as an example by other countries. However, it is now delivering low replacement rates relative to OECD peers, as its parameters did not adapt over time to changing demographics and global returns, while informality persists in the labor market. In the absence of reforms, the system’s inability to deliver adequate outcomes for a large share of participants will continue to magnify, as demographic trends and low global interest rates will continue to reduce replacement rates. In addition, recent legislation allowing for pension savings withdrawals to counter the effects from the COVID-19 pandemic, is projected to further reduce replacement rates and increase fiscal costs. A substantial improvement in replacement rates is feasible, via a reform that raises contribution rates and the retirement age, coupled with policies that increases workers’ contribution density.
Curbing carbon emissions to meet the targets set in the Paris Agreement requires the deployment of low carbon technologies (LCTs) at a global scale. This paper assesses the role of climate and trade policies in fostering LCT diffusion through trade. Leveraging a comprehensive database of climate policies and a new database identifying trade in low carbon technologies and the tariffs applied to these goods, this paper shows that the introduction of new climate policies has a positive and significant impact on LCT imports. Zooming into specific climate policies, the paper finds that, except for non-binding ones, all climate policies stimulate LCT imports. The paper also highlights the role of trade policies as an engine of LCT diffusion—reductions in tariffs applied on LCT goods have a sizeable impact on LCT imports. On the flip side, results suggest that more protectionist measures would impede the spread of low-carbon technologies.
We use panel quantile regressions to study extreme (rather than average) movements in the distribution of the real effective exchange rate (REER) of small open economies. We document that global uncertainty (VIX) and global financial conditions (U.S. monetary policy) shocks have a strong impact on the distribution of the REER changes, with larger impacts in the tails of the distribution, and especially in economies with shallower FX markets, lower central bank credibility, and higher credit risk (i.e., weaker macro fundamentals). Foreign exchange intervention (FXI) partially offsets the impact of these shocks, especially in the left tail (large depreciations) and particularly in economies with weaker fundamentals but, more importantly, when FXI is used sporadically. Thus, our results highlight the importance of deepening FX markets, improving central bank credibility, and strengthening macro fundamentals against the potential dynamic trade-offs of overreliance on a policy that would exacerbate the previously mentioned frictions. While our results point to low effectiveness of capital flow management in preventing large REER movements, they seem to enable more impactful foreign exchange intervention in the immediate aftermath of shocks.
This paper assesses the role of climate policies as a catalyst of low carbon technologies deployment through foreign direct investment (FDI). Leveraging detailed cross-border project-level information, it identifies “green” FDI and finds that a higher number of active climate policies is associated with higher levels of green FDI inflows. Importantly, climate policies do not appear to be linked to lower levels of non-green projects, suggesting relatively small overall costs from the green transition. The paper also finds heterogeneity across sectors and policy instruments. The association between climate policies and green projects is particularly strong in energy and manufacturing, and when the composition of the recipient's climate portfolio is tilted towards binding policies (e.g., taxes and regulation) and expenditure measures. Finally, results point to policy spillovers, whereby larger climate policy portfolios in the source country are linked to higher green FDI outflows, but green subsidies can discourage them. This, in turn, implies that subsidies could hamper efforts to deploy low-carbon technologies across countries.
We study the response of corporate investment in Emerging Markets to unexpected fiscal shocks. We find that, although firm-level investment decreases on impact following unexpected public expenditure adjustments (classical Keynesian multiplier effect), it quickly rises above pre-shock levels. The rebound in investment is facilitated by fiscal space, flexible exchange rates, and more predictable fiscal policy. We also show that the composition of fiscal adjustments matters for investment’s response—compared to public investment adjustments, reductions in public consumption lead to larger private investment contractions on impact, but drive private investment to above pre-shock levels. Finally, we exploit firm-level heterogeneity in several dimensions, including to show that corporate investment’s recovery is stronger in firms in the tradable sector and in larger and less indebted firms, and to show that the long-run benefits to economic activity of the fiscal shock appear to outweigh its short-run costs.
This semiannual report examines the short and medium-term challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) as the external factors that were instrumental in the region s recent performance recede. In particular, we address the role of the exchange rate as a counter-cyclical policy tool to buffer adverse external shocks.
The April 2015 LAC Semiannual Report covers the short-term prospects and provides an analysis of the external factors affecting the region's economic performance. The first chapter expands on LAC's economic outlook paying special attention to the global context and its effect on LAC’s economic performance. In this first Chapter we argue that the region experienced an external shock that has shaped growth in recent years, and that this shock is likely here to stay. Chapter 2 discusses the policy space available for LAC countries as they try to accommodate to the current global context. In particular, the first part of the second Chapter discusses the rather limited monetary fiscal and monetary space currently present in the region. The second part of the Chapter argues part of this limited policy space is associated to LAC’s relatively low savings rate. Moreover, the Chapter shows that in addition to the potential positive effects that higher savings could have on policy space, it could also have a beneficial effect on long-term growth.
Using individual-level survey data for both advanced economies and emerging markets spanning over 45 years for 42 countries, we show that cohorts who have had higher exposure to past inflationary episodes (levels, as well as to more persistent or to more volatile inflation), systematically express higher concerns over rising prices. The link between past high inflation exposure and expressed concerns over price stability is particularly strong when an individual’s exposure occurs in the latter part of her working-age (as in lifecycle theory). The impact of past exposure to high inflation on contemporaneous preferences over price stability increases when surveyed in the midst of high ongoing inflation and with macroeconomic instability (as measured by GDP growth volatility), but diminishes with the quality of institutions.
In this paper, we use quarterly data and a novel database on fiscal policy consolidation announcements, for a sample of advanced economies and emerging markets to quantify the effects of fiscal tightening on inflation expectations. We find that fiscal consolidation announcements reduce inflation expectations over the medium-term (three and five-years ahead), but not in the short-term (one-year ahead). There is also some evidence that consolidation announcements reduce “disagreement” about expected future inflation at longer horizons. The inflation anchoring role of consolidation announcements is enhanced by the strength of a country’s fiscal and monetary frameworks, and when fiscal and monetary policy work in tandem. In addition, we find that initial conditions matter—inflation expectation’s response to consolidation announcements is larger in periods of high contemporaneous inflation. With these results in hand, we show that the effectiveness of fiscal consolidation in controlling realized inflation depends greatly on the response of inflation expectations to consolidation announcements. These results show that fiscal policy is crucial to anchor inflation expectations and a key element of a credible disinflationary process.
Entrepreneurship is a fundamental driver of growth, development, and job creation. While Latin America and the Caribbean has a wealth of entrepreneurs, firms in the region, compared to those in other regions, are small in size and less likely to grow or innovate. Productivity growth has remained lackluster for decades, including during the recent commodity boom. Enhancing the creation of good jobs and accelerating productivity growth in the region will require dynamic entrepreneurs. Latin American Entrepreneurs: Many Firms but Little Innovation studies the landscape of entrepreneurship in Latin America and the Caribbean. Utilizing new datasets that cover issues such as firm creation, firm dynamics, export decisions, and the behavior of multinational corporations, the book synthesizes the results of a comprehensive analysis of the status, prospects, and challenges of entrepreneurship in the region. Useful tools and information are provided to help policy makers and practitioners identify policy areas governments can explore to enhance innovation and encourage high-growth, transformational entrepreneurship.
This paper studies Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) trade performance in recent years and estimates the salience of key country-specific factors in explaining underperformance in some sub-regions within LAC. First, the paper documents that, while the average country in the region displays aggregate trade values that are consistent with a standard gravity model, there is substantial heterogeneity across sub-regions and product-types. The paper then estimates an augmented gravity specification that includes proxies for the quality of infrastructure, the availability and quality of factors of production, and governance. Results point to infrastructure and customs regulation as key factors explaining undertrading in manufacturing in most sub-regions. Factors of production partly explain South America’s underpeformance in manufacturing while governance explains undertrading across most product groups, but neither set of factors play a significant role in other sub-regions.
This book proposes a renewal of 'Open Regionalism' in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) aimed at achieving the region's goals of high growth with stability. The LAC region experienced a growth spurt with equity during the first decade of the 21st Century. It is well understood that an unsustainable demand boom fueled by terms-of-trade improvements drove this growth acceleration episode, especially in South America. Unfortunately, terms of trade are no longer fueling growth, and the region’s policymakers are in search of new sources of growth with stability. With the experience of East Asia and the Pacific in mind, many policymakers in LAC are looking to international economic ties as a potential source of stable growth. The challenge highlighted in this book lies in designing an integration agenda comprising trade and factor market integration that is conducive to region-wide efficiency gains, which can help LAC enhance its global competitiveness. The forces of geography imply that pro-growth global integration cannot be achieved without building a strong neighborhood. Thus, this volume argues that LAC's regional economic integration agenda needs to go well beyond the current spaghetti bowl of preferential trading arrangements.
In this paper, we use quarterly data and a novel database on fiscal policy consolidation announcements, for a sample of advanced economies and emerging markets to quantify the effects of fiscal tightening on inflation expectations. We find that fiscal consolidation announcements reduce inflation expectations over the medium-term (three and five-years ahead), but not in the short-term (one-year ahead). There is also some evidence that consolidation announcements reduce “disagreement” about expected future inflation at longer horizons. The inflation anchoring role of consolidation announcements is enhanced by the strength of a country’s fiscal and monetary frameworks, and when fiscal and monetary policy work in tandem. In addition, we find that initial conditions matter—inflation expectation’s response to consolidation announcements is larger in periods of high contemporaneous inflation. With these results in hand, we show that the effectiveness of fiscal consolidation in controlling realized inflation depends greatly on the response of inflation expectations to consolidation announcements. These results show that fiscal policy is crucial to anchor inflation expectations and a key element of a credible disinflationary process.
The April 2015 LAC Semiannual Report covers the short-term prospects and provides an analysis of the external factors affecting the region's economic performance. The first chapter expands on LAC's economic outlook paying special attention to the global context and its effect on LAC’s economic performance. In this first Chapter we argue that the region experienced an external shock that has shaped growth in recent years, and that this shock is likely here to stay. Chapter 2 discusses the policy space available for LAC countries as they try to accommodate to the current global context. In particular, the first part of the second Chapter discusses the rather limited monetary fiscal and monetary space currently present in the region. The second part of the Chapter argues part of this limited policy space is associated to LAC’s relatively low savings rate. Moreover, the Chapter shows that in addition to the potential positive effects that higher savings could have on policy space, it could also have a beneficial effect on long-term growth.
We use panel quantile regressions to study extreme (rather than average) movements in the distribution of the real effective exchange rate (REER) of small open economies. We document that global uncertainty (VIX) and global financial conditions (U.S. monetary policy) shocks have a strong impact on the distribution of the REER changes, with larger impacts in the tails of the distribution, and especially in economies with shallower FX markets, lower central bank credibility, and higher credit risk (i.e., weaker macro fundamentals). Foreign exchange intervention (FXI) partially offsets the impact of these shocks, especially in the left tail (large depreciations) and particularly in economies with weaker fundamentals but, more importantly, when FXI is used sporadically. Thus, our results highlight the importance of deepening FX markets, improving central bank credibility, and strengthening macro fundamentals against the potential dynamic trade-offs of overreliance on a policy that would exacerbate the previously mentioned frictions. While our results point to low effectiveness of capital flow management in preventing large REER movements, they seem to enable more impactful foreign exchange intervention in the immediate aftermath of shocks.
We study the response of corporate investment in Emerging Markets to unexpected fiscal shocks. We find that, although firm-level investment decreases on impact following unexpected public expenditure adjustments (classical Keynesian multiplier effect), it quickly rises above pre-shock levels. The rebound in investment is facilitated by fiscal space, flexible exchange rates, and more predictable fiscal policy. We also show that the composition of fiscal adjustments matters for investment’s response—compared to public investment adjustments, reductions in public consumption lead to larger private investment contractions on impact, but drive private investment to above pre-shock levels. Finally, we exploit firm-level heterogeneity in several dimensions, including to show that corporate investment’s recovery is stronger in firms in the tradable sector and in larger and less indebted firms, and to show that the long-run benefits to economic activity of the fiscal shock appear to outweigh its short-run costs.
Labor markets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are characterized by high levels of informality and relatively rigid regulation. This paper shows that these two features are related and together make the speed of adjustment of employment to shocks slower, especially when regulations are tightly enforced. Evidence suggests that strict labor market regulations also have an adverse effect on medium-term growth. While both regulations on prices (minimum wages) and quantities (employment protection) decrease the speed of adjustment to shocks, they appear to be binding in different phases of the cycle—the former affects mostly the (net) job creation margin and the latter the (net) job destruction margin. The results also highlight possible interactions between labor market regulations and the effectiveness of macro-stabilization tools—including exchange rate depreciation.
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