Rui C. Mano's Books

Mask Mandates Save Lives

By: Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen,Rui C. Mano

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Mask Mandates Save Lives

By: Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen,Rui C. Mano

We quantify the effect of mask mandates in the United States. Our regression discontinuity design exploits county-level variation in COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths across the border between states with and without mandates. We find a significant and substantial effect—mask mandates reduced new weekly COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by 55, 11 and 0.7 per 100,000 inhabitants on average. Crucially, we find that the effect of mask mandates depends on the attitudes toward mask wearing at the county level, with larger effects in counties more positively inclined towards mask wearing. Our results imply that mandates saved 87,000 lives through December 19, 2020, while a nationwide mandate could have saved 58,000 additional lives. These large effects suggest that mask mandates are a crucial tool to counter pandemics, particularly if accepted widely by the population. Our results are thus also relevant for countries who will not be able to immunize large swaths of their population in the short term.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513577611

ISBN 13

9781513577616

The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

By: Rui Mano,Ms.Carolina Osorio Buitron,Mr.Luca A Ricci,Mr.Mauricio Vargas

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The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

By: Rui Mano,Ms.Carolina Osorio Buitron,Mr.Luca A Ricci,Mr.Mauricio Vargas

This paper offers an empirical model of the drivers of the level of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) that is now part of the IMF’s methodology for the assessment of external positions, including exchange rates. It constructs a measure of the level of the REER and it offers a panel regression that considers a large number of cross-sectional and time varying factors, guided by the extensive literature. Its main contribution is to enhance our understanding of the cross-sectional determinants of the level of the REER, while taking into account the time-series drivers. The framework accounts for the much larger cross-sectional variation of the level REER, and can better explain the time series variation of level REER when these are based on GDP-deflators rather than on consumer price indices. The latter suggest there may be merits to broadening the assessments to include such measures, although further analysis is required.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513511025

ISBN 13

9781513511023

The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention

Concepts and Measurement

By: Gustavo Adler,Rui Mano

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The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention

Concepts and Measurement

By: Gustavo Adler,Rui Mano

The accumulation of large foreign asset positions by many central banks through sustained foreign exchange (FX) intervention has raised questions about its associated fiscal costs. This paper clarifies conceptual issues regarding how to measure these costs both from an ex-post and an ex-ante (relevant for decision making) perspective, and estimates both marginal and total costs for 73 countries over the period 2002-13. We find ex-ante marginal costs for the median emerging market economy (EME) in the inter-quartile range of 2-5.5 percent per year; while ex-ante total costs (of sustaining FX positions) in the range of 0.2-0.7 percent of GDP per year for light interveners and 0.3-1.2 percent of GDP per year for heavy interveners. These estimates indicate that fiscal costs of sustained FX intervention (via expanding central bank balance sheets) are not negligible.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

148433230X

ISBN 13

9781484332306

Default Premium

By: Mr.Luis Catão,Rui Mano

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Default Premium

By: Mr.Luis Catão,Rui Mano

We re-assess the view that sovereigns with a history of default are charged only a small and/or short-lived premium on the interest rate warranted by observed fundamentals. Our reassessment uses a metric of such a “default premium” (DP) that is consistent with asymmetric information models and nests previous metrics, and applies it to a much broader dataset relative to earlier studies. We find a sizeable and persistent DP: in 1870-1938, it averaged 250 bps upon market re-entry, tapering to around 150 bps five years out; in 1970- 2011 the respective estimates are about 400 and 200 bps. We also find that: (i) these estimates are robust to many controls including on actual haircuts; (ii) the DP accounts for as much as 60% of the sovereign spread within five years of market re-entry; (iii) the DP rises with market exclusion spells. These findings help reconnect theory and evidence on why sovereign defaults are infrequent and earlier debt settlements are desirable.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513523503

ISBN 13

9781513523507

The Level of Productivity in Traded and Non-Traded Sectors for a Large Panel of Countries

By: Rui Mano,Marola Castillo

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The Level of Productivity in Traded and Non-Traded Sectors for a Large Panel of Countries

By: Rui Mano,Marola Castillo

This paper explains in detail the construction of series for productivity in the traded and nontraded sectors for a panel of 56 countries spanning 1989–2012. The level of productivity in each sector is defined as real value added per worker in constant 2005 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) U.S. dollars. To construct these series, we collect industry-level data from several sources, and classify individual industries as traded/non-traded using their ratio of exports to value added. Finally, we aggregate the industry data up to a traded sector and a non-traded sector, accordingly. This new dataset has two main advantages relative to existing datasets: (i) it defines more finely the traded/non-traded sectors, by drawing on much more disaggregated industry source data; and (ii) it allows for meaningful comparisons of the level of productivity across countries/sectors because sectoral productivity is adjusted by its own price level.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484319354

ISBN 13

9781484319352

Natural-Based Polymers for Biomedical Applications

By: Rui L. Reis,Nuno M. Neves,Joao F. Mano,Manuela E. Gomes,Alexandra P. Marques,Helena S. Azevedo

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Natural-Based Polymers for Biomedical Applications

By: Rui L. Reis,Nuno M. Neves,Joao F. Mano,Manuela E. Gomes,Alexandra P. Marques,Helena S. Azevedo

Polymers from natural sources are particularly useful as biomaterials and in regenerative medicine, given their similarity to the extracellular matrix and other polymers in the human body. This important book reviews the wealth of research on both tried and promising new natural-based biomedical polymers, together with their applications as implantable biomaterials, controlled-release carriers or scaffolds for tissue engineering.The first part of the book reviews the sources, processing and properties of natural-based polymers for biomedical applications. Part two describes how the surfaces of polymer-based biomaterials can be modified to improve their functionality. The third part of the book discusses the use of natural-based polymers for biodegradable scaffolds and hydrogels in tissue engineering. Building on this foundation, Part four looks at the particular use of natural-gelling polymers for encapsulation, tissue engineering and regenerative medicine. The penultimate group of chapters reviews the use of natural-based polymers as delivery systems for drugs, hormones, enzymes and growth factors. The final part of the book summarises research on the key issue of biocompatibility.Natural-based polymers for biomedical applications is a standard reference for biomedical engineers, those studying and researching in this important area, and the medical community. - Examines the sources, processing and properties of natural based polymers for biomedical applications - Explains how the surfaces of polymer based biomaterials can be modified to improve their functionality - Discusses the use of natural based polymers for hydrogels in tissue engineering, and in particular natural gelling polymers for encapsulation and regenerative medicine

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829

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Elsevier

Published Date

ISBN 10

1845694813

ISBN 13

9781845694814

Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention

A Panel Approach

By: Gustavo Adler,Noemie Lisack,Rui Mano

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Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention

A Panel Approach

By: Gustavo Adler,Noemie Lisack,Rui Mano

We study the effect of foreign exchange intervention on the exchange rate relying on an instrumental-variables panel approach. We find robust evidence that intervention affects the level of the exchange rate in an economically meaningful way. A purchase of foreign currency of 1 percentage point of GDP causes a depreciation of the nominal and real exchange rates in the ranges of [1.7-2.0] percent and [1.4-1.7] percent respectively. The effects are found to be quite persistent. The paper also explores possible asymmetric effects, and whether effectiveness depends on the depth of domestic financial markets.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513534602

ISBN 13

9781513534602

Monetary Policy Under Labor Market Power

By: Anastasia Burya,Rui Mano,Mr. Yannick Timmer,Miss Anke Weber

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Monetary Policy Under Labor Market Power

By: Anastasia Burya,Rui Mano,Mr. Yannick Timmer,Miss Anke Weber

Using the near universe of online vacancy postings in the U.S., we study the interaction between labor market power and monetary policy. We show empirically that labor market power amplifies the labor demand effects of monetary policy, while not disproportionately affecting wage growth. A search and matching model in which firms can attract workers by either offering higher wages or posting more vacancies can rationalize these findings. We also find that vacancy postings that do not require a college degree or technology skills are more responsive to monetary policy, especially when firms have labor market power. Our results help explain the “wageless” recovery after the 2008 financial crisis and the flattening of the wage Phillips curve, especially for the low-skilled, who saw stagnant wages but a robust decline in unemployment.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400211812

Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model

By: Carlos Caceres,Diego A. Cerdeiro,Rui Mano

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Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model

By: Carlos Caceres,Diego A. Cerdeiro,Rui Mano

This paper studies the potential long-term effects of three illustrative scenarios using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model calibrated to 165 countries. The first scenario estimates effects from potential U.S. auto tariffs. The second analyzes a ‘transactional deal’ between the U.S. and China to close their bilateral deficit. The third, in the absence of such a deal, considers a potential escalation in bilateral tariffs between the two countries. Some common features emerge across all three scenarios: the overall effects on GDP tend to be relatively small albeit negative in most cases, including for the U.S. However, sectoral disruptions and positive and negative spillovers to highly exposed ‘by-stander’ economies can be large. There is also heterogeneity at the subnational level in the U.S. -- richer states tend to benefit from certain scenarios. We discuss how estimated impacts depend on the extent to which the U.S. is able to re-shore production in protected sectors. These results can usefully complement estimates obtained through macroeconomic models that are better suited to capture dynamic effects, such as those stemming from trade policy uncertainty. More generally, our results both underscore the value of adhering to the existing levels of liberalization, and highlight the risks associated with a fragmentation or even a complete breakdown of the trading system.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498318444

ISBN 13

9781498318440

Sizing Up the Effects of Technological Decoupling

By: Diego A. Cerdeiro,Rui Mano,Johannes Eugster,Mr. Dirk V Muir,Mr. Shanaka J Peiris

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Sizing Up the Effects of Technological Decoupling

By: Diego A. Cerdeiro,Rui Mano,Johannes Eugster,Mr. Dirk V Muir,Mr. Shanaka J Peiris

This paper proposes channels through which technological decoupling can affect global growth, and embeds these different layers in a global dynamic macroeconomic model. Multiple scenarios are considered that differ along two dimensions: (i) the coalition of countries (hubs) that initiate the decoupling, and (ii) whether non-hub countries are also forced to decouple via ‘preferential attachment’ – i.e. by aligning themselves with the hub they trade most with. All global technology hubs lose across scenarios, and losses are largest under preferential attachment. Smaller countries with relations that straddle multiple hubs generally lose, whereas those whose trade is heavily concentrated with one hub may gain due to reduced competition under some scenarios. Technological fragmentation can lead to losses in the order of 5 percent of GDP for many economies.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513572679

ISBN 13

9781513572673

China’s Rebalancing: Recent Progress, Prospects and Policies

By: Rui Mano,Jiayi Zhang

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China’s Rebalancing: Recent Progress, Prospects and Policies

By: Rui Mano,Jiayi Zhang

While China’s growth gathered momentum in 2017, rebalancing was uneven and decelerated along many dimensions reflecting the temporary factors behind the growth pickup. Going forward, rebalancing is expected to proceed as these temporary factors recede, but elevated income inequality and leverage will remain a challenge. The authorities are already pursuing several pro-rebalancing policies which could be expanded to support each dimension of rebalancing while reducing trade-offs between them.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484380673

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9781484380673

Modeling the U.S. Climate Agenda: Macro-Climate Trade-offs and Considerations

By: Mr. Philip Barrett,Katharina Bergant,Jean Chateau,Rui Mano

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Modeling the U.S. Climate Agenda: Macro-Climate Trade-offs and Considerations

By: Mr. Philip Barrett,Katharina Bergant,Jean Chateau,Rui Mano

The run up to the 26th Climate Change Conference has brought tackling climate change to the fore of global policy making. In this context, the U.S. administration has recently unveiled new climate targets. This paper elaborates on the administration’s plans and uses two models developed at the IMF to illustrate key macro-climate trade-offs. First, a model with endogenous fuel-specific technological change shows that subsidies cannot substitute for explicit carbon pricing and that even a moderate carbon tax can greatly economize on the overall fiscal cost of the package. Second, a rich sectoral model shows that there are only very marginal economic costs from front-loading the decarbonization of the power sector but there are large accompanying environmental benefits. Regulations can be effective in the power sector because they provide an appropriate shadow cost to carbon. However, a carbon tax would still be more efficient and easier to administer. Finally, as the economy transitions away from fossil-fueled power generation, there would be a significant reallocation of labor across sectors and locations that would need to be handled carefully to limit the social costs of the transition.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1557755965

ISBN 13

9781557755964

From Polluting to Green Jobs: A Seamless Transition in the U.S.?

By: Katharina Bergant,Rui Mano,Mr. Ippei Shibata

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From Polluting to Green Jobs: A Seamless Transition in the U.S.?

By: Katharina Bergant,Rui Mano,Mr. Ippei Shibata

What are the implications of the needed climate transition for the potential reallocation of the U.S. labor force? This paper dissects green and polluting jobs in the United States across local labor markets, industries and at the household-level. We find that geography alone is not a major impediment, but green jobs tend to be systematically different than those that are either neutral or in carbon-emitting industries. Transitioning out of pollution-intensive jobs into green jobs may thus pose some challenges. However, there is a wage premium for green-intensive jobs which should encourage such transitions. To gain further insights into the impending green transition, this paper also studies the impact of the Clean Air Act. We find that the imposition of the Act caused workers to shift from pollution-intensive to greener industries, but overall employment was not affected.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400215094

Reassessing the Perimeter of Government Accounts in China

By: Rui Mano,Phil Stokoe

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Reassessing the Perimeter of Government Accounts in China

By: Rui Mano,Phil Stokoe

China’s official general government accounts do not include off-budget quasi-fiscal spending unlike the IMF’s augmented government accounts. This paper argues that the broader concept of augmented government remains relevant despite recent positive measures to separate off-budget units from the government. In fact, new avenues to finance public infrastructure, such as Special Construction Funds and Government Guided Funds, have emerged and this paper re-defines the perimeter of augmented government to include them. Finally, concrete steps for improving China’s fiscal accounts are put forward. If these steps are taken, the perimeter of general government would expand relative to official statistics but would likely be narrower than where augmented aggregates place it.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

148433213X

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9781484332139

China’s Capacity Reduction Reform and Its Impact on Producer Prices

By: Linxi Chen,Ding Ding,Rui Mano

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China’s Capacity Reduction Reform and Its Impact on Producer Prices

By: Linxi Chen,Ding Ding,Rui Mano

In late 2015, the Chinese authorities launched a policy to reduce capacity in the coal and steel industries under the wider effort of Supply-Side Structural Reforms. Around the same time, producer price inflation in China started to pick up strongly after being trapped in negative territory for more than fifty consecutive months. So what is behind this strong reflation—capacity cuts in coal and steel, or a strengthening of aggregate demand? Our empirical analyses indicate that a pickup in aggregate demand, possibly due to the government’s stimulus package in 2015-16, was the more important driver. Capacity cuts played a role in propping up coal and steel prices, explaining at most 40 percent of their price increase.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484375912

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9781484375914

Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Dataset of Public Data and Proxies

By: Gustavo Adler,Kyun Suk Chang,Rui Mano,Yuting Shao

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Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Dataset of Public Data and Proxies

By: Gustavo Adler,Kyun Suk Chang,Rui Mano,Yuting Shao

Foreign exchange intervention (FXI) is a highly debated topic. Yet, comprehensive and comparable data on FXI is hard to find. This paper provides a new dataset of FXI covering a large number of countries over the period 2000-20 at monthly and quarterly frequencies. It includes publicly available data for about 40 countries and carefully constructed proxies for 122 countries. Proxies are focused on both spot and derivative transactions that alter the central bank’s foreign currency position and account for a wide range of central bank operations, including vis-à-vis residents, the first proxy to do so to our knowledge. The paper discusses the merits of the new proxy relative to coarser measures traditionally used like the change in reserves, and potential definitional differences with published data. The paper also presents stylized facts using our newly constructed FXI proxies.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513566679

ISBN 13

9781513566672

One Shock, Many Policy Responses

By: Rui Mano,Ms.Silvia Sgherri

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One Shock, Many Policy Responses

By: Rui Mano,Ms.Silvia Sgherri

Policymakers have relied on a wide range of policy tools to cope with capital flow shocks. And yet, the effects and interaction of these policies remain under debate, as does the motivation for using them. In this paper, quantile local projections are used to estimate the entire distribution of future policy responses to portfolio flow shocks for 20 emerging markets and understand the variety of policy choices across the sample. To assuage endogeneity concerns, estimates rely on the fact that global capital flows are exogenous from the viewpoint of any one of these countries. The paper finds that: (i) policy responses to capital flow shocks are heterogeneous across countries, fat-tailed—“extreme” responses tend to be more elastic than “typical” responses—and asymmetric—“extreme” responses tend to be more elastic with respect to outflows than to inflows; (ii) country characteristics are linked to policy choices—with cross-country differences in forex intervention relating to the size of balance sheet vulnerabilities and the depth of the forex market; (iii) the use of targeted macroprudential policy and capital flows management measures can help “free the hands” of monetary policy by allowing it to focus more squarely on domestic cyclical developments.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513521500

ISBN 13

9781513521503

China’s High Savings: Drivers, Prospects, and Policies

By: Ms.Longmei Zhang,Mr.Ray Brooks,Ding Ding,Haiyan Ding,Jing Lu,Rui Mano

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China’s High Savings: Drivers, Prospects, and Policies

By: Ms.Longmei Zhang,Mr.Ray Brooks,Ding Ding,Haiyan Ding,Jing Lu,Rui Mano

China’s high national savings rate—one of the highest in the world—is at the heart of its external/internal imbalances. High savings finance elevated investment when held domestically, or lead to large external imbalances when they flow abroad. Today, high savings mostly emanate from the household sector, resulting from demographic changes induced by the one-child policy and the transformation of the social safety net and job security that occured during the transition from planned to market economy. Housing reform and rising income inequality also contribute to higher savings. Moving forward, demographic changes will put downward pressure on savings. Policy efforts in strengthening the social safety net and reducing income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and boost consumption.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484391020

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9781484391020

Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model

By: Rui Mano

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Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model

By: Rui Mano

This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China’s move up the value chain in particular has the potential for significant spillovers – on the one hand, adversely affecting industrialized economies heavily involved in the Asia value chain, while at the same time generating positive spillovers to lower and middle income countries. The model’s strength lies in endogenously capturing production value chains and international trade of goods across sectors.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475553749

ISBN 13

9781475553741

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