Oil, Jihad and Destiny is a thought-provoking research report on oil depletion. It provides a comprehensive examination of world oil reserves and production, reviews the cultural challenges of the Middle East, analyzes the economic impact of four alternative oil depletion scenarios, and outlines a proposed course of action to enable a 'soft landing'. World oil production and consumption are evaluated by geographic region. This evaluation, along with a projection of how oil depletion is expected to influence inflation, unemployment, economic growth and the price of gas, is presented in multiple tables and charts.The Revised Edition of Oil, Jihad and Destiny uses historical data from 1970 through 2006 as a basis for analysis, projects the underlying trends through 2030, and includes an updated version of the analytical model. Four scenarios are discussed: a projection of current Production trends, how these trends are modified by tripling the consumption of alternative fuels, and a further modification based on the assumption the United States also reduces its oil consumption by 25 percent (as proposed by some global warming advocates). The forth scenario illustrates the economic impact of a Political Crisis.Oil depletion will create the economic conditions for cultural chaos and extensive lifestyle change. We can, however, engineer a 'soft landing' if we have the collective will. This report describes multiple recommendations to ease our transition to a world without enough oil.
This book addresses the role of statistics and probability in the evaluation of forensic evidence, including both theoretical issues and applications in legal contexts. It discusses what evidence is and how it can be quantified, how it should be understood, and how it is applied (and, sometimes, misapplied). After laying out their philosophical position, the authors begin with a detailed study of the likelihood ratio. Following this grounding, they discuss applications of the likelihood ratio to forensic questions, in the abstract and in concrete cases. The analysis of DNA evidence in particular is treated in great detail. Later chapters concern Bayesian networks, frequentist approaches to evidence, the use of belief functions, and the thorny subject of database searches and familial searching. Finally, the authors provide commentary on various recommendation reports for forensic science. Written to be accessible to a wide audience of applied mathematicians, forensic scientists, and scientifically-oriented legal scholars, this book is a must-read for all those interested in the mathematical and philosophical foundations of evidence and belief.
Including recent research findings from terrestrial satellite imagery, the study of planetary landscapes, and advances in laboratory work, this also covers the environmental processes involved in desertification and the solution of planning and
This monograph has been written in the hope that it will prove of value to medical students and clinicians, to Honours undergradu ates in appropriate branches of the natural sciences, and to repro ductive biologists in general. It would be pleasing if the text also caught the attention of veterinary undergraduates, since there is much information bearing on reproduction in domestic animals. First and foremost, however, the intended audience is a medical one, for scientific studies of human reproduction have been cata lyzed by the intense interest in procedures of fertilization in vitro. Some would judge that this very activity has narrowed our view of physiological events occurring within the Fallopian tubes. The pre sent work may therefore serve as a useful counterbalance to the overwhelming series of publications on procedures of in vitro fer tilization, and offer opportunities to those in the clinical field for extending their knowledge of the scientific background to much of the current work.
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