Romain Ranciere's Books

Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices

By: Samuel P. Fraiberger,Do Lee,Mr.Damien Puy,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices

By: Samuel P. Fraiberger,Do Lee,Mr.Damien Puy,Mr.Romain Ranciere

We assess the impact of media sentiment on international equity prices using more than 4.5 million Reuters articles published across the globe between 1991 and 2015. News sentiment robustly predicts daily returns in both advanced and emerging markets, even after controlling for known determinants of stock prices. But not all news-sentiment is alike. A local (country-specific) increase in news optimism (pessimism) predicts a small and transitory increase (decrease) in local returns. By contrast, changes in global news sentiment have a larger impact on equity returns around the world, which does not reverse in the short run. We also find evidence that news sentiment affects mainly foreign – rather than local – investors: although local news optimism attracts international equity flows for a few days, global news optimism generates a permanent foreign equity inflow. Our results confirm the value of media content in capturing investor sentiment.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484389212

ISBN 13

9781484389218

Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity

By: Mr.Tamon Asonuma,Dirk Niepelt,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity

By: Mr.Tamon Asonuma,Dirk Niepelt,Mr.Romain Ranciere

Rejecting a common assumption in the sovereign debt literature, we document that creditor losses (“haircuts”) during sovereign restructuring episodes are asymmetric across debt instruments. We code a comprehensive dataset on instrument-specific haircuts for 28 debt restructurings with private creditors in 1999–2015 and find that haircuts on shorter-term debt are larger than those on debt of longer maturity. In a standard asset pricing model, we show that increasing short-run default risk in the run-up to a restructuring episode can explain the stylized fact. The data confirms the predicted relation between perceived default risk, bond prices, and haircuts by maturity.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484301099

ISBN 13

9781484301098

Inequality, Leverage and Crises

The Case of Endogenous Default

By: Mr.Michael Kumhof,Mr.Romain Ranciere,Pablo Winant

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Inequality, Leverage and Crises

The Case of Endogenous Default

By: Mr.Michael Kumhof,Mr.Romain Ranciere,Pablo Winant

The paper studies how high household leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of high-income households, a large increase in debt leverage of the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where higher leverage and crises arise endogenously in response to a growing income share of high-income households. The model matches the profiles of the income distribution, the debt-to-income ratio and crisis risk for the three decades prior to the Great Recession.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484310764

ISBN 13

9781484310762

Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances

By: Mr.Michael Kumhof,Ms.Claire Lebarz,Mr.Romain Ranciere,Mr.Alexander W. Richter,Mr.Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

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Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances

By: Mr.Michael Kumhof,Ms.Claire Lebarz,Mr.Romain Ranciere,Mr.Alexander W. Richter,Mr.Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

This paper studies the empirical and theoretical link between increases in income inequality and increases in current account deficits. Cross-sectional econometric evidence shows that higher top income shares, and also financial liberalization, which is a common policy response to increases in income inequality, are associated with substantially larger external deficits. To study this mechanism we develop a DSGE model that features workers whose income share declines at the expense of investors. Loans to workers from domestic and foreign investors support aggregate demand and result in current account deficits. Financial liberalization helps workers smooth consumption, but at the cost of higher household debt and larger current account deficits. In emerging markets, workers cannot borrow from investors, who instead deploy their surplus funds abroad, leading to current account surpluses instead of deficits.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1463930577

ISBN 13

9781463930578

Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts

By: Sophia Chen,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts

By: Sophia Chen,Mr.Romain Ranciere

We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475567685

ISBN 13

9781475567687

Power Laws in Firm Size and Openness to Trade

Measurement and Implications

By: Mr.Andrei A. Levchenko,Mr.Julian Di Giovanni,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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Power Laws in Firm Size and Openness to Trade

Measurement and Implications

By: Mr.Andrei A. Levchenko,Mr.Julian Di Giovanni,Mr.Romain Ranciere

Existing estimates of power laws in firm size typically ignore the impact of international trade. Using a simple theoretical framework, we show that international trade systematically affects the distribution of firm size: the power law exponent among exporting firms should be strictly lower in absolute value than the power law exponent among non-exporting rms. We use a dataset of French firms to demonstrate that this prediction is strongly supported by the data. While estimates of power law exponents have been used to pin down parameters in theoretical and quantitative models, our analysis implies that the existing estimates are systematically lower than the true values. We propose two simple ways of estimating power law parameters that take explicit account of exporting behavior.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1455200689

ISBN 13

9781455200689

A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk

By: Mr.Romain Ranciere,Aaron Tornell,Mr.Athanasios Vamvakidis

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A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk

By: Mr.Romain Ranciere,Aaron Tornell,Mr.Athanasios Vamvakidis

This paper constructs a new measure of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for bank lending to unhedged borrowers. This measure explicitly takes into account the indirect exchange rate risk that banks undertake when they lend to borrowers that will not be able to repay in the event of a sharp depreciation. Such systemic risk taking is not captured by indicators that are based only on banks’ balance sheet data. The new measure is constructed for 10 emerging European economies and for a broader sample that includes 19 additional emerging economies, for the period 1998 - 2008. Comparisons with previous currency mismatch measures that do not adjust for unhedged foreign currency borrowing illustrate the advantages of the new approach. In particular, the new measure flagged the indirect currency mismatch vulnerabilities that were building up in a number of emerging economies before the recent global crisis. Measuring currency mismatch more accurately can help country authorities in their efforts to address vulnerabilities at the right time, avoiding hurting growth prospects.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1455210706

ISBN 13

9781455210701

Fiction and Philosophy in the Zhuangzi

An Introduction to Early Chinese Taoist Thought

By: Romain Graziani

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Fiction and Philosophy in the Zhuangzi

An Introduction to Early Chinese Taoist Thought

By: Romain Graziani

Brimming with mythical imagination, poetic sallies, and often ferociously witty remarks, the Zhuangzi is one of China's greatest literary and philosophical masterpieces. Yet the complexities of this classical text can make it a challenging read. This English translation leads you confidently through the comic scenes and virtuoso writing style, introducing all the little stories Zhuangzi invented and unpicking its philosophical insights through close commentaries and helpful asides. Romain Graziani opens up the text as never before, showing how Zhuangzi uses the stories as an answer to Mencius's conception of sacrifice and self-cultivation, restoring the critical interplay with Confucius' Analects, and guiding you through the themes of the animal world, sacrifice, political violence, meditation, illness, and death. In Graziani's translation, the co-founder of Taoism emerges as a remarkable thinker: a dedicated disparager of moral virtues who stubbornly resists any form of allegiance to social norms and the only Warring States figure to improvise with the darkest irony on the weaknesses of men and their docile subservience to the unquestioned authority of language. For anyone coming to Chinese philosophy or the Zhuangzi for the first time, this introduction and translation is a must-read, one that reminds us of the importance of thinking beyond our limited, everyday perspectives.

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217

Publisher

Bloomsbury Publishing

Published Date

ISBN 10

1350124346

ISBN 13

9781350124349

Inequality, Leverage and Crises

By: Mr.Michael Kumhof,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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Inequality, Leverage and Crises

By: Mr.Michael Kumhof,Mr.Romain Ranciere

The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes. A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction. But restoration of the lower income group's bargaining power is more effective.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1455210757

ISBN 13

9781455210756

Inequality, Leverage and Crises

The Case of Endogenous Default

By: Mr.Michael Kumhof,Mr.Romain Ranciere,Pablo Winant

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Inequality, Leverage and Crises

The Case of Endogenous Default

By: Mr.Michael Kumhof,Mr.Romain Ranciere,Pablo Winant

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484310764

ISBN 13

9781484310762

Power Laws in Firm Size and Openness to Trade

Measurement and Implications

By: Mr.Andrei A. Levchenko,Mr.Julian Di Giovanni,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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Power Laws in Firm Size and Openness to Trade

Measurement and Implications

By: Mr.Andrei A. Levchenko,Mr.Julian Di Giovanni,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455200689

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9781455200689

Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances

By: Mr.Michael Kumhof,Ms.Claire Lebarz,Mr.Romain Ranciere,Mr.Alexander W. Richter,Mr.Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

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Income Inequality and Current Account Imbalances

By: Mr.Michael Kumhof,Ms.Claire Lebarz,Mr.Romain Ranciere,Mr.Alexander W. Richter,Mr.Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1463930577

ISBN 13

9781463930578

Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity

By: Mr.Tamon Asonuma,Dirk Niepelt,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity

By: Mr.Tamon Asonuma,Dirk Niepelt,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484301099

ISBN 13

9781484301098

Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices

By: Samuel P. Fraiberger,Do Lee,Mr.Damien Puy,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices

By: Samuel P. Fraiberger,Do Lee,Mr.Damien Puy,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484390938

ISBN 13

9781484390931

Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts

By: Sophia Chen,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts

By: Sophia Chen,Mr.Romain Ranciere

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475567685

ISBN 13

9781475567687

A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk

By: Mr.Romain Ranciere,Aaron Tornell,Mr.Athanasios Vamvakidis

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A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk

By: Mr.Romain Ranciere,Aaron Tornell,Mr.Athanasios Vamvakidis

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1455210706

ISBN 13

9781455210701

Look

By: Romain Villet

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Look

By: Romain Villet

Lucien est pianiste de jazz. Il est aveugle. Un soir, il rencontre Sophie, une architecte qui plane dans l'air du temps. Avec elle, sortant de sa nuit presque noire, guidé par cette main rassurante dans les tourbillons colorés de la société de l'image, il entrevoit bientôt un avenir. Mais, un jour, Sophie ressent le besoin de voyager. Voir du pays? Lucien résiste, lui le détracteur du tourisme de masse, du fun et des charters, lui le casanier qui ne voyage d'ordinaire que par la musique ou les mots. Il accepte pourtant de la suivre pour un trek au Maroc... Look : une histoire de voyage et de solitude, de clairvoyance et d'aveuglements, d'harmonies et de dissonances amoureuses.

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Page Count

115

Publisher

Editions Gallimard

Published Date

ISBN 10

2072529549

ISBN 13

9782072529542

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