An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.
This book argues that economists need to reengage with societal issues, such as justice and fairness in distribution, that inevitably arise when discussing the basic economic problem of unlimited human wants and finite resources. Approaching the problem through a history of economic thought, Johnson reexamines Adam Smith’s contributions to show how they reach beyond neoclassical models that are too simplistic to reflect the growing interdependencies of market economies. He breaks down supposedly value-free neoclassical postulates to expose normative assumptions about economics and justice, demonstrating, for example, that the concept of market equilibrium is problematic because need-based behavior can produce involuntary unemployment even when a competitive labor market achieves equilibrium.
OPEC Buhl and Sir Ian Shag are called into another mission to deal with Tom Thumb because he works for the Saudi Arabia Mafia that operates in Italy and he wants to assassinate two British agents who are imposters working as the Prime Minister of Italy and the Premier of the Soviet Union. Also they will have to stop two KJB agents who want to steal British secrets from the British Department of Defence. Miss Cinderella and Mister Underwear. So read and find out.
Kosher USA follows the fascinating journey of kosher food through the modern industrial food system. It recounts how iconic products such as Coca-Cola and Jell-O tried to become kosher; the contentious debates among rabbis over the incorporation of modern science into Jewish law; how Manischewitz wine became the first kosher product to win over non-Jewish consumers (principally African Americans); the techniques used by Orthodox rabbinical organizations to embed kosher requirements into food manufacturing; and the difficulties encountered by kosher meat and other kosher foods that fell outside the American culinary consensus. Kosher USA is filled with big personalities, rare archival finds, and surprising influences: the Atlanta rabbi Tobias Geffen, who made Coke kosher; the lay chemist and kosher-certification pioneer Abraham Goldstein; the kosher-meat magnate Harry Kassel; and the animal-rights advocate Temple Grandin, a strong supporter of shechita, or Jewish slaughtering practice. By exploring the complex encounter between ancient religious principles and modern industrial methods, Kosher USA adds a significant chapter to the story of Judaism's interaction with non-Jewish cultures and the history of modern Jewish American life as well as American foodways.
Section 1. Epidemiology and risk factors. ch. 1.1. Epidemiology of myopia and myopic shift in refraction / Barbara E.K. Klein. ch. 1.2. Environmental risk factors for myopia in children / Wilson C.J. Low, Tien-Yin Wong and Seang-Mei Saw. ch. 1.3. Gene-environment interactions in the aetiology of myopia / Ian G. Morgan and Kathryn A. Rose. ch. 1.4. The economics of myopia / Marcus C.C. Lim and Kevin D. Frick -- Section 2. Clinical studies and pathologic myopia. ch. 2.1. Quality of life and myopia / Ecosse L. Lamoureux and Hwee-Bee Wong. ch. 2.2. Ocular morbidity of pathological myopia / V. Swetha E. Jeganathan, Seang-Mei Saw and Tien-Yin Wong. ch. 2.3. Myopia and glaucoma / Shamira A. Perera and Tin Aung. ch. 2.4. The myopic retina / Shu-Yen Lee. ch. 2.5. Retinal function / Chi D. Luu and Audrey W.L. Chia -- Section 3. Genetics of myopia. ch. 3.1. New approaches in the genetics of myopia / Liang K. Goh, Ravikanth Metlapally and Terri Young. ch. 3.2. Twins studies and myopia / Maria Schäche and Paul N. Baird. ch. 3.3. TIGR, TGFB1, cMET, HGF, collagen genes, and myopia / Chiea-Chuen Khor. ch. 3.4. Statistical analysis of genome-wide association studies for myopia / Yi-Ju Li and Qiao Fan -- Section 4. Animal models and the biological basis of myopia. ch. 4.1. The relevance of studies in chicks for understanding myopia in humans / Josh Wallman and Debora L. Nickla. ch. 4.2. The mechanisms regulating scleral change in myopia / Neville A. McBrien. ch. 4.3. The mouse model of myopia / Frank Schaeffel. ch. 4.4. Gene analysis in experimental animal models of myopia / Roger W. Beuerman, Liang K. Goh and Veluchamy A. Barathi -- Section 5. Interventions for myopia. ch. 5.1. Atropine and other pharmacological approaches to prevent myopia / Louis M.G. Tong, Veluchamy A. Barathi and Roger W. Beuerman. ch. 5.2. Physical factors in myopia and potential therapies / Wallace S. Foulds and Chi D. Luu
Sports Economics, the most comprehensive textbook in the field by celebrated economist Roger D. Blair, focuses primarily on the business and economics aspects of major professional sports and the NCAA. It employs the basic principles of economics to address issues such as the organization of leagues, pricing, advertising and broadcasting as well as the labor market in sports. Among its novel features is the candid coverage of the image and integrity of players, teams, managers and the leagues themselves, including cases of gambling, cheating, misconduct and steroids. Blair explains how economic decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty using the well-known expected utility model and makes extensive use of present value concepts to analyze investment decisions. Numerous examples are drawn from the daily press. The text offers ample boxes to illustrate sports themes, as well as extensive use of diagrams, tables, problem sets and research questions.
A biography of a premier French scientist of the Enlightenment and the director of France's Royal Botanical Garden, using Buffon's enormous literary production as the major source of insight into his and his age's beliefs about the natural world. Includes bandw illustrations from his Natural History. First published in 1989 as Buffon, un philosophe au Jardin du Roi, by Librarie Artheme Fayard. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
The 2nd North Carolina Cavalry fought its first major battle in its home state at New Bern on March 14, 1862, and narrowly escaped with its men and reputation intact. The regiment was nearly decimated in the Gettysburg Campaign, but was rebuilt and later fought with Robert E. Lee's cavalry in most major battles, including Appomattox Court House on April 9, 1865, with only a handful of men. This history covers not only the 2nd North Carolina Cavalry's accomplishments and failures, but the events going on around them which influenced their actions and performance. The author pays particular attention to the 2nd North Carolina's involvement with the Army of Northern Virginia and the North Carolina Cavalry Brigade, and includes official documents, letters written to and from home, diaries and memoirs to present the soldiers' war experiences.
Stakeholders today want to know about your company’s social and environmental performance. Effectively communicating these topics has become critical to economic success. This book offers an extensive toolbox of the most effective instruments that can help you, and each chapter provides specific examples of how to communicate social and cause-related marketing, sustainability reporting, issues and crisis communication, vision, mission statements and codes, and web-based stakeholder communication. You will find hands-on concepts and actual illustrations. Chapter cases provide rich practical coverage and translate concepts into solutions for dayto- day business realities.
Everyone knows the supposed life story of Paul the apostle, but then again they may not. As it is generally drawn from the book of Acts, Paul had a dramatic conversion on the “road to Damascus,” undertook “three missionary journeys,” and returned a final time to Jerusalem. He was arrested for creating a riot, held prisoner in Caesarea, and upon his appeal to Caesar was finally transported to Rome as a prisoner. Dotted, dashed, or colored lines on countless numbers of maps document Paul’s “three missionary journeys” and his journey to Rome, as these are commonly discerned in the book of Acts. Paul’s letters and the book of Acts itself, however, may tell a different story than the one customarily perceived—perhaps a less familiar story, but perhaps a more factual one. The Ministry of Paul the Apostle represents a significant paradigm shift for understanding Paul’s ministry which involves two major campaigns, an ordered awareness of Paul’s ministry as far as Illyricum, a revision of Paul’s Corinthian ministry, an historical confirmation of visits to Jerusalem, an appropriate ordering and reaffirmation of Paul’s letters, including Romans 16 as a letter to Ephesus. In addition, the current study offers a new paradigm for correlation between our sources of Paul’s letters and the book of Acts, with the development of an underlying source tradition behind Acts. The reader is thus invited to participate in a significant re-evaluation of Paul’s ministry and a proposed solution to a long-standing mystery of correlation between Paul’s letters and Acts. When one travels with Paul, one engages in a voyage of discovery. This book makes sense of the mystery of Paul’s ministry, which when properly understood, becomes an illuminating foundational window of clarity for sorting out a bewildering multitude of theological formulations of the enigmas of Paul’s thought. It is through a thorough awareness of the ministry of Paul that one comes to appreciate the contextual nature and depth of Paul’s theological thought. One comes to a new appreciation of Paul’s place in early Christianity, relevant even for those who live in a post-modern age.
Containing reviews written from January 2002 to mid-June 2004, including the films "Seabiscuit, The Passion of the Christ," and "Finding Nemo," the best (and the worst) films of this period undergo Ebert's trademark scrutiny. It also contains the year's interviews and essays, as well as highlights from Ebert's film festival coverage from Cannes.
Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition, and today's security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats. This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global Jihad to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.
Drafted when he was 37 years old, this is the story of Dale Hubley - his life and service during World War II as a member of the Seventh Armored Division in Patton's Third Army. Being drafted when he was older change his life in many way but he was never bitter. He would always say, "I was one of the lucky ones, I got to come home." This positive attitude is what shaped Dale's life.
This book contains the proceedings of a symposium held at the College of Charleston, Charleston, South Carolina, USA, 16-20 June 1986. The seed for this symposium arose from a group of physiologists , soU scientists and biochemists that met in Leningrad, USSR in July 1975 at the 12th Botanical Conference in a Session organized by Professor B.B. Vartepetian. This group and others later conspired to contribute to a book entitled Plant Life in Anaerobic Environments (eds. D. D. Hook and R. M. M. Crawford, Ann Arbor Science, 1978). Several contributors to the book suggested in 1983 that a broad-scoped symposium on wetlands would be useful (a) in facilitating communication among the diverse research groups involved in wetlands research (b) in bringing researchers and managers together and (c) in presenting a com prehensive and balanced coverage on the status of ecology ami management of wetlands from a global perspective. With this encouragement, the senior editor organized a Plan ning Committee that encompassed expertise from many disciplines of wetland scientists and managers. This Committee, with input from their colleagues around the world, organized a symposium that addressed almost every aspect of wetland ecology and management.
Discusses the irrational, risk-taking decisions of overconfident leaders which led to a seminal turning point in world history that shaped the twentieth century.
Provocative and compelling…[a] wild ride through Civil War history."—Library Journal What if Lee had avoided defeat at Gettysburg? What if a military stalemate had developed, coupled with growing antiwar sentiment? What if Lincoln had been defeated in the 1864 election and Great Britain had recognized the Confederacy? What would have been the careers of an independent Confederate States of America and a defeated United States? "No historian has thought through such 'what if' questions as seriously as Roger Ransom," says the Washington Post Book World. A master of historical analysis, Roger L. Ransom follows the consequences of the "what if" scenario over an extended period of time, exploring such issues as the fate of slavery in a CSA, how the economies of the USA and the CSA would have developed, and how their foreign policies would have differed. The result is a fascinating historical vision that is a source of insight into the critical events of the Civil War period as they actually happened.
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Watch a Video Watch a video Download the cheat sheet for Roger Lowenstein's The End of Wall Street » The roots of the mortgage bubble and the story of the Wall Street collapse-and the government's unprecedented response-from our most trusted business journalist. The End of Wall Street is a blow-by-blow account of America's biggest financial collapse since the Great Depression. Drawing on 180 interviews, including sit-downs with top government officials and Wall Street CEOs, Lowenstein tells, with grace, wit, and razor-sharp understanding, the full story of the end of Wall Street as we knew it. Displaying the qualities that made When Genius Failed a timeless classic of Wall Street-his sixth sense for narrative drama and his unmatched ability to tell complicated financial stories in ways that resonate with the ordinary reader-Roger Lowenstein weaves a financial, economic, and sociological thriller that indicts America for succumbing to the siren song of easy debt and speculative mortgages. The End of Wall Street is rife with historical lessons and bursting with fast-paced action. Lowenstein introduces his story with precisely etched, laserlike profiles of Angelo Mozilo, the Johnny Appleseed of subprime mortgages who spreads toxic loans across the landscape like wild crabapples, and moves to a damning explication of how rating agencies helped gift wrap faulty loans in the guise of triple-A paper and a takedown of the academic formulas that-once again- proved the ruin of investors and banks. Lowenstein excels with a series of searing profiles of banking CEOs, such as the ferretlike Dick Fuld of Lehman and the bloodless Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan, and of government officials from the restless, deal-obsessed Hank Paulson and the overmatched Tim Geithner to the cerebral academic Ben Bernanke, who sought to avoid a repeat of the one crisis he spent a lifetime trying to understand-the Great Depression. Finally, we come to understand the majesty of Lowenstein's theme of liquidity and capital, which explains the origins of the crisis and that positions the collapse of 2008 as the greatest ever of Wall Street's unlearned lessons. The End of Wall Street will be essential reading as we work to identify the lessons of the market failure and start to reb...
The life and works of the mysterious Indian yogin, Saraha, who has inspired Buddhist practitioners for over a thousand years. Saraha, “the Archer,” was a mysterious but influential tenth-century Indian Buddhist tantric adept who expressed his spiritual realization in mystic songs (dohās) that are enlightening, shocking, and confounding by turns. Saraha’s poetic verses made the esoteric ideas and practices of Vajrayāna accessible to a wide audience on the Indian subcontinent and served as a basis for the exposition, in Tibet, of mahāmudrā, the great-seal meditation on the nature of mind that permeates every tradition of Buddhism on the Tibetan plateau. This is the first book to attempt a thorough treatment of the context, life, works, poetics, and teachings of Saraha. It features a search for the “historical” Saraha through evidence provided by our knowledge of the medieval Indian context in which he likely lived, the biographical legends that grew up around him in Tibet, and the works attributed to him in Indic and Tibetan text collections; a consideration of the various guises in which Saraha appears in his writings (as poet, social and religious critic, radical gnostic thinker, and more); an overview of Saraha’s poetic and religious legacy in South Asia and beyond; and complete or partial translations, from Tibetan, of over two dozen works attributed to Saraha. These include nearly all his spiritual songs, from his well-known Dohā Trilogy to obscure but important expositions of mahāmudrā, as well as several previously untranslated works.
S calls Darla Peel and Sir Ian Shag for another mission to assassinate Pier Smythe who is a wealthy French thief who lives in Paris, France. Darla and Ian must join the KJB ain order to get close to him as journalists for The London Times. They travel to Africa and discover who owns the diamonds are Miss Pantyhose and Mister Boris who also live in Saudi Arabia and also they travel to Communist Cambodia. The next thing that happens is Darla Peel, Sir Ian Shag, and Pier Smythe turns ten mountain diamond mines into a small cube and then go to Brazil to do the same thing and then go to Paris, France to discover Pier Smythe crimes with Madame Julian Christie being part of the French Communist Party. Read and find out.
Who are we and where on earth do we come from? Scientists have traced back human ancestry to tropical Africa and small primates living in trees. But what happened after that has been hotly debated, and the accepted explanations have led down blind alleys. By putting aside theories anchored in religion and perceived political imperatives anchored in post-World War II guilt, we can hope to obtain a more accurate understanding of human origins. That is the goal of this book. The story starts 6 million years ago, when the small and timid animal that was our forerunner (and the chimpanzee’s) still existed. The narrative follows the evolution of our ancestors from then, through their great achievements, such as learning to walk on two legs, finding a profitable use for the two hands, learning to communicate and then actually talk. As our tools evolved, so did our bodies. Then 1.8 million years ago, some of these early ‘people’ strayed into Europe, surviving in a freezing world and encountering challenges hitherto unknown. This is the incredible story of how Europeans evolved and populated Eurasia and onwards to the Americas. The story brings the reader to the Mesolithic when cultures, towns and trades that we are familiar with today started to emerge. Anyone interested in European, Eurasian or Native American ancestry should read this book to discover how we really came to be who we are: a story as gripping as traditional versions such as Adam and Eve, Popul Vuh and Gaia.
Eight people form a neighbourhood share club hoping to make instant money. Meetings are held turn about in their homes, and tempers flare and patience wears thin as the market fluctuates.
This book assesses the impacts of the right within the US and UK, forty years on from their initial effects upon economic and social orthodoxies. It argues that one way of understanding the main developments in the political economies of the major Anglophone countries during these decades is to see them as a conservative reaction to the New Deal and the Welfare State, and the associated growth in state intervention, expenditure and regulation. The recent rise in ‘authoritarian populism’ can be seen as a popular response to the policies associated with this reaction, the response being exploited by populist demagogues like Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and Marine Le Pen. Written in a lively and engaging manner, this book will be of interest to academics and students in politics, economics, sociology and contemporary history, as well as general readers.
It has now been over a century since Frank Hornby invented a toy to amuse his sons and called it Meccano, coining a word which has entered the dictionary as a term in common usage and is now known all over the world. Hornby's vision of an educational toy became the basis of perhaps the most successful British toy business of the twentieth century. Meccano has amused generations of children, encouraging many to become successful engineers. Roger Marriott here explores the long history of Meccano, charting the development of the various sets and components, which for decades have been interchangeable, and explains the endless fascination of this iconic construction toy.
Even though the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution grants freedom of speech and freedom of the press, laws and regulations governing media frequently evolve as the media themselves do. As a result, it is often a challenge to keep pace with new laws and regulations. Electronic Media Law is a comprehensive, up-to-date textbook on the constantly changing and often complex world of electronic media law. Author Roger L. Sadler examines the laws, regulations, and court rulings affecting broadcasting, cable, satellite, and cyberspace. The book also looks at cases from the print media and general First Amendment law, because they often contain important concepts that are relevant to the electronic media. Electronic Media Law is written for mass media students, not for future lawyers, so the text is straightforward and explains "legalese." The author covers First Amendment law, political broadcasting rules, broadcast content regulations, FCC rules for station operations, cable regulation, media ownership rules, media liability lawsuits, intrusive newsgathering methods, media restrictions during wartime, libel, privacy, copyright, advertising law, freedom of information, cameras in the court, and privilege. Key Features Provides an easy-to-use format of chapter categories and sections that facilitate research on individual topics Frequently Asked Questions highlight important points from cases Explains complex, legal concepts in basic terms that give students the foundation for further studies in electronic media law Electronic Media Law provides an understanding of the First Amendment and the American legal system with an emphasis on the electronic media. It is an excellent textbook for undergraduate and graduate students studying broadcast law and media law.
During the great oil speculations in the 1920s, both promoters and investors became victims of their common greed. Outlining the activities of several different promoters and drawing on business papers, federal court records, and local land records, the Oliens describe the legal and regulatory responses to fraud. Their fascinating story breaks new ground in American social and business history and offers new insight into the culture of American capitalism.
Framing Technology uses an interdisciplinary approach to explore some of the key issues in technology today, including virtual reality, gender, health, the environment, regulation, the information society, surveillance and globalisation.
An invaluable guide for all those who wish to develop their skills in a variety of games, ranging from the more complex, such as chess, backgammon, bridge and roulette, to the more common games played by individuals and families, this new edition is fully revised and updated and features seven new games. Illustrated throughout.
This comprehensive textbook covers common psychiatric conditions encountered in adults, children, adolescents and old people. This book provides core information you need for undergraduate examination and future clinical practices. A smartphone application is now available for free download on both the Apple ITunes store as well as on the Android Play Market. https: //itunes.apple.com/us/app/mastering-psychiatry-core/id720709591?mt=8 https: //play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tiseno.psychiatry Or simply search "Mastering Psychiatry" and you will be able to get a free preview copy of the entire book with all the multimedia features.
The key to Doniphan's prominence as a Missouri attorney, military leader, politician, and businessman from the 1830s to the 1880s lay in his persistent moderation on the critical issues of his day. The author describes Doniphan's success as a brigadier general of the Missouri State Militia in the war with Mexico in 1846, his influence as a Missouri Whig, and his choice not to fight in the Civil War. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Psychological science now reveals much about the law's response to crime. This is the first text to bridge both fields as it presents psychological research and theory relevant to each phase of criminal justice processes. The materials are divided into three parts that follow a comprehensive introduction. The introduction analyses the major legal themes and values that guide criminal justice processes and points to the many psychological issues they raise. Part I examines how the legal system investigates and apprehends criminal suspects. Topics range from the identification, searching and seizing to the questioning of suspects. Part II focuses on how the legal system establishes guilt. To do so, it centres on the process of bargaining and pleading cases, assembling juries, providing expert witnesses, and considering defendants' mental states. Part III focuses on the disposition of cases. Namely, that part highlights the process of sentencing defendants, predicting criminal tendencies, treating and controlling offenders, and determining eligibility for such extreme punishments as the death penalty. The format seeks to give readers a feeling for the entire criminal justice process and for the role psychological science has and can play in it.
From isolation to intimacy--or companionship at least--this five-step strategy offers a creative technique that enables singles to meet partners and arrange dates. The authors also teach readers how to overcome common hurdles. Charts.
`To a Taupo bach during the Christmas holidays come the family vivitors -welcome and unwelcome. Each new visitor brings new complications to what is supposed to be a peaceful holiday.
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