What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.
Classical and behavioral finance are often seen as being at odds, but the idea of “popularity” has been introduced as a way of reconciling the two approaches. Investors like or dislike various characteristics of securities for rational reasons (as in classical finance) or irrational reasons (as in behavioral finance), which makes the assets popular or unpopular. In the capital markets, popular (unpopular) securities trade at prices that are higher (lower) than they would be otherwise; hence, the shares may provide lower (higher) expected returns.This book builds on this idea and expands it in two major ways. First, it introduces a rigorous asset pricing model, the popularity asset pricing model (PAPM), which adds investor preferences for security characteristics other than the risk and expected return that are part of the capital asset pricing model. A major conclusion of the PAPM is that the expected return of any security is a linear function of not only its systematic risk (beta) but also of all security characteristics that investors care about. The other major contribution of the book is new empirical work that, while confirming the well-known premiums (such as size, value, and liquidity) in a popularity context, supports the popularity hypothesis on the basis of portfolios of stocks based on such characteristics as brand value, sustainable competitive advantage, and reputation. Popularity unifies the factors that affect price in classical finance with those that drive price in behavioral finance, thus creating a unifying theory or bridge between classical and behavioral finance.
A one-stop shop for background and current thinking on the development and uses of rates of return on capital Completely revised for this highly anticipated fifth edition, Cost of Capital contains expanded materials on estimating the basic building blocks of the cost of equity capital, the risk-free rate, and equity risk premium. There is also discussion of the volatility created by the financial crisis in 2008, the subsequent recession and uncertain recovery, and how those events have fundamentally changed how we need to interpret the inputs to the models we use to develop these estimates. The book includes new case studies providing comprehensive discussion of cost of capital estimates for valuing a business and damages calculations for small and medium-sized businesses, cross-referenced to the chapters covering the theory and data. Addresses equity risk premium and the risk-free rate, including the impact of Federal Reserve actions Explores how to use Morningstar's Ibbotson and Duff Phelps Risk Premium Report data Discusses the global cost of capital estimation, including a new size study of European countries Cost of Capital, Fifth Edition puts an emphasis on practical application. To that end, this updated edition provides readers with exclusive access to a companion website filled with supplementary materials, allowing you to continue to learn in a hands-on fashion long after closing the book.
Praise for Cost of Capital, Fourth Edition "This book is the most incisive and exhaustive treatment of this critical subject to date." —From the Foreword by Stephen P. Lamb, Esq., Partner, Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP, and former vice chancellor, Delaware Court of Chancery "Cost of Capital, Fourth Edition treats both the theory and the practical applications from the view of corporate management and investors. It contains in-depth guidance to assist corporate executives and their staffs in estimating cost of capital like no other book does. This book will serve corporate practitioners as a comprehensive reference book on this challenging topic in these most challenging economic times." —Robert L. Parkinson Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Office, Baxter International Inc., and former dean, School of Business Administration and Graduate School of Business, Loyola University of Chicago "Shannon Pratt and Roger Grabowski have consolidated information on both the theoretical framework and the practical applications needed by corporate executives and their staffs in estimating cost of capital in these ever-changing economic times. It provides guidance to assist corporate practitioners from the corporate management point of view. For example, the discussions on measuring debt capacity is especially timely in this changing credit market environment. The book serves corporate practitioners as a solid reference." —Franco Baseotto, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer, Foster Wheeler AG "When computing the cost of capital for a firm, it can be fairly said that for every rule, there are a hundred exceptions. Shannon Pratt and Roger Grabowski should be credited with not only defining the basic rules that govern the computation of the cost of capital, but also a road map to navigate through the hundreds of exceptions. This belongs in every practitioner's collection of must-have valuation books." —Aswath Damodaran, Professor, Stern School of Business, New York University "Pratt and Grabowski have done it again. Just when you thought they couldn't possibly do a better job, they did. Cost of Capital, Fourth Edition is a terrific resource. It is without a doubt the most comprehensive book on this subject today. What really distinguishes this book from other such texts is the fact that it is easy to read—no small feat given the exhaustive and detailed research and complicated subject matter. This book makes you think hard about all the alternative views out there and helps move the valuation profession forward." —James R. Hitchner, CPA/ABV/CFF, ASA, Managing Director, Financial Valuation Advisors; CEO, Valuation Products and Services; Editor in Chief, Financial Valuation and Litigation Expert; and President, Financial Consulting Group "The Fourth Edition of Cost of Capital continues to be a 'one-stop shop' for background and current thinking on the development and uses of rates of return on capital. While it will have an appeal for a wide variety of constituents, it should serve as required reading and as a reference volume for students of finance and practitioners of business valuation. Readers will continue to find the volume to be a solid foundation for continued debate and research on the topic for many years to come." —Anthony V. Aaron, Americas Leader, Quality and Risk Management, Ernst & Young Transaction Advisory Services
Ensure that you're using the most up-to-date data available: Buy the 2017 Valuation Handbook – U.S. Guide to Cost of Capital + Quarterly PDF Updates together! The New Industry Standard in Business Valuation Reference Materials 2017 Valuation Handbook – U.S. Guide to Cost of Capital provides the key annual valuation data previously published in (i) the now discontinued Morningstar/Ibbotson SBBI Valuation Yearbook (discontinued in 2013), and (ii) the Duff & Phelps Risk Premium Report Study (no longer published as a stand-alone publication). The size premia data previously published in the SBBI Valuation Yearbook is referred to as the "CRSP Deciles Size Premia" exhibits in the new 2017 Valuation Handbook – U.S. Guide to Cost of Capital, while the size and risk premia data published in the Duff & Phelps Risk Premium Report Study has been published annually since 1996 and, like the former SBBI Valuation Yearbook, provides data and methodology that can be used to develop cost of equity capital estimates using (i) the build-up method and (ii) the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The 2017 Valuation Handbook – U.S. Guide to Cost of Capital includes data through December 31, 2016, and is intended to be used for 2017 valuation dates. For more information about Duff & Phelps valuation data resources published by Wiley, please visit www.wiley.com/go/valuationhandbooks. Also Available 2017 Valuation Handbook – U.S. Industry Cost of Capital 2017 Valuation Handbook – International Guide to Cost of Capital 2017 Valuation Handbook – International Industry Cost of Capital Key Features Key cost of capital inputs: The 2017 Valuation Handbook – U.S. Guide to Cost of Capital provides the key inputs needed for developing the cost of equity capital (i.e., "discount rate") for use in estimating the value of a subject business, business ownership interest, security, or intangible asset. Inputs provided include: equity risk premia, size premia, risk premia over the risk free rate, full-information industry betas, industry risk premia, and the risk-free rate. Discussion of topics that come up most when performing valuation analysis: The 2017 Valuation Handbook – U.S. Guide to Cost of Capital includes straightforward discussions about: (i) valuation theory, (ii) the differences between the various cost of capital estimation models (build-up, CAPM, Fama-French), (iii) understanding the basic building blocks of cost of equity capital (the risk-free rate, the equity risk premium, the size premium, beta, the industry risk premium, the company-specific risk premium), (iv) whether to "normalize" risk-free rates or not, (v) a detailed comparison of the CRSP Deciles Size Premia Study (the former SBBI Valuation Yearbook data) and the Risk Premium Report Study, and more. Easy-to-follow examples: The 2017 Valuation Handbook – U.S. Guide to Cost of Capital is packed with easy-to-understand examples for properly using the data to develop levered, unlevered, and even "high-financial-risk" cost of equity capital estimates using various build-up methods and CAPM.
The Definitive Guide to Strategic Asset Allocation Uniting theory and practice--the art and science of asset allocation Investors long to beat the market, and money managers accept that as their mandate. The sad reality is that most money managers underperform the market, and individual investors do even worse. Investors also face emotional challenges. The irrational exuberance of the 1990s, for instance, can as easily derail a sensible investment strategy as the market panic accompanying the Global Financial Crisis. Since Roger Gibson wrote the first edition of this book over 25 years ago, his multiple-asset class investment approach has given investors a disciplined strategy for mitigating risks and realizing their financial goals through widely varying market environments. Grounded in the principles of modern portfolio theory, this fifth edition of his investing classic explains how and why asset allocation works. Gibson demonstrates how adding new asset classes to a portfolio improves its risk-adjusted returns and how strategic asset allocation uses, rather than fights, the forces of the capital markets to achieve financial success. New topics in this edition include: The success of multiple-asset-class investing during the stock market's "lost decade" Methods for forecasting long-term asset class returns and the limitations of prediction The dangers of market timing and the challenges involved in tactical asset allocation strategies--with insights from the field of behavioral finance Observations from the Global SIDONI Financial Crisis of 2008 and what it means for the multiple-asset-class investor With more than three decades of experience managing clients' portfolios and expectations, Gibson underscores the importance of identifying and working through the emotional and psychological traps that impede investment success. Join the quarter-century trend of Asset Allocation providing investors with a sound approach to financial well-being.
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