Eminently suited to classroom use as well as individual study, Roger Myerson's introductory text provides a clear and thorough examination of the models, solution concepts, results, and methodological principles of noncooperative and cooperative game theory. Myerson introduces, clarifies, and synthesizes the extraordinary advances made in the subject over the past fifteen years, presents an overview of decision theory, and comprehensively reviews the development of the fundamental models: games in extensive form and strategic form, and Bayesian games with incomplete information.
An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.
Game theory offers insight into any economic, political, or social situation that involves people with different goals or preferences. The author in this book presents some of the most important models, solution concepts and methodological principles that have guided the development of the field.
Autobiographical accounts by Nobel laureates reflect the richness and diversity of contemporary economic thought and offer insights into the creative process; with six new laureates. Lives of the Laureates offers readers an informal history of modern economic thought as told through autobiographical essays by thirty-two Nobel Prize laureates in economics. The essays not only provide unique insights into major economic ideas of our time but also shed light on the processes of intellectual discovery and creativity. The accounts are accessible and engaging, achieving clarity without sacrificing inherently difficult content. This seventh edition adds six Nobelists to its pages: Roger B. Myerson (co-recipient in 2007) describes his evolution as a game theorist and his application of game theory to issues that ranged from electoral systems to perverse incentives; Thomas J. Sargent (co-recipient in 2011), recounts the development of the rational expectations model, which fundamentally changed the policy implications for macroeconomic models; Amartya Sen (recipient in 1998) reflects on his use of a bicycle (later donated to the Nobel Museum) to collect data early in his career; A. Michael Spence (co-recipient in 2001) describes, among other things, his whiplash-inducing first foray into teaching an undergraduate class; Christopher A. Sims (co-recipient in 2011) discusses his “non-Nobel” research; and Alvin E. Roth (co-recipient in 2012) chronicles the “three insurrections” he has witnessed in mainstream economics. Lives of the Laureates grows out of a continuing lecture series at Trinity University in San Antonio, which invites Nobelists from American universities to describe their evolution as economists in personal as well as technical terms. The Laureates W. Arthur Lewis, Lawrence R. Klein, Kenneth J. Arrow, Paul A. Samuelson, Milton Friedman, George J. Stigler, James Tobin, Franco Modigliani, James M. Buchanan, Robert M. Solow, William F. Sharpe, Ronald H. Coase, Douglass C. North, John C. Harsanyi, Myron S. Scholes, Gary S. Becker, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Vernon L. Smith, Clive W. J. Granger, Edward C. Prescott, Thomas C. Schelling, Edmund S. Phelps, Eric S. Maskin, Joseph E. Stiglitz, Paul Krugman, Peter A. Diamond, Roger B. Myerson, Thomas J. Sargent, Amartya Sen, A. Michael Spence, Christopher A. Sims, Alvin E. Roth
Learn to use probability in complex realistic situations with PROBABILITY MODELS FOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS. This introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions uses Microsoft Excel spreadsheets for the analytic work. As a result of the emphasis on spreadsheet modeling, you'll also develop sophisticated spreadsheet skills.
An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.
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