Rodrigo Mariscal's Books

The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico

By: Rodrigo Mariscal,Alejandro M. Werner

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The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico

By: Rodrigo Mariscal,Alejandro M. Werner

In this paper we analyze the incidence of the VAT and its effects on the income distribution. To identify these effects, we rely on two tax reforms undertaken in Mexico that increased the VAT rate for a group of cities and left the rest unaffected. We compare the inflation rate of the affected cities with the exempted cities before and after the law changed. We find that the effect on prices is limited and conclude that the burden of the tax is indeed shared between producers and consumers. Regarding welfare, we find that the VAT is progressive in both absolute and relative terms to the overall expenditure. Finally, we show that an identical change in the VAT rate when inflation is high and persistent doubles its pass-through to inflation and its welfare loss for the average household.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484384199

ISBN 13

9781484384190

Collateral Damage

Dollar Strength and Emerging Markets’ Growth

By: Mr.Pablo Druck,Mr.Nicolas E. Magud,Rodrigo Mariscal

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Collateral Damage

Dollar Strength and Emerging Markets’ Growth

By: Mr.Pablo Druck,Mr.Nicolas E. Magud,Rodrigo Mariscal

We document that, historically, although stronger growth in the U.S. increases growth in emerging markets, U.S. dollar appreciation (depreciation) cycles—which are highly persistent—mitigate (amplify) the impact on real GDP growth in emerging markets. We argue that the main transmission channel of the latter is through an income effect: as the dollar appreciates, commodity prices fall; weaker commodity prices depress domestic demand via lower real income; real GDP in emerging markets decelerates; and vice versa. These effects hold despite any potential expenditure-switching effect resulting from the relative (to the U.S. dollar) currency depreciation of emerging market economies. We also show the negative effect on emerging markets’ growth of U.S. interest rates beyond the effects of the U.S. real exchange rate and real GDP growth. Therefore, at the time of writing, emerging markets’ growth is expected to remain subdued reflecting, intera alia, the expected persistence of the strong dollar and the anticipated increased in the U.S. interest rates.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498369553

ISBN 13

9781498369558

Hollowing Out: The Channels of Income Polarization in the United States

By: Ali Alichi,Rodrigo Mariscal,Daniela Muhaj

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Hollowing Out: The Channels of Income Polarization in the United States

By: Ali Alichi,Rodrigo Mariscal,Daniela Muhaj

Data show that middle-income households have continued moving down, and less so up, the income distribution in the United States since the 1970s—a phenomenon that is often referred to as the polarization or “hollowing out” of the income distribution. While the level of income polarization is generally lower in the richer states (i.e., those with higher median household income levels), there have been wide variations in the changes in income polarization over time across states. The paper develops two indices to measure income polarization including a novel hollowing-out index. Another important contribution of the paper is to examine the proximate causes of income polarization. The econometric analysis is done at both state and household levels. The results suggest that technology, measured by job routinization, and international trade, measured by job offshoring, can fully explain the non-trend rise in income polarization, with broadly equal contributions. Household characteristics, including age, education, race, and gender have also been important drivers but with a net countervailing effect on income polarization. This is mainly thanks to the rising education level of households, which has led to better incomes.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484328299

ISBN 13

9781484328293

Women Are Key for Future Growth

Evidence from Canada

By: Bengt Petersson,Rodrigo Mariscal,Kotaro Ishi

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Women Are Key for Future Growth

Evidence from Canada

By: Bengt Petersson,Rodrigo Mariscal,Kotaro Ishi

How important are female workers for economic growth? This paper presents empirical evidence that an increase in female labor force participation is positively associated with labor productivity growth. Using panel data for 10 Canadian provinces over 1990–2015, we found that a 1 percentage point increase in the labor force participation among women with high educational attainment would raise Canada’s overall labor productivity growth by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage point a year. This suggests that if the current gap of 7 percentage points between male and female labor force participation with high educational attainment were eliminated, the level of real GDP could be about 4 percent higher today. The government has appropriately stepped up its efforts to improve gender equality, as part of its growth strategy. In particular, the government’s plan to expand access to affordable child care is a positive step. However, we argue that to maximize the policy outcome given a budget constraint, provision of subsidized child care—including publicly funded child care spaces—should be better targeted to working parents.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484309243

ISBN 13

9781484309247

Advancing Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean

By: Dyna Heng,Anna Ivanova,Rodrigo Mariscal,Ms.Uma Ramakrishnan,Joyce Wong

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Advancing Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean

By: Dyna Heng,Anna Ivanova,Rodrigo Mariscal,Ms.Uma Ramakrishnan,Joyce Wong

This paper examines the state of financial development in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region as well as potential growth and stability implications from further development. The analysis suggests that access to financial institutions has expanded notably in the past decade, and the region compares favorably with other emerging market regions on this dimension. The region, however, continues to lag behind peers on broader financial development, especially with respect to markets, though there is substantial heterogeneity across countries. Financial systems in many LAC countries are also underdeveloped relative to their macroeconomic fundamentals. Further financial development could convey net benefits to the region, provided there is adequate regulatory oversight to prevent excesses.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484321715

ISBN 13

9781484321713

The Difficult Triangle

Mexico, Central America, And The United States

By: H. Rodrigo Jauberth,Gilberto Castaneda,Jesus Hernandez,Pedro Vuskovic

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The Difficult Triangle

Mexico, Central America, And The United States

By: H. Rodrigo Jauberth,Gilberto Castaneda,Jesus Hernandez,Pedro Vuskovic

Although relations with Central America dominated U.S. foreign policy with its southern neighbors during the 1980s, relations with Mexico will likely shape U.S. foreign policy in the next decade. This book examines the troubled nature of the triangular link between Mexico, Central America, and the United States in order to understand the implications of U.S. policy for peace and development in the Western Hemisphere. The book begins with an analysis of Mexico's foreign policy and its historical role in seeking diplomatic solutions to volatile situations in Central America. The authors then assess the probable impact on the region of increased economic integration, particularly the U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement, especially important in light of Mexico's enormous debt and immigration issues. Special attention is also given to diplomatic aspects of the relationship, with a focus on the process of negotiations to resolve conflicts in Central America. A lengthy epilogue offers critical commentary on key issues discussed in the text by such prominent figures as Jesse Jackson, Carlos Vilas, David Ibarra, and Guadalupe Gonzales.

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182

Publisher

Routledge

Published Date

ISBN 10

1000315916

ISBN 13

9781000315912

The Night

By: Rodrigo Blanco Calderon

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The Night

By: Rodrigo Blanco Calderon

For readers who love Bolaño, a new voice of Latin American fiction, winner of the Mario Vargas Llosa Prize. Recurring blackouts envelop Caracas in an inescapable darkness that makes nightmares come true. Real and fictional characters, most of them are writers, exchange the role of narrator in this polyphonic novel. They recount contradictory versions of the plot, a series of femicides that began with the energy crisis. The central narrator is a psychiatrist who manipulates the accounts of his friend, an author writing a book titled The Night; and his patient, an advertising executive obsessed with understanding the world through word puzzles. The author shifts between crime fiction and metafiction, cautioning readers that the events retold are both true and manipulated. This is a political novel about the financial crisis and socio-political division in Venezuela from 2008 to 2010. The title of the book, originally also in English, is a gesture towards Chavism's failure to resist US influence. Yet, the form is unapologetically literary, a reflection on the depiction and distortion of reality through storytelling. Blanco Calderón said about the potential of language, "I am convinced that all the evil in the world begins in them: in words" (Caracas, 2010).

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