A central tenet of the Maastricht Treaty is that a successful European Monetary Union requires sustainable public finances of its member states, yet there is no clear definition of sustainability. This book develops a concept of sustainability focusing on the controllability of public finances. After reviewing the theoretical and empirical arguments for a disaggregate and institutions-oriented approach to correcting non-sustainable deficits, the authors propose a practical procedure to assess the sustainability of a country's public finances.
By discussing the available theoretical and empirical literature, this paper argues that budget procedures and budget institutions do influence budget outcomes. Budget institutions include both procedural rules and balanced budget laws. We critically assess theoretical contributions in this area and suggest several open and unresolved issue. We also examine the empirical evidence drawn from studies on samples of OECD countries, Latin American countries and the United States. We conclude with a discussion of the normative implications of this literature and with some concrete proposals.
This paper provides a critical survey of the literature on politico-institutional determinants of the government budget. We organize our discussion around two questions: Why did certain OECD countries, but not others, accumulate large public debts? Why did these fiscal imbalances appear in the last 20 years rather than before? We begin by discussing the “tax smoothing” model and conclude that this approach alone cannot provide complete answers to these questions. We will then proceed to a discussion of political economy models, which we organize in six groups: (i) models based upon opportunistic policymakers and naive voters with “fiscal illusion;” (ii) models of intergenerational redistributions; (iii) models of debt as a strategic variable, linking the current government with the next one; (iv) models of coalition governments; (v) models of geographically dispersed interests; and (vi) models emphasizing the effects of budgetary institutions. We conclude by briefly discussing policy implications.
This paper studies how the composition of fiscal adjustments influences their likelihood of “success”, defined as a long lasting deficit reduction, and their macroeconomic consequences. We find that fiscal adjustments which rely primarily on spending cuts on transfers and the government wage bill have a better chance of being successful and are expansionary. On the contrary fiscal adjustments which rely primarily on tax increases and cuts in public investment tend not to last and are contractionary. We discuss alterative explanations for these findings by studying both a full sample of OECD countries and by focusing on three case studies: Denmark, Ireland and Italy.
Michele Emiliano protagonista, a Bari e in Puglia, d'una esperienza politica e amministrativa particolarmente interessante e innovativa nella realt politica italiana. Ecco i come e i perch raccontati da osservatori e protagonisti: Ludovico Abaticchio, Dino Amenduni, Nino Anaclerio, Pierluigi Balducci, Lino Banfi, Rosina Basso Lobello, Paolo Bevilacqua, Tobia Binetti, Nicola Bonerba, Dino Borri, Marco Brando, Carlo Bruni, Danilo Calabrese, Giovanni Campobasso, Antonio Cantoro, Cinzia Capano, Michele Capriati, Donato Carrisi, Franco Cassano, Domenico Castellaneta, Angelo Cera, Franco Chiarello, Graziano Conversano, Raimondo Cucciola, Nicola De Bartolomeo, Antonio De Caro, Fortunata Dell'Orzo, Cinzia De Marzo, Fabio Di Fonte, Antonio Di Matteo, Gemma Dipoppa, Simonetta Emiliano, Francesco Ferrante, Francesco Fistetti, Enrico Fornaro, Costantino Foschini, Dario Ginefra, Mario Gismondi, Giuseppe Goffredo, Gero Grassi, Eugenio Iorio, Marco Lacarra, Vito Leccese, Francesco Lenoci, Adriana Logroscino, Fabrizio Lombardo Pijola, Antonio Madaro, Enzo Magist, Alfredo Mantovano, Biagio Marzo, Augusto Masiello, Maria Maugeri, Michele Mazzarano, Susi Mazzei, Domenico Mennitti, Nichi Muciaccia, Gennaro Nunziante, Rocco Palese, Carlo Paolini, Vittorio Parisi, Federico Pirro, Adriana Poli Bortone Massimo Posca, Franco Punzi, Enzo Purgatorio, Luigi Quaranta, Antonella Rinella, Elio Sannicandro, Maria Santacroce, Alba Sasso, Giovanni Sasso, Leonardo Scorza, Vittorio Sgarbi, Ippazio Stef no, Salvatore Tatarella, Leonardo Tomasicchio, Andrea Troisi, Walter Veltroni, Nichi Vendola, Marcello Vernola, Cesare Veronico, Fabrizio Versienti, Gianfranco Viesti, Luciano Violante, Pierfelice Zazzera.Michele Emiliano is the protagonist, in Bari and in Puglia, of a political and administrative experience particularly interesting and innovative in the reality of Italian politics.
This book builds on the lessons of the most recent global financial crisis, especially in Europe and Central Asia and proposes a more effective role for the health sector as part of a safety net function and as a stabilizer for the population during a crisis.
This paper surveys fiscal policy in developing countries from the point of view of long-run growth. The first section reviews existing methodologies to estimate the effects of fiscal policy shocks and of systematic fiscal policy, with time series or with cross-sectional methods, and their applicability to developing countries. The second section surveys optimal fiscal policy in developing countries, by considering the role of the intertemporal government budget, and sustainability and solvency. It also reviews the fuzzy debate on "fiscal space" and "macroeconomic space" - and the usefulness (or lack thereof) of these terms for policy analysis. The third section asks what theory tells us about the optimal cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in developing countries. It shows that it very much depends on the assumptions about the interactions between credit market imperfections at the individual, firms, or government level, and on the supply of external funds to the country. Different sets of assumptions lead to different implications about optimal cyclical behavior. The available evidence on the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy, and possible reasons for the observed prevalence of a procyclical behavior in developing countries, is also reviewed. If one agrees that fiscal policy is indeed less countercyclical than we think is optimal, the issue is how to correct the problem. One obvious question is why government do not self-insure, i.e. why they do not accumulate assets in upturns and decumulate them in downturns. This leads to the analysis of fiscal rules and stabilization funds, in the fourth section. The last section concludes with what the author considers important research and policy questions in each part.
This is the first volume in an ambitious new series-"Patterns of Potential Human Progress"-inspired by the UN Millennium Development Goals (MGDs) and other initiatives to improve the global condition. The first and most fundamental of these goals-reducing poverty worldwide-is the focus of this book. Using the large-scale computer program called International Futures (IFs) developed over three decades at the prestigious University of Denver Graduate School of International Studies, this book explores the most extensive set of forecasts of global poverty ever made-providing a wide range of scenarios based on an authoritative array of data. It transcends the "$1 a day" baseline measure of poverty and probes important concepts like income poverty gaps and relative poverty. The forecasts are long-term, looking 50 years into the future, far beyond the 2015 date set out by the MDGs. They are geographically rich, spanning the entire globe and drilling down to the country level, including one of the most important global focal points, India. The poverty forecasts in this book, and all the volumes in the series, are fully integrated in perspective across a wide range of human development arenas including demographics, economics, politics, agriculture, energy, and the environment. Full of colorful, thoughtfully designed graphs, tables, maps, and other visual presentations of data and forecasts, this large-format inaugural volume ensures that the "Patterns of Potential Human Progress" series will become an indispensable resource for every development professional, student, professor, library, and indeed, country around the world.
At last, the first systematic guide to the growing jungle of citation indices and other bibliometric indicators. Written with the aim of providing a complete and unbiased overview of all available statistical measures for scientific productivity, the core of this reference is an alphabetical dictionary of indices and other algorithms used to evaluate the importance and impact of researchers and their institutions. In 150 major articles, the authors describe all indices in strictly mathematical terms without passing judgement on their relative merit. From widely used measures, such as the journal impact factor or the h-index, to highly specialized indices, all indicators currently in use in the sciences and humanities are described, and their application explained. The introductory section and the appendix contain a wealth of valuable supporting information on data sources, tools and techniques for bibliometric and scientometric analysis - for individual researchers as well as their funders and publishers.
This book presents a new System Dynamics model (the ERRE model), a novel stock and flow consistent global impact assessment model designed by the authors to address the financial risks emerging from the interaction between economic growth and environmental limits under the presence of shocks. Building on the World3-03 Limits to Growth model, the ERRE links the financial system with the energy, agriculture and climate systems through the real economy, by means of feedback loops, time lags and non-linear rationally bounded decision making. Prices and their interaction with growth, inflation and interest rates are assumed to be the main driver of economic failure while reaching planetary limits. The model allows for the stress-testing of fat tail extreme risk scenarios, such as climate shocks, energy transition, monetary policies and carbon taxes. Risks are addressed via scenario analyses, compared to real available data, and assessed in terms of the economic theory that lies behind. The book outlines the case for a government led system change within this decade, where the market alone cannot lead to sustainable prosperity. This book will be of great interest to scholars of climate change, behavioural, ecological and evolutionary economics, green finance, and sustainable development.
The objective of the research project “Development of a training model in the strengthening of microfi-nance in Uganda” has been the definition and the dissemination of a training model in the field of microfi-nance in Uganda. The project can be replicated on a national scale and would have the potential to improve the effectiveness of this sector in order to ultimately reduce financial exclusion. The project achieved main results as follows: organization of a specialized course to improve professional capabilities of local experts working in the field of microfinance in Uganda;implementation of the sustainability to be achieved in terms of microfinance projects’ dissemination by helping the new operators to the introduction of new initiatives in remote areas;improvement of the mobility of trained human resources in order to develop develop a comparative approach to microfinance, in paticular to the issue of microinsurance;creation of an internet portal, in both Italian and English, to open an interesting communicative window;improvement of the availability of relevant data in order to assess the progress and the impact of microfinance projects;sharing micro-entrepreneurial experiences that can create positive externalities to further expand productive activities;dissemination of best practices that will improve entrepreneurial skills, fostering greater impact on the socio-economic context.
This book revises the strategic objectives of Information Warfare, interpreting them according to the modern canons of information age, focusing on the fabric of society, the economy, and critical Infrastructures. The authors build plausible detailed real-world scenarios for each entity, showing the related possible threats from the Information Warfare point of view. In addition, the authors dive into the description of the still open problems, especially when it comes to critical infrastructures, and the countermeasures that can be implemented, possibly inspiring further research in the domain. This book intends to provide a conceptual framework and a methodological guide, enriched with vivid and compelling use cases for the readers (e.g. technologists, academicians, military, government) interested in what Information Warfare really means, when its lenses are applied to current technology. Without sacrificing accuracy, rigor and, most importantly, the big picture of Information Warfare, this book dives into several relevant and up-to-date critical domains. The authors illustrate how finance (an always green target of Information Warfare) is intertwined with Social Media, and how an opponent could exploit these latter ones to reach its objectives. Also, how cryptocurrencies are going to reshape the economy, and the risks involved by this paradigm shift. Even more compelling is how the very fabric of society is going to be reshaped by technology, for instance how our democratic elections are exposed to risks that are even greater than what appears in the current public discussions. Not to mention how our Critical Infrastructure is becoming exposed to a series of novel threats, ranging from state-supported malware to drones. A detailed discussion of possible countermeasures and what the open issues are for each of the highlighted threats complete this book. This book targets a widespread audience that includes researchers and advanced level students studying and working in computer science with a focus on security. Military officers, government officials and professionals working in this field will also find this book useful as a reference.
Europe (in Theory) is an innovative analysis of eighteenth- and nineteenth-century ideas about Europe that continue to inform thinking about culture, politics, and identity today. Drawing on insights from subaltern and postcolonial studies, Roberto M. Dainotto deconstructs imperialism not from the so-called periphery but from within Europe itself. He proposes a genealogy of Eurocentrism that accounts for the way modern theories of Europe have marginalized the continent’s own southern region, portraying countries including Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal as irrational, corrupt, and clan-based in comparison to the rational, civic-minded nations of northern Europe. Dainotto argues that beginning with Montesquieu’s The Spirit of Laws (1748), Europe not only defined itself against an “Oriental” other but also against elements within its own borders: its South. He locates the roots of Eurocentrism in this disavowal; internalizing the other made it possible to understand and explain Europe without reference to anything beyond its boundaries. Dainotto synthesizes a vast array of literary, philosophical, and historical works by authors from different parts of Europe. He scrutinizes theories that came to dominate thinking about the continent, including Montesquieu’s invention of Europe’s north-south divide, Hegel’s “two Europes,” and Madame de Staël’s idea of opposing European literatures: a modern one from the North, and a pre-modern one from the South. At the same time, Dainotto brings to light counter-narratives written from Europe’s margins, such as the Spanish Jesuit Juan Andrés’s suggestion that the origins of modern European culture were eastern rather than northern and the Italian Orientalist Michele Amari’s assertion that the South was the cradle of a social democracy brought to Europe via Islam.
This paper provides a novel dataset of time-varying measures on the degree of countercyclicality of fiscal policies for advanced and developing economies between 1980 and 2021. The use of time-varying measures of fiscal stabilization, with special attention to potential endogenity issues, overcomes the major limitation of previous studies and alllows the analysis to account for both country-specific as well as global factors. The paper also examines the key determinants of countercyclicality of fiscal policy with a focus on factors as severe crises, informality, financial development, and governance. Empirical results show that (i) fiscal policy tends to be more counter-cyclical during severe crises than typical recessions, especially for advanced economies; (ii) fiscal counter-cyclicality has increased over time for many economies over the last two decades; (iii) discretionary and automatic countercyclicality are both strong in advanced economies but acyclical (at times procyclical) in low-income countries, (iv) fiscal countercyclicality operates primarily through the expenditure channel, particularly for social benefits, (vi) better financial development, larger government size and stronger institutional quality are associated with larger countercyclical effects of fiscal policy. Our results are robust to various specifications and endogeneity checks.
This book explores the role of the cultural and creative industries (CCIs) as drivers of local economic development. More specifically, it builds on two novel perspectives in order to interpret the phenomenon. First, despite the general recognition that CCIs are innovative economic actors, their creative output is heterogeneous, as CCIs consist of extremely diverse industries, and the concept of innovation differs from sector to sector. Second, CCIs’ creativity is locally rooted, as the context provides innovative inputs for the development of creative ideas, binding creativity with well-established theories of the regional innovation literature. The book explores these new perspectives through a novel database on CCIs’ innovation at a fine industrial and regional scale. Building on these two ideas, the book is subdivided into three parts. In the first, a novel definition of creativity in CCIs is developed in which its heterogeneity and place-based nature are at the core. In turn, the second part addresses the phenomenon of localization choices in CCIs, highlighting their heterogeneous innovativeness and the filière which they belong to as key dimensions for the analysis. In the third part, the impact of CCIs on economic growth is explored. This book offers new evidence on the conditions under which CCIs cluster in space and stimulate development. It appeals to scholars in regional science, cultural economics and related fields, as well as policymakers and practitioners working in the cultural and creative industries.
This paper provides a critical survey of the literature on politico-institutional determinants of the government budget. We organize our discussion around two questions: Why did certain OECD countries, but not others, accumulate large public debts? Why did these fiscal imbalances appear in the last 20 years rather than before? We begin by discussing the “tax smoothing” model and conclude that this approach alone cannot provide complete answers to these questions. We will then proceed to a discussion of political economy models, which we organize in six groups: (i) models based upon opportunistic policymakers and naive voters with “fiscal illusion;” (ii) models of intergenerational redistributions; (iii) models of debt as a strategic variable, linking the current government with the next one; (iv) models of coalition governments; (v) models of geographically dispersed interests; and (vi) models emphasizing the effects of budgetary institutions. We conclude by briefly discussing policy implications.
By discussing the available theoretical and empirical literature, this paper argues that budget procedures and budget institutions do influence budget outcomes. Budget institutions include both procedural rules and balanced budget laws. We critically assess theoretical contributions in this area and suggest several open and unresolved issue. We also examine the empirical evidence drawn from studies on samples of OECD countries, Latin American countries and the United States. We conclude with a discussion of the normative implications of this literature and with some concrete proposals.
A central tenet of the Maastricht Treaty is that a successful European Monetary Union requires sustainable public finances of its member states, yet there is no clear definition of sustainability. This book develops a concept of sustainability focusing on the controllability of public finances. After reviewing the theoretical and empirical arguments for a disaggregate and institutions-oriented approach to correcting non-sustainable deficits, the authors propose a practical procedure to assess the sustainability of a country's public finances.
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