This paper assesses differences in countries’ macroeconomic exposure to trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Estimating structural gravity regressions for sector-level bilateral trade flows between 185 countries, we find that differences in individual countries’ geopolitical ties act as a barrier to trade, with the largest effects concentrated in a few sectors (notably, food and high-end manufacturing). Consequently, countries’ exposure via trade to geopolitical shifts varies with their market size, comparative advantage, and foreign policy alignments. Introducing our estimates into a dynamic many-country, many-sector quantitative trade model, we show that geoeconomic fragmentation—modelled as an increased sensitivity of trade costs to geopolitics and greater geopolitical polarization—generally leads to lower trade and incomes. However, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) tend to see the largest impacts: real per-capita income losses for the median EMDE in Asia are 80 percent larger, and for the median EMDE in Africa 120 percent larger, than for the median advanced economy. This suggests that the costs of trade fragmentation could fall disproportionally on countries that can afford it the least.
This paper assesses differences in countries’ macroeconomic exposure to trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Estimating structural gravity regressions for sector-level bilateral trade flows between 185 countries, we find that differences in individual countries’ geopolitical ties act as a barrier to trade, with the largest effects concentrated in a few sectors (notably, food and high-end manufacturing). Consequently, countries’ exposure via trade to geopolitical shifts varies with their market size, comparative advantage, and foreign policy alignments. Introducing our estimates into a dynamic many-country, many-sector quantitative trade model, we show that geoeconomic fragmentation—modelled as an increased sensitivity of trade costs to geopolitics and greater geopolitical polarization—generally leads to lower trade and incomes. However, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) tend to see the largest impacts: real per-capita income losses for the median EMDE in Asia are 80 percent larger, and for the median EMDE in Africa 120 percent larger, than for the median advanced economy. This suggests that the costs of trade fragmentation could fall disproportionally on countries that can afford it the least.
This book defines the Avaricious Personality and explores in detail how it spreads a greedy and antisocial vision of life from personal relationships to our society at large. Particular emphasis is given to how the avaricious have transformed the freedom of speech into the freedom to lie and how this has damaged all of our essential social institutions. Strategies are offered to reverse this very dangerous trend. This book is neither academic nor scientific and there are no footnotes or bibliography. It is a book of opinion, observation and theory based upon my many years of practicing as a psychiatrist with a particular interest in human character. My positions are stated vigorously, clearly and succintly as I am convinced that the spread of this disease of greed presents an overwhelming threat to our future.
Contents Include: The Author's Apology - The Laws of God - The Laws of Man - Where do our Natures Come From? - The Beginnings of Morals - The Ancestral Struggle within Us - Environment - How Heredity and Environment Work - Good and Bad Surroundings - The Origin of Conscience - Free Will - Self-Control - Guilty or Not Guilty? - The Failure of Punishment - Some Objections Answered - The Defence of the Bottom Dog
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