Computer application techniques are applied to routine short-term forecasting and prediction in this classic of operations research. The text begins with a consideration of data sources and sampling intervals, progressing to discussions of time series models and probability models. An extensive overview of smoothing techniques surveys the mathematical techniques for periodically raising the estimates of coefficients in forecasting problems. Sections on forecasting and error measurement and analysis are followed by an exploration of alternatives and the applications of the forecast to specific problems, and a treatment of the handling of systems design problems ranges from observed data to decision rules. 1963 ed.
Computer application techniques are applied to routine short-term forecasting and prediction in this classic of operations research. The text begins with a consideration of data sources and sampling intervals, progressing to discussions of time series models and probability models. An extensive overview of smoothing techniques surveys the mathematical techniques for periodically raising the estimates of coefficients in forecasting problems. Sections on forecasting and error measurement and analysis are followed by an exploration of alternatives and the applications of the forecast to specific problems, and a treatment of the handling of systems design problems ranges from observed data to decision rules. 1963 ed.
The third installment of Harvard’s five-volume edition of Robert Frost’s correspondence. The Letters of Robert Frost, Volume 3: 1929–1936 is the latest installment in Harvard’s five-volume edition of the poet’s correspondence. It presents 601 letters, of which 425 are previously uncollected. The critically acclaimed first volume, a Times Literary Supplement Book of the Year, included nearly 300 previously uncollected letters, and the second volume 350 more. During the period covered here, Robert Frost was close to the height of his powers. If Volume 2 covered the making of Frost as America’s poet, in Volume 3 he is definitively made. These were also, however, years of personal tribulation. The once-tight Frost family broke up as marriage, illness, and work scattered the children across the country. In the case of Frost’s son Carol, both distance and proximity put strains on an already fractious relationship. But the tragedy and emotional crux of this volume is the death of Frost’s youngest daughter, Marjorie. Frost’s correspondence from those dark days is a powerful testament to the difficulty of honoring the responsibilities of a poet’s eminence while coping with the intensity of a parent’s grief. Volume 3 also sees Frost responding to the crisis of the Great Depression, the onset of the New Deal, and the emergence of totalitarian regimes in Europe, with wit, canny political intelligence, and no little acerbity. All the while, his star continues to rise: he wins a Pulitzer for Collected Poems in 1931 and will win a second for A Further Range, published in 1936, and he is in constant demand as a public speaker at colleges, writers’ workshops, symposia, and dinners. Frost was not just a poet but a poet-teacher; as such, he was instrumental in defining the public functions of poetry in the twentieth century. In the 1930s, Frost lived a life of paradox, as personal tragedy and the tumults of politics interwove with his unprecedented achievements. Thoroughly annotated and accompanied by a biographical glossary and detailed chronology, these letters illuminate a triumphant and difficult period in the life of a towering literary figure.
Wyatt Earp, Billy the Kid, Doc Holliday—such are the legendary names that spring to mind when we think of the western gunfighter. But in the American West of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, thousands of grassroots gunfighters straddled both sides of the law without hesitation. Deadly Dozen tells the story of twelve infamous gunfighters, feared in their own times but almost forgotten today. Now, noted historian Robert K. DeArment has compiled the stories of these obscure men. DeArment, a life-long student of law and lawlessness in the West, has combed court records, frontier newspapers, and other references to craft twelve complete biographical portraits. The combined stories of Deadly Dozen offer an intensive look into the lives of imposing figures who in their own ways shaped the legendary Old West. More than a collective biography of dangerous gunfighters, Deadly Dozen also functions as a social history of the gunfighter culture of the post-Civil War frontier West. As Walter Noble Burns did for Billy the Kid in 1926 and Stuart N. Lake for Wyatt Earp in 1931, DeArment—himself a talented writer—brings these figures from the Old West to life. John Bull, Pat Desmond, Mart Duggan, Milt Yarberry, Dan Tucker, George Goodell, Bill Standifer, Charley Perry, Barney Riggs, Dan Bogan, Dave Kemp, and Jeff Kidder are the twelve dangerous men that Robert K. DeArment studies in Deadly Dozen: Twelve Forgotten Gunfighters of the Old West.
In the late 19th century, railroads played a crucial role in the development of Montana's economy. Robert A. Schalla examines early efforts to bring rail transport to the New World Mining District near the northeast corner of Yellowstone National Park and Red Lodge-Bear Creek Coal Field in south-central Montana. The saga began with a chance discovery in 1866 and follows the exploits of individuals who worked to bring rail transport to the mines of southern Montana. Starting with Northern Pacific's unsuccessful efforts to build a railroad through Yellowstone, this story follows the struggles of various privately financed schemes to develop the vast mineral wealth of these two regions. A youthful entrepreneur from Milwaukee succeeded in financing a railroad to the coal fields, but his plan to extend the line to the national park runs afoul of Howard Elliott, president of the Northern Pacific, who was determined to drive him out of business. The story dives into the motivations and background of these individuals and their ultimate triumphs and failures. The completion of the Montana, Wyoming & Southern Railroad (MW&S) in 1906 resulted in the creation of three new towns and six separate mining operations. The MW&S was one of the few privately owned lines in Montana that, despite forces aligned against it, maintained its independence until it was abandoned. For nearly fifty years it formed an important part of the state's economy as the Bear Creek mines supplied private, commercial, and industrial consumers with some of the highest-quality coal in the state.
The NFL is the most popular professional sports league in the United States. Its athletes receive multimillion-dollar contracts and almost endless media attention. The league's most important game, the Super Bowl, is practically a national holiday. Making it to the NFL, however, is not about the promised land of fame and fortune. Robert W. Turner II draws on his personal experience as a former professional football player as well as interviews with more than 140 current and former NFL players to reveal what it means to be an athlete in the NFL and explain why so many players struggle with life after football. Without guaranteed contracts, the majority of players are forced out of the league after a few seasons. Over three-quarters of retirees experience bankruptcy or financial ruin, two-thirds live with chronic pain, and too many find themselves on the wrong side of the law. Robert W. Turner II argues that the fall from grace of so many players is no accident. The NFL, he contends, powerfully determines their experiences in and out of the league. The labor agreement provides little job security and few health and retirement benefits, and the owners refuse to share power with the players, making change difficult. And the process of becoming an elite football player--from high school to college and through the pros--leaves athletes with few marketable skills and little preparation for their first Sunday off the field. With compassion and objectivity, Not for Long reveals the life and mind of high school, college, and NFL athletes, shedding light on what might best help players transition successfully out of the sport.
Wood Microbiology, Second Edition, presents the latest advances in wood decay and its prevention. Coverage includes classification of fungi and bacteria, factors affecting growth and survival, fungal metabolism, and wood chemistry. There are also chapters that focus on the anatomical aspects, chemical changes, and ultrastructural effects of wood decay. Additionally, this book discusses major issues associated with wood decay, detecting decay, and how to take protective action against it. This is a one-stop reference resource for wood scientists, wood processing and preserving professionals, foresters and forest pathologists, as well as students of forestry, and wood science and technology courses. It is authored by two leading experts with over 80 years of experience working with timber durability. Provides updated taxonomy and classification of decay groups Presents detailed descriptions of anatomical, chemical, and ultrastructural aspects of wood decay Includes discussions on major issues associated with decay, how to detect decay and preventative measures
Manipulative communication—from early twentieth-century propaganda to today’s online con artistry—examined through the lens of social engineering. The United States is awash in manipulated information about everything from election results to the effectiveness of medical treatments. Corporate social media is an especially good channel for manipulative communication, with Facebook a particularly willing vehicle for it. In Social Engineering, Robert Gehl and Sean Lawson show that online misinformation has its roots in earlier techniques: mass social engineering of the early twentieth century and interpersonal hacker social engineering of the 1970s, converging today into what they call “masspersonal social engineering.” As Gehl and Lawson trace contemporary manipulative communication back to earlier forms of social engineering, possibilities for amelioration become clearer. The authors show how specific manipulative communication practices are a mixture of information gathering, deception, and truth-indifferent statements, all with the instrumental goal of getting people to take actions the social engineer wants them to. Yet the term “fake news,” they claim, reduces everything to a true/false binary that fails to encompass the complexity of manipulative communication or to map onto many of its practices. They pay special attention to concepts and terms used by hacker social engineers, including the hacker concept of “bullshitting,” which the authors describe as a truth-indifferent mix of deception, accuracy, and sociability. They conclude with recommendations for how society can undermine masspersonal social engineering and move toward healthier democratic deliberation.
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