As I entered the administration building early on the morning of August 10, 1999, the long narrow hallway was empty. I could hear the click of my heels on the red tile floor as I walked along. When I glanced down the hallway, I noticed a district security guard walking toward me. There was nothing unusual about the morning as we exchanged greetings. I had arrived around seven thirty that morning. As I was unlocking the outer door to my office, the security guard approached me and said something. As I recall it was basically, "I have a message for you from the superintendent." He then asked me to please remove all of my personal items from my office, give him my office keys, and leave the school district property immediately. Later that evening at my home, a district security guard hand-delivered a memo to me. It began by stating, "Effective immediately, you are suspended with pay, pending a determination by the Board of Trustees whether or not you should be given notice of termination for cause..." I did not need to read any further than the first line of the memo to know that my life was about to change. I cannot say I was surprised, but I did not expect the twists and turns of the journey I was about to begin.
A detailed study of research on the psychology of expertise in weather forecasting, drawing on findings in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science. This book argues that the human cognition system is the least understood, yet probably most important, component of forecasting accuracy. Minding the Weather investigates how people acquire massive and highly organized knowledge and develop the reasoning skills and strategies that enable them to achieve the highest levels of performance. The authors consider such topics as the forecasting workplace; atmospheric scientists' descriptions of their reasoning strategies; the nature of expertise; forecaster knowledge, perceptual skills, and reasoning; and expert systems designed to imitate forecaster reasoning. Drawing on research in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science, the authors argue that forecasting involves an interdependence of humans and technologies. Human expertise will always be necessary.
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