Much of economists' statistical work centers on testing hypotheses in which parameter values are partitioned between a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis in order to distinguish two views about the world. Our traditional procedures are based on the probabilities of a test statistic under the null but ignore what the statistics say about the probability of the test statistic under the alternative. Traditional procedures are not intended to provide evidence for the relative probabilities of the null versus alternative hypotheses, but are regularly treated as if they do. Unfortunately, when used to distinguish two views of the world, traditional procedures can lead to wildly misleading inference. In order to correctly distinguish between two views of the world, one needs to report the probabilities of the hypotheses given parameter estimates rather than the probability of the parameter estimates given the hypotheses. This monograph shows why failing to consider the alternative hypothesis often leads to incorrect conclusions. I show that for most standard econometric estimators, it is not difficult to compute the proper probabilities using Bayes theorem. Simple formulas that require only information already available in standard estimation reports are provided. I emphasize that frequentist approaches for deciding between the null and alternative hypothesis are not free of priors. Rather, the usual procedures involve an implicit, unstated prior that is likely to be far from scientifically neutral.
This important book translates evidence and examines policy, proposing a plan to save America's schools by rewarding teachers with professional-level salaries distributed wisely. Profit of Education makes it clear that rethinking the teaching profession is the key to repairing America's broken-down education system and securing our nation's future. Accomplishing that, author Dick Startz says, requires lifting teacher pay to professional levels and rewarding teachers for student success, with the goal of improving student learning by the equivalent of one extra year of schooling. Profit of Education takes the reader on a chapter-by-chapter walk through the evidence on pay-oriented, teacher-centric reform of the public school system, showing that such an approach can work. Startz translates the extensive scientific evidence on school reform into easily understood terms, demonstrating the enormous difference teachers make in student outcomes. Proposed levels of teacher salaries are established, and the difficult issue of differential pay is examined in depth, as are many of the practical and political issues involved in measuring teacher success. Last, but hardly least, Startz shows how teacher-centric school reform will pay off for the taxpayer and the economy.
Dornbusch, Fischer, and Startz has been a long-standing, leading intermediate macroeconomic theory text since its introduction in 1978. This revision retains most of the text's traditional features, including a middle-of-the-road approach and very current research, while updating and simplifying the exposition. A balanced approach explains both the potential and limitations of economic policy. Macroeconomics employs a model-based approach to macroeconomic analysis and demonstrates how various models are connected with the goal of giving students the capacity to analyze current economic issues in the context of an economic frame of reference. The only pre-requisite continues to be principles of economics.
Dornbusch, Fischer, and Startz has been a long-standing, leading intermediate macroeconomic theory text since its introduction in 1978. This revision retains most of the text's traditional features, including a middle-of-the-road approach and very current research, while updating and simplifying the exposition. A balanced approach explains both the potential and limitations of economic policy. Macroeconomics employs a model-based approach to macroeconomic analysis and demonstrates how various models are connected with the goal of giving students the capacity to analyze current economic issues in the context of an economic frame of reference. The only pre-requisite continues to be principles of economics.
The third edition of Dornbusch's Macroeconomics is a leading intermediate macroeconomic theory text. This revision retains most of the traditional features, including a middle-of-the-road approach and very current research, while updating and simplifying the exposition. A completely new chapter on big events pulls together material on the Great Depression, budget deficits and hyperinflation. Students will get a background on these important economic events and will learn principles which are harder to identify in smoothly running economies. Macroeconomics maintains strong global coverage, offering an extensive international orientation for an increasingly globalised world.
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