Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.
The conventional wisdom is that small developing countries exert limited—if any—influence on the foreign policy of superpowers, in particular the United States. This book challenges that premise based on the experience of the small developing country of Jamaica and its relations with the United States. It raises the question: if the foreign policy of the United States can be influenced by even a small developing country, should Washington be worried?
This book chronicles the fascinating story of the enthusiastic, stalwart, and talented naturalists who were drawn to California’s spectacular natural bounty over the decades from 1786, when the La Pérouse Expedition arrived at Monterey, to the Death Valley expedition in 1890–91, the proclaimed "end" of the American frontier. Richard G. Beidleman’s engaging and marvelously detailed narrative describes these botanists, zoologists, geologists, paleontologists, astronomers, and ethnologists as they camped under stars and faced blizzards, made discoveries and amassed collections, kept journals and lost valuables, sketched flowers and landscapes, recorded comets and native languages. He weaves together the stories of their lives, their demanding fieldwork, their contributions to science, and their exciting adventures against the backdrop of California and world history. California's Frontier Naturalists covers all the major expeditions to California as well as individual and institutional explorations, introducing naturalists who accompanied boundary surveys, joined federal railroad parties, traveled with river topographical expeditions, accompanied troops involved with the Mexican War, and made up California’s own geological survey. Among these early naturalists are famous names—David Douglas, Thomas Nuttall, John Charles Fremont, William Brewer—as well as those who are less well-known, including Paolo Botta, Richard Hinds, and Sara Lemmon.
Richard Wright analyzes the current state of violence in America, the criminal justice system’s response, and the experiences of survivors in the aftermath of a violent crime. Despite decades of advocacy, change, and research, our policy responses embedded with historic and systemic values which rank victims and survivors not based on their trauma and loss, but by race, social status, gender, location, and age, remain quite flawed. Keeping the big picture in mind, Wright analyzes the unintended consequences of current, well-meaning policies, critiques the victim hierarchy, and sheds light on why American responses to the needs of violent crime victims have accrued a more failures than successes.
Hendricks Chapel is one of Syracuse University's most recognizable landmarks and a beloved campus institution, standing both literally and figuratively at the heart of its campus. The chapel has been the site of some of the university's most significant events, from antiwar protests in the sixties to the vigil of nearly 3,000 people held on September 11, 2001. Its efforts to foster intellectual, cultural, and spiritual growth within the campus community have drawn distinguished speakers from all fields: the painter Grant Wood; poets Carl Sandberg and Robert Frost; novelists Paul Gallico and Ayn Rand; the arctic explorer Viljhalmur Stefansson; politicians such as Franklin D. Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson, and Hillary Clinton; and religious figures and social activists such as Paul Tillich, the Dalai Lama, Elie Wiesel, and James Baldwin; as well as scientists, economists, and other scholars. This book, with contributions from other deans and staff, traces the history and evolution of the chapel, from its construction in 1930 when it was dedicated to promoting the "moral and spiritual welfare of the generations of young men and women at Syracuse University," to its many current functions as an inclusive spiritual and social resource for the university and the community at large.
This updated and expanded edition of Persuasive Communication offers a comprehensive introduction to persuasion and real-world decision making. Drawing on empirical research from social psychology, neuroscience, business communication research, cognitive science, and behavioral economics, Young reveals the thought processes of many different audiences—from investors to CEOs—to help students better understand why audiences make the decisions they make and how to influence them. The book covers a broad range of communication techniques, richly illustrated with compelling examples, including resumes, speeches, and slide presentations, to help students recognize persuasive methods that do, and do not, work. A detailed analysis of the emotions and biases that go into decision making arms students with perceptive insights into human behavior and helps them apply this understanding with various decision-making aids. Students will learn how to impact potential employers, clients, and other audiences essential to their success. This book will prove fascinating to many, and especially useful for students of persuasion, rhetoric, and business communication.
The Organic Chemistry of Drug Design and Drug Action, Third Edition, represents a unique approach to medicinal chemistry based on physical organic chemical principles and reaction mechanisms that rationalize drug action, which allows reader to extrapolate those core principles and mechanisms to many related classes of drug molecules. This new edition includes updates to all chapters, including new examples and references. It reflects significant changes in the process of drug design over the last decade and preserves the successful approach of the previous editions while including significant changes in format and coverage. This text is designed for undergraduate and graduate students in chemistry studying medicinal chemistry or pharmaceutical chemistry; research chemists and biochemists working in pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. Updates to all chapters, including new examples and references Chapter 1 (Introduction): Completely rewritten and expanded as an overview of topics discussed in detail throughout the book Chapter 2 (Lead Discovery and Lead Modification): Sections on sources of compounds for screening including library collections, virtual screening, and computational methods, as well as hit-to-lead and scaffold hopping; expanded sections on sources of lead compounds, fragment-based lead discovery, and molecular graphics; and deemphasized solid-phase synthesis and combinatorial chemistry Chapter 3 (Receptors): Drug-receptor interactions, cation-p and halogen bonding; atropisomers; case history of the insomnia drug suvorexant Chapter 4 (Enzymes): Expanded sections on enzyme catalysis in drug discovery and enzyme synthesis Chapter 5 (Enzyme Inhibition and Inactivation): New case histories: for competitive inhibition, the epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor, erlotinib and Abelson kinase inhibitor, imatinib for transition state analogue inhibition, the purine nucleoside phosphorylase inhibitors, forodesine and DADMe-ImmH, as well as the mechanism of the multisubstrate analog inhibitor isoniazid for slow, tight-binding inhibition, the dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor, saxagliptin Chapter 7 (Drug Resistance and Drug Synergism): This new chapter includes topics taken from two chapters in the previous edition, with many new examples Chapter 8 (Drug Metabolism): Discussions of toxicophores and reactive metabolites Chapter 9 (Prodrugs and Drug Delivery Systems): Discussion of antibody–drug conjugates
As many as 80% of patients will suffer from back pain at some point in their lifetime. It is the most common form of disability, and the second largest cause of work absenteeism. An early, proactive management approach offers the best route to minimizing these conditions. Renowned authority Curtis W. Slipman, MD and a team of multidisciplinary authorities present you with expert guidance on today's best non-surgical management methods, equipping you with the knowledge you need to offer your patients optimal pain relief. Refresh your knowledge of the basic principles that must be understood before patients with spinal pain can be properly treated. Know what to do when first-line tests and therapies fail, using practice-proven diagnostic and therapeutic algorithms. Offer your patients a full range of non-surgical treatment options, including pharmacology, physical therapy, injection techniques, ablative procedures, and percutaneous disc decompression. Make an informed surgical referral with guidance on indications, contraindications, methods, and postoperative rehabilitation. Better understand key techniques and procedures with visual guidance from more than 500 detailed illustrations.
Three pipe bombs exploded in Salt Lake County in 1985, killing two people. Behind the murders lay a vast forgery scheme aimed at dozens of other victims, most prominently the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Mark Hofmann, a master forger, went to prison for the murders. He had bilked the church, document dealers, and collectors of hundreds of thousands of dollars over several years while attempting to alter Mormon history. Other false documents of Americana still circulate. The crimes garnered intense media interest, spawning books, TV and radio programs, and myriad newspaper and magazine articles. Victims is a thoughtful corrective to the more sensationalized accounts. More important, Richard Turley adds substantially to the record with previously unavailable church documentation and exclusive interviews with church officials, giving this book greater depth and resonance. He also goes beyond the Hofmann case, illustrating how forgeries have hampered the church's efforts to document its history. Victims includes a complete appendix of every known document the church acquired from Hofmann, reviews of trial transcripts and police reports, as well as dozens of photographs, some never before published. Turley, who gave up the practice of law to become a historian, has managed the delicate task of exposing the myths and complexities of this case with skill and objectivity. His unique access to church documents and personnel, together with his understanding of the legal system and Mormon history, afforded him an unparalleled view of how the case affected the church as well as the many others who were involved. Victims will fascinate anyone who does archival work, who cares aboutthe historical record, or who likes to read compelling mystery.
This book traces the epic clash of values between traditional scenery-and-tourism management and emerging ecological concepts in the national parks, America's most treasured landscapes. It spans the period from the creation of Yellowstone National Park in 1872 to near the present, analyzing the management of fires, predators, elk, bear, and other natural phenomena in parks such as Yellowstone, Yosemite, Grand Canyon, and Great Smoky Mountains. Based largely on original documents never before researched, this is the most thorough history of the national parks ever written. Focusing on the decades after the National Park Service was established in 1916, the author reveals the dynamics of policy formulation and change, as landscape architects, foresters, wildlife biologists, and other Park Service professionals contended for dominance and shaped the attitudes and culture of the Service. The book provides a fresh look at the national parks and an analysis of why the Service has not responded in full faith to the environmental concerns of recent times. Richard West Sellars, a historian with the National Park Service, has become uniquely familiar with the history, culture, and dynamics of the Service?including its biases, internal alliances and rivalries, self-image, folklore, and rhetoric. The book will prove indispensable for environmental and governmental specialists and for general readers seeking an in-depth analysis of one of America's most admired federal bureaus.
With over one million copies sold worldwide, Exploring Strategy has long been the essential strategy text for managers of today and tomorrow. From entrepreneurial start-ups to multinationals, charities to government agencies, this book raises the big questions about organisations- how they grow, how they innovate and how they change.
This book reviews current understanding of the biological roles of the signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT) proteins and their dysregulation in diseases. STAT proteins were named after their role as signal transducers and activators of transcription. STAT proteins are highly conserved among species, thus reflecting the importance
Exploring Strategy, 12th Edition, by Whittington, Angwin, Regner, Johnson and Scholes has long been the essential introduction to strategy for the managers of today and tomorrow and has sold over one million copies worldwide. From entrepreneurial start-ups to multinationals, charities to government agencies, this book raises the big questions ab.
What makes a great sport psychologist? Is there an ideal style or approach? What do you need to consider when working with a client? In this practical guide, Richard Keegan presents a user-friendly model of the sport psychologist's consulting processes and offers a framework for understanding best practice. Whether you are a trainee or a qualified sport psychologist, this book will help you to deliver a consistent, transparent, effective and ethical service at all levels of sport. Being a Sport Psychologist: - Provides a clear and coherent model which accommodates different styles, philosophies and experience levels; - Contains worksheets to help you record, evaluate, understand and reflect; - Offers a range of useful case studies and examples; - Is the first book to describe the process of being a sport psychologist from beginning to end.
This work stands among the most important publications in biblical studies over the past twenty-five years. Richard Bauckham, James Davila, and Alexander Panayotov’s new two-volume collection of Old Testament pseudepigrapha contains many previously unpublished and newly translated texts, complementing James Charlesworth’s Old Testament Pseudepigrapha and other earlier collections. Including virtually all known surviving pseudepigrapha written before the rise of Islam, this volume, among other things, presents the sacred legends and spiritual reflections of numerous long-dead authors whose works were lost, neglected, or suppressed for many centuries. Excellent English translations along with authoritative yet accessible introductions bring those ancient documents to life for readers today.
From the author team of the market-leading text Exploring Strategy, comes a new edition of Fundamentals of Strategy. Designed to help student and business executives boost their academic and professional careers, Fundamentals of Strategy is the most concise and easy to follow overview of the fundamental issues and techniques of strategy. Fundamentals of Strategy, 4th edition · Delivers the essential concepts and techniques of strategy in a new 8 chapter structure. This allows additional space to unpack the fundamentals in depth, and at times more critically. · Revamped final chapter on ‘Strategy in action’, raising implementation issues such as organisational structure, management processes and strategic change · Covers up-to-date topics including business models, sustainability and entrepreneurial start-ups. · Engages the reader with real-world strategy problems and provides insights and strategy examples from a wide range of international organisations. · New and updated cases and illustrations featuring small and large organisations from profit and not-for-profit sectors and operating all over the world. · Links to online support material.
Today, front-page news about medical triumphs not only cover advanced medical breakthroughs but also puts emphasis on the power of nutrition. Discover miracles and stories of natural healing that will surprise and inspire you in The Vitamin Prescription (for life). For over twenty years of his medical practice, Dr. Firshein often relied on a versatile, hardy, and relatively small army of researched nutrients to do much of the healing work. Nutraceuticals are nutrients that have the capacity to act like medicines. They are natural pharmaceuticals. This miraclenatures power to healhas always been available to us. But it is only now that science has given us the tools to understand the mystery of healing foods and nutrients. Soy, for example, can boost and balance hormones and help prevent cancer. Fish oils and gingko are just some of these supernutrients that work wonders for your health. An excellent resource thats easy to read and informative, The Vitamin Prescription (for life) offers you a healthy way of eating and living, along with the most powerful nutrients known to medicine. These nutrients are not magic bullets that can work on their own. They need to be accompanied by healthy lifestyle changes, exercise, and stress-reducing activities like meditation and yoga. If one eats well, lives well, and adds one or more of the necessary super supplements, 80% of chronic illnesses can be reversed or prevented entirely. Embrace the nutraceutical revolution and achieve maximum health!
Building on the work presented in Styran and Taylor’s This Great National Object, which told the story of the first three Welland canals built in the nineteenth century, This Colossal Project chronicles an impressive milestone in the history of Canadian technological achievement and nation building.
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