Rene Tapsoba's Books

Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries

By: Ms.Anja Baum,Andrew Hodge,Ms.Aiko Mineshima,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Rene Tapsoba

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Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries

By: Ms.Anja Baum,Andrew Hodge,Ms.Aiko Mineshima,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Rene Tapsoba

According to U.N. estimates, low-income countries will have to increase their annual public spending by up to 30 percent of GDP to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), raising the question of whether they can do it all. This paper develops a new metric of fiscal space in low-income countries that accounts for macroeconomic uncertainty, allowing us to assess whether those spending needs can be accommodated. Illustrative simulations based on this methodology imply that, even under benign conditions, the fiscal space available in lowincome countries is likely insufficient to undertake the spending needed to achieve the SDGs. Improving public investment efficiency and domestic revenue mobilization can somewhat narrow the gap but it will require major efforts relative to recent trends.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475599048

ISBN 13

9781475599046

Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy

By: Ms.Martine Guerguil,Pierre Mandon,Rene Tapsoba

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Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy

By: Ms.Martine Guerguil,Pierre Mandon,Rene Tapsoba

This paper assesses the impact of different types of flexible fiscal rules on the procyclicality of fiscal policy with propensity scores-matching techniques, thus mitigating traditional self-selection problems. It finds that not all fiscal rules have the same impact: the design matters. Specifically, investment-friendly rules reduce the procyclicality of both overall and investment spending. The effect appears stronger in bad times and when the rule is enacted at the national level. The introduction of escape clauses in fiscal rules does not seem to affect the cyclical stance of public spending. The inclusion of cyclical adjustment features in spending rules yields broadly similar results. The results are mixed for cyclically-adjusted budget balance rules: enacting the latter is associated with countercyclical movements in overall spending, but with procyclical changes in investment spending. Structural factors, such as past debt, the level of development, the volatility of terms of trade, natural resources endowment, government stability, and the legal enforcement and monitoring arrangements backing the rule also influence the link between fiscal rules and countercyclicality. The results are robust to a wide set of alternative specifications.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513529064

ISBN 13

9781513529066

Harnessing Resource Wealth for Inclusive Growth in Fragile States

By: Ms.Corinne Delechat,Mr.John Clark JR,Pranav Gupta,Ms.Malangu Kabedi-Mbuyi,Mr.Mesmin Koulet-Vickot,Ms.Carla Macario,Mr.Toomas Orav,Mr.Manuel Rosales Torres,Rene Tapsoba,Dmitry Zhdankin,Ms.Susan Yang

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Harnessing Resource Wealth for Inclusive Growth in Fragile States

Like other fragile sub-Saharan African countries, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are seeking to harness their natural resource potential in the context of ambitious development strategies. This study investigates options for scaling up public investment and expanding social safety nets in a general equilibrium setting. First, it assesses the macro-fiscal implications of alternative fiscal rules for public investment, and, second, it explicitly accounts for redistribution through direct cash transfers. Results show that a sustainable non-resource deficit target is robust to the high uncertainty of resources output and prices, while delivering growth benefits through higher public investment. The scaling-up magnitudes, however, depend on the size of projected resource revenue and absorptive capacity. Adding a social transfer raises private consumption, suggesting that a fraction of the resource revenue could be used to expand safety nets.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498392571

ISBN 13

9781498392570

Inflation Targeting and Fiscal Rules

Do Interactions and Sequencing Matter?

By: Jean-Louis Combes,Mr.Xavier Debrun,Alexandru Minea,Rene Tapsoba

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Inflation Targeting and Fiscal Rules

Do Interactions and Sequencing Matter?

By: Jean-Louis Combes,Mr.Xavier Debrun,Alexandru Minea,Rene Tapsoba

The paper examines the joint impact of inflation targeting (IT) and fiscal rules (FR) on fiscal behavior and inflation in a broad panel of advanced and developing economies over the period 1990-2009. The main contribution of the paper is to show that, as suggested by the theoretical literature, interactions between FR and IT matter a great deal for policy outcomes. Specifically, the combination of FR and IT appears to deliver more disciplined macroeconomic policies than each of these institutions in isolation. In addition, the sequencing of the monetary and fiscal reforms plays a role: adopting FR before IT delivers stronger results than the reverse sequence.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498322379

ISBN 13

9781498322379

Climate Shocks and Domestic Conflicts in Africa

By: Yoro Diallo,Rene Tapsoba

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Climate Shocks and Domestic Conflicts in Africa

By: Yoro Diallo,Rene Tapsoba

This paper analyzes the interlinkages between climate shocks, domestic conflicts, and policy resilience in Africa. It builds on a Correlated Random Effect model to asess these interrelationships on a broad sample of 51 African countries over the 1990-2018 period. We find suggestive evidence that climate shocks, as captured through weather shocks, increase the likelihood of domestic conflicts, by as high as up to 38 percent. However, the effect holds only for intercommunal conflicts, not for government-involved conflicts. The effect is maginified in countries with more unequal income distribution and a stronger share of young male demographics. The results are robust to a wide set of sensitivity checks, including using various indicators of weather shocks and domestic conflicts, and alternative estimation techniques. The findings shed light on key policy resilience factors, including steadily improving domestic revenue mobilization, strengthening social protection and access to basic health care services, scaling up public investment in the agriculture sector, and stepping up anti-desertification efforts.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400227066

Settling the Inflation Targeting Debate: Lights from a Meta-Regression Analysis

By: Hippolyte W. Balima,Eric G. Kilama,Rene Tapsoba

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Settling the Inflation Targeting Debate: Lights from a Meta-Regression Analysis

By: Hippolyte W. Balima,Eric G. Kilama,Rene Tapsoba

Inflation targeting (IT) has gained much traction over the past two decades, becoming a framework of reference for the conduct of monetary policy. However, the debate about its very merits and macroeconomic consequences remains inconclusive. This paper digs deeper into the issue through a meta-regression analysis (MRA) of the existing literature, making it the first application of a MRA to the macroeconomic effects of IT adoption. Building on 8,059 estimated coefficients from a very broad sample of 113 studies, the paper finds that the empirical literature suffers from two types of publication bias. First, authors, editors and reviewers prefer results featuring beneficial effects of IT adoption on inflation volatility, real GDP growth and fiscal performances; second, they promote results with estimated coefficients that are significantly different from zero. However, after filtering out the publication biases, we still find meaningful (genuine) effects of IT in reducing inflation and real GDP growth volatility, but no significant genuine effects on inflation volatility and the level of real GDP growth. Interestingly, the results indicate that the impact of IT varies systematically across studies, depending on the sample structure and composition, the time coverage, the estimation techniques, country-specific factors, IT implementation parameters, and publication characteristics.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484324153

ISBN 13

9781484324158

Fiscal Resilience Building: Insights from a New Tax Revenue Diversification Index

By: Rasmané Ouedraogo,Rene Tapsoba,Moussé Sow,Ali Compaoré

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Fiscal Resilience Building: Insights from a New Tax Revenue Diversification Index

By: Rasmané Ouedraogo,Rene Tapsoba,Moussé Sow,Ali Compaoré

Does the reliance on diversified tax structure enhance resilience to fiscal risks? This paper gives an answer to this question by proposing a new cross-country tax revenue diversification index (RDI). The RDI builds on the Theil index, and unlike the few existing tax diversification indices, which are constructed only at the state level for the US, is computed at the national level, covering a broad panel of 127 countries over the period 2000-15. We find suggestive evidence that tax revenue diversification reduces tax revenue volatility, thus bringing to the data long-held views about the prominence of tax revenue diversification for fiscal resilience strengthening. While exploring the drivers of the RDI, we find that tax revenue diversification is not just a reflection of economic diversification, but also an outcome of macroeconomic, political and institutional factors. Interestingly, a non-monotone relationship is also at play between the RDI and economic development, with countries’ portfolio of tax sources getting more diversified as their economy develops, until a tipping point, where richer countries start finding it harder to diversify further their tax revenue sources.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513546031

ISBN 13

9781513546032

When Do We Repair the Roof? Insights from Responses to Fiscal Crisis Early Warning Signals

By: Mr.Jiro Honda,Rene Tapsoba,Ismael Issifou

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When Do We Repair the Roof? Insights from Responses to Fiscal Crisis Early Warning Signals

By: Mr.Jiro Honda,Rene Tapsoba,Ismael Issifou

Should policymakers wait for fiscal crisis early warning signals before repairing the roof? We give an answer to this question by investigating the interlinkages between early warning signals for fiscal crisis, policy responses, and policy outcomes, using a broad panel of 119 countries. We find that fiscal adjsutment is a good remedy for countries that act proactively, reducing their likelihood of facing fiscal crisis by up to about 60 percent. For those waiting for wake-up calls from early-detection tools, however, fiscal adjustment may not fully prevent fiscal crisis occurrence, with the chance of fiscal crisis prevention not only smaller (about 30 percent) but also statistically not significant. These findings highlight the prominence of repairing the roof when the sun is shining, particularly in countries with weak institutions.

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ISBN 10

1484350650

ISBN 13

9781484350652

A Quality of Growth Index for Developing Countries

A Proposal

By: Mr.Montfort Mlachila,Rene Tapsoba,Mr.Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba

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A Quality of Growth Index for Developing Countries

A Proposal

By: Mr.Montfort Mlachila,Rene Tapsoba,Mr.Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba

This paper proposes a new quality of growth index (QGI) for developing countries. The index encompasses both the intrinsic nature and social dimensions of growth, and is computed for over 90 countries for the period 1990-2011. The approach is premised on the fact that not all growth is created equal in terms of social outcomes, and that it does matter how one reaches from one level of income to another for various theoretical and empirical reasons. The paper finds that the quality of growth has been improving in the vast majority of developing countries over the past two decades, although the rate of convergence is relatively slow. At the same time, there are considerable cross-country variations across income levels and regions. Finally, emprirical investigations point to the fact that main factors of the quality of growth are political stability, public pro-poor spending, macroeconomic stability, financial development, institutional quality and external factors such as FDI.

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