Reda Cherif's Books

The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

Industrial policy is tainted with bad reputation among policymakers and academics and is often viewed as the road to perdition for developing economies. Yet the success of the Asian Miracles with industrial policy stands as an uncomfortable story that many ignore or claim it cannot be replicated. Using a theory and empirical evidence, we argue that one can learn more from miracles than failures. We suggest three key principles behind their success: (i) the support of domestic producers in sophisticated industries, beyond the initial comparative advantage; (ii) export orientation; and (iii) the pursuit of fierce competition with strict accountability.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498305563

ISBN 13

9781498305563

Knowledge Spillovers From Superstar Tech-Firms: The Case of Nokia

By: Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö,Andrea Richter Hume,Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Natalia Kuosmanen,Mika Pajarinen

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Knowledge Spillovers From Superstar Tech-Firms: The Case of Nokia

By: Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö,Andrea Richter Hume,Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Natalia Kuosmanen,Mika Pajarinen

Do workers hired from superstar tech-firms contribute to better firm performance? To address this question, we analyze the effects of tacit knowledge spillovers from Nokia in the context of a quasi-natural experiment in Finland, the closure of Nokia’s mobile device division in 2014 and the massive labor movement it implied. We apply a two-stage difference-in-differences approach with heterogeneous treatment to estimate the causal effects of hiring former Nokia employees. Our results provide new evidence supporting the positive causal role of former Nokia workers on firm performance. The evidence of the positive spillovers on firms is particularly strong in terms of employment and value added.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1589065298

ISBN 13

9781589065291

The Leap of the Tiger

How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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The Leap of the Tiger

How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

Only a few European economies and Korea and Taiwan Province of China reached high-income status during 1970-2010. Malaysia’s real income per capita increased to 26 percent of the U.S. level in 2010 from 20 percent in 1970. Despite relatively strong growth and a substantial improvement in export sophistication, Malaysia’s total factor productivity lagged behind that of Korea and Taiwan Province of China. We argue that what characterizes their experience in contrast to Malaysia’s is the creation of technologies by domestic firms and a push to leapfrog to the technological frontier at an early stage of development.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513590731

ISBN 13

9781513590738

A TIP Against the COVID-19 Pandemic

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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A TIP Against the COVID-19 Pandemic

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

A universal testing and isolation policy is the most viable way to vanquish a pandemic. Its implementation requires: (i) an epidemiological rather than clinical approach to testing, sacrificing accuracy for scalability, convenience and speed; and (ii) state intervention to ramp up production, similar to True Industrial Policy (TIP), on a global level to achieve a scale and speed the market alone would fail to provide. We sketch a strategy to tackle market failures and implement smart testing, especially in densely populated areas. The estimated cost of testing is dwarfed by its return, mitigating the economic fallout of the pandemic.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513548859

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9781513548852

Breaking the Oil Spell

The Gulf Falcons' Path to Diversification

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Min Zhu

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Breaking the Oil Spell

The Gulf Falcons' Path to Diversification

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Min Zhu

The “Gulf Falcons”—the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council—have high living standards as a result of large income flows from oil. The decline of oil prices between summer 2014 and fall 2015 underscores the urgency for the Gulf Falcons to diversify away from their current heavy reliance on oil exports. This book discusses attempts at diversification in the Middle East and North Africa and the complex choices policymakers face. It brings together the views of academics and policymakers to offer practical advice for future efforts to increase productivity growth.

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212

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484317424

ISBN 13

9781484317426

Stochastic Trends, Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Policy

By: Karim Barhoumi,Reda Cherif,Mr.Nooman Rebei

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Stochastic Trends, Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Policy

By: Karim Barhoumi,Reda Cherif,Mr.Nooman Rebei

We study empirically the reaction of fiscal policy to changes in the permanent and transitory components of GDP in a panel of countries. We find evidence that government spending tends to be counter-cyclical conditional on temporary shocks and pro-cyclical conditional on permanent shocks. We also find no evidence that developing countries are systematically different from developed ones in terms of fiscal policy. We present a theory featuring a fiscal reaction function to the output gap and a measure of debt sustainability. The fiscal impulse response to a permanent (temporary) shock to GDP is positive (negative) as the effect on debt sustainability (current output gap) dominates. The results are mostly sensitive to the relative weight of debt sustainability in the fiscal reaction function as well as to the extent of real rigidities in the economy.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513574671

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9781513574677

Riding the Energy Transition

Oil Beyond 2040

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Aditya Pande

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Riding the Energy Transition

Oil Beyond 2040

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Aditya Pande

Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484301242

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9781484301241

Public Debt Dynamics

The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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Public Debt Dynamics

The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path.

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1475510551

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9781475510553

Soaring of the Gulf Falcons

Diversification in the GCC Oil Exporters in Seven Propositions

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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Soaring of the Gulf Falcons

Diversification in the GCC Oil Exporters in Seven Propositions

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

A key priority for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is to create a dynamic non-oil tradable sector to support sustainable growth. Since export diversification takes a long time, it has to start now. We argue that the failure to diversify away from oil stems mainly from market failures rather than government failures. To tackle market failures, the government needs to change the incentive structure for workers and firms. Experiences of oil exporters that managed to diversify suggest that a focus on competing in international markets and an emphasis on technological upgrade and climbing the “quality ladder” are crucial.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498310648

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9781498310642

Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Brandon Buell,Reda Cherif,Carissa Chen,Karl Walentin,Jiawen Tang

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Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Brandon Buell,Reda Cherif,Carissa Chen,Karl Walentin,Jiawen Tang

The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513582496

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9781513582498

Industrial Policy for Growth and Diversification: A Conceptual Framework

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Mr. Nikola Spatafora,Rahul Giri,Dimitre Milkov,Mr. Saad N Quayyum,Mr. Gonzalo Salinas,Mr. Andrew M. Warner

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Industrial Policy for Growth and Diversification: A Conceptual Framework

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Mr. Nikola Spatafora,Rahul Giri,Dimitre Milkov,Mr. Saad N Quayyum,Mr. Gonzalo Salinas,Mr. Andrew M. Warner

As countries strive for a strong recovery and to recoup the losses incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, they need to map out a new path for development and high and sustained growth. Promoting diversification, developing new industrial capabilities, and designing the policies needed to achieve this goal should be a priority. A successful diversification strategy should tackle both broad policy failures, such as an unfavorable business environment and investment climate and sector-specific market failures. This departmental paper presents a conceptual framework to analyze industrial policy, defined as targeted sectoral interventions. The authors first discuss the key principles that should guide policymakers, that is, a focus on the market failures that could justify targeted sectoral interventions, as well as the potential government failures that can undermine these interventions. The authors then discuss some commonly employed policy tools, their rationale, and the associated pitfalls. Finally, the authors outline a stylized decision-making framework.

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ISBN 13

9798400214271

Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Reda Cherif,Sandesh Dhungana,Xiangming Fang,Mr.Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia,Yuanchen Yang,Mustafa Yenice,Jung Eun Yoon

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Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Reda Cherif,Sandesh Dhungana,Xiangming Fang,Mr.Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia,Yuanchen Yang,Mustafa Yenice,Jung Eun Yoon

Does greater product market competition improve external competitiveness and growth? This paper examines this question by using country-and firm-level data for a sample of 39 sub-Saharan African countries over 2000–17, as well as other emerging market economies and developing countries, and finds that an improvement in domestic competition is associated with a signficant increase in real GDP per capita growth rate, achieved mainly through an improvement in export competitiveness and productivity growth. Price levels, including of essential items, are also generally lowered with an increase in competition. Moreover, at the firm-level, evidence shows that greater competition—proxied through a decline in corporate market power—is associated with an increase in firm’s investment and the labor’s share in output. These effects are more pronounced in the manufacturing sector and among domestic firms compared to foreign firms.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513526375

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9781513526379

The Pitfalls of Protectionism: Import Substitution Vs. Export-Oriented Industrial Policy

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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The Pitfalls of Protectionism: Import Substitution Vs. Export-Oriented Industrial Policy

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

Industrial policies pursued in many developing countries in the 1950s-1970s largely failed while the industrial policies of the Asian Miracles succeeded. We argue that a key factor of success is industrial policy with export orientation in contrast to import substitution. Exporting encouraged competition, economies of scale, innovation, and local integration and provided market signals to policymakers. Even in a large market such as India, import substitution policies in the automotive industry failed because of micromanagement and misaligned incentives. We also analyze the risk tradeoffs involved in various industrial policy strategies and their implications on the 21st century industrial policies. While state interventions may be needed to develop some new capabilities and industries, trade protectionism is neither a necessary nor a sufficient tool and will most likely be counterproductive.

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ISBN 13

9798400270802

Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Lichen Wang

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Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Lichen Wang

We shed new light on the determinants of growth by tackling the blunt and weak instrument problems in the empirical growth literature. As an instrument for each endogenous variable, we propose average values of the same variable in neighboring countries. This method has the advantage of producing variable-specific and time-varying—namely, “sharp”—and strong instruments. We find that export sophistication is the only robust determinant of growth among standard growth determinants such as human capital, trade, financial development, and institutions. Our results suggest that other growth determinants may be important to the extent they help improve export sophistication.

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1484358066

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9781484358061

Industrial Policy for Growth and Diversification: A Conceptual Framework

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Mr. Nikola Spatafora,Rahul Giri,Dimitre Milkov,Mr. Saad N Quayyum,Mr. Gonzalo Salinas,Mr. Andrew M. Warner

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Industrial Policy for Growth and Diversification: A Conceptual Framework

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Mr. Nikola Spatafora,Rahul Giri,Dimitre Milkov,Mr. Saad N Quayyum,Mr. Gonzalo Salinas,Mr. Andrew M. Warner

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9798400214271

Fair and Inclusive Markets: Why Dynamism Matters

By: Philippe Aghion,Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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Fair and Inclusive Markets: Why Dynamism Matters

By: Philippe Aghion,Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

We show empirical evidence that there may not be a tradeoff between market income inequality and high sustained growth, which is key for poverty alleviation. We argue that the economies that achieved high sustained growth and low market income inequality are characterized by dynamism—a drive toward sophisticated export industries, innovation, and creative destruction and a high level of competition. What a country produces and how much it competes domestically and internationally are important for achieving fair and inclusive markets. We explore policy options to steer industrial and market structures toward providing growth opportunities for both workers and firms.

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1513568663

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9781513568669

Oil Exporters' Dilemma

How Much to Save and How Much to Invest

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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Oil Exporters' Dilemma

How Much to Save and How Much to Invest

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

Policymakers in oil-exporting countries confront the question of how to allocate oil revenues among consumption, saving, and investment in the face of high income volatility. We study this allocation problem in a precautionary saving and investment model under uncertainty. Consistent with data in the 2000s, precautionary saving is sizable and the marginal propensity to consume out of permanent shocks is below one, in stark contrast to the predictions of the perfect foresight model. The optimal investment rate is high if productivity in the tradable sector is high enough.

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1475502451

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9781475502459

Economic Diversification in the GCC

Past, Present, and Future

By: Mr.Tim Callen,Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Mr.Amgad Hegazy,Padamja Khandelwal

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Economic Diversification in the GCC

Past, Present, and Future

By: Mr.Tim Callen,Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Mr.Amgad Hegazy,Padamja Khandelwal

Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.

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International Monetary Fund

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1498301681

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9781498301688

Development Accounting and the Rise of TFP

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Reda Cherif

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Development Accounting and the Rise of TFP

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Reda Cherif

The paper presents evidence that the contribution of differences in total factor productivity (TFP) to income differences across countries steadily increased between 1970 and 2000. We verify that our finding is neither imputable to measurement errors in input factors nor dependent on the assumption of factor neutral differences in technology. We conclude that theories explaining cross-country income differences based on institutions or on forces that are constant over time, such as geography or legal origin, should be reconsidered in the light of their consistency with the rise of the explanatory power of TFP.

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International Monetary Fund

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145198278X

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9781451982787

A TIP Against the COVID-19 Pandemic

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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A TIP Against the COVID-19 Pandemic

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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1513548859

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9781513548852

Stochastic Trends, Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Policy

By: Karim Barhoumi,Reda Cherif,Mr.Nooman Rebei

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Stochastic Trends, Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Policy

By: Karim Barhoumi,Reda Cherif,Mr.Nooman Rebei

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1513574671

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9781513574677

Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Lichen Wang

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Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Lichen Wang

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1484358066

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9781484358061

Soaring of the Gulf Falcons

Diversification in the GCC Oil Exporters in Seven Propositions

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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Soaring of the Gulf Falcons

Diversification in the GCC Oil Exporters in Seven Propositions

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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International Monetary Fund

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1498319300

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9781498319300

Tourism Specialization and Economic Development

Evidence from the UNESCO World Heritage List

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Reda Cherif,John M. Piotrowski

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Tourism Specialization and Economic Development

Evidence from the UNESCO World Heritage List

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Reda Cherif,John M. Piotrowski

The present paper investigates whether tourism specialization is a viable strategy for development. We estimate standard growth equations augmented with a variable measuring tourism specialization using instrumental variables techniques for a large cross-section of countries for the period 1980-2002. We introduce an instrument for tourism based on the UNESCO World Heritage List. We find that there is a positive relationship between the extent of tourism specialization and economic growth. An increase of one standard deviation in the share of tourism in exports leads to about 0.5 percentage point in additional annual growth, everything else being constant. Our result holds against a large array of robustness checks.

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International Monetary Fund

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1451873239

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9781451873238

The Volatility Trap

Precautionary Saving, Investment, and Aggregate Risk

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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The Volatility Trap

Precautionary Saving, Investment, and Aggregate Risk

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

We study the effects of permanent and temporary income shocks on precautionary saving and investment in a "store-or-sow" model of growth. High volatility of permanent shocks results in high precautionary saving in the safe asset and low investment, or a "volatility trap." Namely, big savers invest relatively little. In contrast, low volatility of permanent shocks leads to low precautionary saving and high or low investment, depending on the volatility of temporary shocks. Empirical evidence shows a nonlinear relationship between investment and saving and that investment is a hump-shaped function of the volatility of permanent shocks, as predicted by the model.

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1475570694

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9781475570694

The Leap of the Tiger

How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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The Leap of the Tiger

How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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1513556010

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9781513556017

Breaking the Oil Spell

The Gulf Falcons' Path to Diversification

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Min Zhu

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Breaking the Oil Spell

The Gulf Falcons' Path to Diversification

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Min Zhu

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212

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International Monetary Fund

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1484317424

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9781484317426

Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Reda Cherif,Sandesh Dhungana,Xiangming Fang,Mr.Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia,Yuanchen Yang,Mustafa Yenice,Jung Eun Yoon

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Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Reda Cherif,Sandesh Dhungana,Xiangming Fang,Mr.Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia,Yuanchen Yang,Mustafa Yenice,Jung Eun Yoon

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1513526375

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9781513526379

Knowledge Spillovers From Superstar Tech-Firms: The Case of Nokia

By: Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö,Andrea Richter Hume,Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Natalia Kuosmanen,Mika Pajarinen

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Knowledge Spillovers From Superstar Tech-Firms: The Case of Nokia

By: Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö,Andrea Richter Hume,Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Natalia Kuosmanen,Mika Pajarinen

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International Monetary Fund

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1589065298

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9781589065291

Public Debt Dynamics

The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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Public Debt Dynamics

The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov

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1475510551

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9781475510553

Riding the Energy Transition

Oil Beyond 2040

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Aditya Pande

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Riding the Energy Transition

Oil Beyond 2040

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Aditya Pande

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1484301129

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9781484301128

Promoting Innovation: The Differential Impact of R&D Subsidies

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Christoph Grimpe,Wolfgang Sofka

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Promoting Innovation: The Differential Impact of R&D Subsidies

By: Reda Cherif,Fuad Hasanov,Christoph Grimpe,Wolfgang Sofka

We investigate the effect of R&D subsidies on firms’ innovation by ownership, industry, and firm size using German firm-level data. The impact of R&D subsidies is heterogeneous across industries for multinational corporations (MNCs) and domestic firms while it does not differ substantially by firm size. Domestic firms have a larger response in R&D spending in low-tech manufacturing, knowledge-intensive services, and technological services while the response of domestic and foreign MNCs is broadly similar and is greater in medium-tech and high-tech manufacturing. Foreign MNC subsidiaries’ response in terms of patents is greater than that of domestic MNCs in most industries.

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ISBN 13

9798400217968

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