Racheeda Boukezia's Books

Managing Fiscal Risks in the Middle East and North Africa

By: Racheeda Boukezia,Jacques Charaoui,Jonas M Frank,Mahmoud Harb,Mr. Maximilien Queyranne,Nathalie Reyes,Mr. Patrick F Ryan,Alexander F. Tieman

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Managing Fiscal Risks in the Middle East and North Africa

By: Racheeda Boukezia,Jacques Charaoui,Jonas M Frank,Mahmoud Harb,Mr. Maximilien Queyranne,Nathalie Reyes,Mr. Patrick F Ryan,Alexander F. Tieman

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are exposed to significant fiscal risks. This paper analyzes the sources of these fiscal risks in 17 low- and middle-income countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region, excluding high-income Gulf countries (MENAPEG), and discusses avenues for reform to strengthen fiscal risk management. The materialization of fiscal risks in MENAPEG has been driven by macroeconomic shocks, contingent liabilities, and tail-risk events. The region has a track record of volatile economic growth and sharp exchange rate movements. High dependence on hydrocarbon revenue among MENAPEG oil and gas exporters and pervasive universal subsidies generate considerable budgetary exposure to swings in commodity prices. Substantial government involvement in the economy and large state ownership of firms and banks exposes several MENAPEG countries to contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and the financial sector. Lastly, the region’s history of social unrest and conflicts together with tail-risk events such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, and natural disasters and climate change, have been important sources of fiscal risks. Many of the factors historically associated with the materialization of fiscal risks in MENAPEG countries are likely to remain sources of vulnerability in the future, raising the need for robust fiscal risk management frameworks. Policy reform can strengthen fiscal risk management in MENAPEG. This paper describes precedents where progress is made and provides a broad analytical framework for policymakers to build upon to fully embrace fiscal risk management in all its dimensions. Going forward, it is crucial for national authorities to enhance their capacity to identify, quantify, and assess risk factors and their budget’s exposure to them. This should be followed by thorough fiscal risk analysis to inform policy decisions to mitigate risks. Where risks cannot be mitigated or are judged to be acceptable, countries should consider adopting appropriate medium-term fiscal frameworks to build buffers to deal with them.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400229886

How to Build Cash Management Capacity in Fragile States and Low-Income Developing Countries

By: Sailendra Pattanayak,Racheeda Boukezia,Yasemin Hurcan,Ramon Hurtado

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How to Build Cash Management Capacity in Fragile States and Low-Income Developing Countries

By: Sailendra Pattanayak,Racheeda Boukezia,Yasemin Hurcan,Ramon Hurtado

Fiscal institutional capacity in most fragile states (FS) and several low-income developing countries (LIDCs) is much lower than in other countries. Governments in these countries face several cash management challenges because they often lack credible budgets, have smaller and less diversified revenue bases, have limited access to financial markets, and rely largely on donors to fund a large portion of their budgets. Available public funds in these countries often remain dispersed outside the control of the ministry of finance. In the absence of a good cash forecasting function, these countries typically resort to cash rationing to meet their priority spending needs, often in an ad hoc manner, which can adversely affect budget execution and achievement of fiscal policy targets. This note sets out the key objectives and building blocks of a cash management function in FS and LIDCs. It suggests several measures to progressively build cash management capacity in three interrelated areas: consolidating cash resources, forecasting cash flows, and managing cash balances with sound institutional setups.

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