Rabah Arezki's Books

The Globalization of Farmland: Theory and Empirical Evidence

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Christian Bogmans,Mr.Harris Selod

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The Globalization of Farmland: Theory and Empirical Evidence

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Christian Bogmans,Mr.Harris Selod

This paper is the first to provide both theoretical and empirical evidence of farmland globalization whereby international investors directly acquire large tracts of agricultural land in other countries. A theoretical framework explains the geography of farmland acquisitions as a function of cross-country differences in technology, endowments, trade costs, and land governance. An empirical test of the model using global data on transnational deals shows that international farmland investments are on the aggregate likely motivated by re-exports to investor countries rather than to world markets. This contrasts with traditional foreign direct investment patterns where horizontal as opposed to vertical FDI dominates.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484362101

ISBN 13

9781484362105

From Global Savings Glut to Financing Infrastructure

The Advent of Investment Platforms

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Patrick Bolton,Sanjay Peters,Frederic Samama,Joseph Stiglitz

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From Global Savings Glut to Financing Infrastructure

The Advent of Investment Platforms

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Patrick Bolton,Sanjay Peters,Frederic Samama,Joseph Stiglitz

This paper investigates the emerging global landscape for public-private co-investments in infrastructure. The creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and other so-called “infrastructure investment platforms” are an attempt to tap into the pool of both public and private long-term savings in order to channel the latter into much needed infrastructure projects. This paper puts these new initiatives into perspective by critically reviewing the literature and experience with public private partnerships in infrastructure. It concludes by identifying the main challenges policy makers and other actors will need to confront going forward and to turn infrastructure into an asset class of its own.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475591837

ISBN 13

9781475591835

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650

Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Kaddour Hadri,Mr.Prakash Loungani,Mr.Yao Rao

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Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650

Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Kaddour Hadri,Mr.Prakash Loungani,Mr.Yao Rao

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogeneous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475548990

ISBN 13

9781475548990

Reforms and External Imbalances

The Labor-Productivity Connection in the Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Daniel Lederman,Amani Abou Harb,Rachel Yuting Fan,Ha Nguyen

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Reforms and External Imbalances

The Labor-Productivity Connection in the Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Daniel Lederman,Amani Abou Harb,Rachel Yuting Fan,Ha Nguyen

World Bank economists expect GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to continue at a modest pace of 1.5 percent in 2019, slightly down from 1.6 percent in 2018. The declme reflects a contraction in one large economy, which more than offsets growth in other countries. In the medium term, the World Bank expects real GDP in the MENA to grow at 3.4 percent and 2.7 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The expected upswing is partially driven by ongoing policy reforms, as well as reconstruction efforts in some countries. However, MENA's modest recovery will be insufficient to change its historically low growth in per capita GDP. External factors are unlikely to pull the region out of its low-growth equilibrium. In addition, many countries in the region have persistent current account deficits. A recent deterioration in external balances across MENA constrained the region's ability to finance these deficits. Although the region has a low risk of experiencing sudden reversals in capital inflows in the short run, structural reforms capable of raising aggregate labor productivity are urgently needed to gradually reduce external imbalances. The report concludes by providing examples of reforms in fiscal policies, trade-related policies, social protection and labor markets, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in network industries.

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

1464814082

ISBN 13

9781464814082

Commodity Windfalls, Polarization, and Net Foreign Assets

Panel Data Evidenceon the Voracity Effect

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner

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Commodity Windfalls, Polarization, and Net Foreign Assets

Panel Data Evidenceon the Voracity Effect

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner

This paper examines the effect that windfalls from international commodity price booms have on net foreign assets in a panel of 145 countries during the period 1970-2007. The main finding is that windfalls from international commodity price booms lead to a significant increase in net foreign assets, but only in countries that are homogeneous. In polarized countries, net foreign assets significantly decreased. To explain this asymmetry, the paper shows that in polarized countries commodity windfalls lead to large increases in government spending, political corruption, and the risk of expropriation, with no overall effect on GDP per capita growth. The paper's findings are consistent with theoretical models of the current account that have a built-in voracity effect.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455205400

ISBN 13

9781455205400

Reaching New Heights

Promoting Fair Competition in the Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Andrea Barone,Klaus Decker,Dag Detter,Rachel Yuting Fan,Ha Nguyen,Graciela Murciego

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Reaching New Heights

Promoting Fair Competition in the Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Andrea Barone,Klaus Decker,Dag Detter,Rachel Yuting Fan,Ha Nguyen,Graciela Murciego

Part I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA’s economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks—most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth.

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

1464815046

ISBN 13

9781464815041

The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices

A Reappraisal

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Daniel Lederman,Mr.Hongyan Zhao

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The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices

A Reappraisal

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Daniel Lederman,Mr.Hongyan Zhao

This paper studies the volatility of commodity prices on the basis of a large dataset of monthly prices observed in international trade data from the United States over the period 2002 to 2011. The conventional wisdom in academia and policy circles is that primary commodity prices are more volatile than those of manufactured products, even though most of the existing evidence does not actually attempt to measure the volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. Rather the literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and products. This approach can be misleading. Indeed, the evidence presented in this paper suggests that on average prices of individual primary commodities may be less volatile than those of individual manufactured goods.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1463925964

ISBN 13

9781463925963

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Akito Matsumoto,Armen Nurbekyan,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao

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Oil Prices and the Global Economy

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Akito Matsumoto,Armen Nurbekyan,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475577745

ISBN 13

9781475577747

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018

A New Economy in Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Lili Mottaghi,Andrea Barone

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Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018

A New Economy in Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Lili Mottaghi,Andrea Barone

After a sharp fall in 2017, economic growth in MENA is projected to rebound to 3.1 percent in 2018, thanks to the positive global outlook, oil prices stabilizing at relatively higher levels, stabilization policies and reforms, and recovery and reconstruction as conflicts recede. The outlook for MENA remains positive, and the growth rebound is expected to gain momentum over the next two years, exceeding 3 percent in 2020. While stabilization policies have helped economies adjust in recent years, .a second phase of reforms is needed should be transformative if the region is to reach its potential and create jobs for hundred million young people who will enter the labor market in coming decades. In this report, we explore the role that public-private partnerships can play. not only in providing an alternative source of financing but in helping change the role of the state from the main provider of employment to an enabler of private sector activity. Studies have shown that the gap between MENA economies and fast-growing ones is the performance of the services sector. The disruptive technology offers new opportunities for boosting private-sector-led growth through enhancement of high-tech jobs in the services sector. The report argues that combining the region's fast-growing pool of university graduates and a heavy penetration of social media and smartphone, could serve as the foundation for a digital sector that could create much-needed private sector jobs for the youth over the next decade.

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

1464813671

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9781464813672

Are there Spillover Effects From Munis?

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Bertrand Candelon,Mr.Amadou N. R. Sy

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Are there Spillover Effects From Munis?

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Bertrand Candelon,Mr.Amadou N. R. Sy

This paper studies the spillover effects both within the bond markets for individual U.S. states and between the latter and the market for U.S. Treasury securities. We perform the Forbes and Rigobon (2002) spillover test using daily bond yield data over the period 2005 to 2011. Results are twofold. First, we find that between most markets for individual U.S. state bonds there are negative spillovers. In other words, an increase in borrowing costs in one U.S. state results in better borrowing conditions for other states. Second, we find no substantial spillover effect between shocks originating from state securities and from federal markets, except for a few large issuers. Using causality tests in the frequency domain, we find that the Treasury bond market directly causes changes in the markets for municipal bonds in both the short and long run. There is also some evidence of causality from the municipal to the Treasury bond market, but only of a long-run nature. Our results shed some light on the policy debate on the nature of spillover effects within fiscal unions.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

146392724X

ISBN 13

9781463927240

Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu

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Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu

In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

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408

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475545193

ISBN 13

9781475545197

Trading Together

Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-Covid Era

By: Rabah Arezki,Blanca Moreno-Dodson,Rachel Yuting Fan,Romeo Gansey,Ha Nguyen,Minh Cong Nguyen,Lili Mottaghi,Constantin Tsakas,Christina Wood,Nelly El-Mallakh

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Trading Together

Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-Covid Era

By: Rabah Arezki,Blanca Moreno-Dodson,Rachel Yuting Fan,Romeo Gansey,Ha Nguyen,Minh Cong Nguyen,Lili Mottaghi,Constantin Tsakas,Christina Wood,Nelly El-Mallakh

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120

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

1464816395

ISBN 13

9781464816390

Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

By: Mr.Aasim M. Husain,Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Peter Breuer,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Mr.Thomas Helbling,Mr.Paulo A. Medas,Mr.Martin Sommer

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Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

By: Mr.Aasim M. Husain,Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Peter Breuer,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Mr.Thomas Helbling,Mr.Paulo A. Medas,Mr.Martin Sommer

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

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International Monetary Fund

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151357227X

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9781513572277

What Drives the Global Land Rush?

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Klaus W. Deininger,Mr.Harris Selod

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What Drives the Global Land Rush?

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Klaus W. Deininger,Mr.Harris Selod

This paper studies the determinants of foreign land acquisition for large-scale agriculture. To do so, gravity models are estimated using data on bilateral investment relationships, together with newly constructed indicators of agro-ecological suitability in areas with low population density as well as indicators of land rights security. Results confirm the central role of agro-ecological potential as a pull factor. In contrast to the literature on foreign investment in general, the quality of the business climate is insignificant whereas weak land governance and tenure security for current users make countries more attractive for investors. Implications for policy are discussed.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1463923333

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9781463923334

Education Attainment in Public Administration Around the World

Evidence from a New Dataset

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Herbert Lui,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Mr.Frederik G Toscani

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Education Attainment in Public Administration Around the World

Evidence from a New Dataset

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Herbert Lui,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Mr.Frederik G Toscani

The paper provides a detailed description of a novel dataset on education attainment in public administrations covering the period 1981-2011 for 178 countries. The dataset uses information extracted from CVs for over 130,000 mid to senior level officials from mainly central banks and ministries of economy and finance. Our main finding is that there is little heterogeneity across regions when considering a non quality-adjusted measure of education attainment in public administrations. Adjusting our measure for quality, using a country wide academic ranking, reveals important cross-regional heterogeneity differing from that of standard measures of education attainment for the general population. The dataset also allows us to uncover important patterns in public administrations' education attainment along gender and seniority across regions. We further use the dataset to explore a few applications which provide some evidence of (i) the importance of salary incentives in attracting highly educated staff and (ii) a positive association between education attainment in public administrations and government effectiveness (e.g. higher tax revenue mobilization, limiting corruption, better public finance management and private market support).

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475510667

ISBN 13

9781475510669

International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner

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International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner

We examine the effects that international commodity price shocks have on external debt using panel data for a world sample of 93 countries spanning the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the level of external debt in democracies, but to no significant reduction in the level of external debt in autocracies. To explain this result, we show that positive commodity price shocks lead to a statistically significant and quantitatively large increase in total government expenditures in autocracies. In democracies on the other hand government expenditures did not increase significantly. We also document that following positive windfalls from international commodity price shocks the risk of default on external debt decreased in democracies, but increased significantly in autocracies.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451963424

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9781451963427

Food Prices and Political Instability

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner

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Food Prices and Political Instability

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner

We examine the effects that variations in the international food prices have on democracy and intra-state conflict using panel data for over 120 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that in Low Income Countries increases in the international food prices lead to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase in the incidence of anti-government demonstrations, riots, and civil conflict. In the High Income Countries variations in the international food prices have no significant effects on democratic institutions and measures of intra-state conflict. Our empirical results point to a significant externality of variations in international food prices on Low Income Countries' social and political stability.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455221066

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9781455221066

Immigration and National Identity

North African Political Movements in Colonial and Postcolonial France

By: Rabah Aissaoui

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Immigration and National Identity

North African Political Movements in Colonial and Postcolonial France

By: Rabah Aissaoui

Immigration is at the heart of social, cultural and political debate in France, a country still struggling to come to terms with its postcolonial legacy. Here Assaoui provides a radical re-examination of the assumptions about immigrants and ethnic and national identity through a study of the Maghrebis, especially their political mobilisation from the colonial to the postcolonial period. Combining insights from the archive and interviews with political activists, he examines the diaspora's voice and their struggle against racism and oppression.Through a study of key political movements, he shows how they constructed a powerful and consistent political tradition and charts the development, in France, of the Algerian anti-colonial and nationalist movement, as well as new forms of political activism during the 1970s. "Immigration and National Identity" foregrounds the migrants' perspective and the necessary historical background to the fraught contemporary context of immigrant communities in France. It will be valuable for all those concerned with immigration, colonialism and postcolonialism, cultural studies, sociology and the study of contemporary France.

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321

Publisher

Bloomsbury Publishing

Published Date

ISBN 10

0857713469

ISBN 13

9780857713469

Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Akito Matsumoto

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Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Akito Matsumoto

A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analyses distillated in a nontechnical manner. Includes discussion of structural trends behind commodities markets, their future implications, and policy implications.

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112

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484310322

ISBN 13

9781484310328

News Shocks in Open Economies

Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Valerie A Ramey,Liugang Sheng

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News Shocks in Open Economies

Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Valerie A Ramey,Liugang Sheng

This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513590766

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9781513590769

Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth

Perspectives From the Middle East and North Africa

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Mustapha K. Nabli

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Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth

Perspectives From the Middle East and North Africa

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Mustapha K. Nabli

This paper takes stock of the economic performance of resource rich countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the past forty years. While those countries have maintained high levels of income per capita, they have performed poorly when going beyond the assessment based on standard income level measures. Resource rich countries in MENA have experienced relatively low and non inclusive economic growth as well as high levels of macroeconomic volatility. Important improvements in health and education have taken place but the quality of the provision of public goods and services remains an important source of concerns. Looking forward we argue that the success of economic reforms in MENA rests on the ability of those countries to invest boldly in building inclusive institutions as well as high levels of human capacity in public administrations.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475553625

ISBN 13

9781475553628

Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

The Role of Political Institutions

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner

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Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

The Role of Political Institutions

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner

We examine the effect that revenue windfalls from international commodity price shocks have on sovereign bond spreads using panel data for 30 emerging market economies during the period 1997-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the sovereign bond spread in democracies, but to a significant increase in the spread in autocracies. To explain our finding we show that, consistent with the political economy literature on the resource curse, revenue windfalls from international commodity price shocks significantly increased real per capita GDP growth in democracies, while in autocracies GDP per capita growth decreased.

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International Monetary Fund

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1455202134

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9781455202133

Where Missing Data Hurts the Most

Low Growth, Macroeconomic Vulnerability, and Labor Market Outcomes in Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Daniel Lederman,Nelly El-Mallakh,Asif Mohammed Islam,Amani Abou Harb,Rachel Yuting Fan,Ha Minh Nguyen,Marwane Zouaidi

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Where Missing Data Hurts the Most

Low Growth, Macroeconomic Vulnerability, and Labor Market Outcomes in Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Daniel Lederman,Nelly El-Mallakh,Asif Mohammed Islam,Amani Abou Harb,Rachel Yuting Fan,Ha Minh Nguyen,Marwane Zouaidi

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World Bank Publications

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1464815615

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9781464815614

Reaching New Heights

Promoting Fair Competition in the Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Andrea Barone,Klaus Decker,Dag Detter,Rachel Yuting Fan,Ha Nguyen,Graciela Murciego

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Reaching New Heights

Promoting Fair Competition in the Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Andrea Barone,Klaus Decker,Dag Detter,Rachel Yuting Fan,Ha Nguyen,Graciela Murciego

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World Bank Publications

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1464815046

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9781464815041

Resource Windfalls, Optimal Public Investment and Redistribution

The Role of Total Factor Productivity and Administrative Capacity

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Arnaud Dupuy,Mr.Alan H. Gelb

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Resource Windfalls, Optimal Public Investment and Redistribution

The Role of Total Factor Productivity and Administrative Capacity

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Arnaud Dupuy,Mr.Alan H. Gelb

This paper studies the optimal public investment decisions in countries experiencing a resource windfall. To do so, we use an augmented version of the Permanent Income framework with public investment faced with adjustment costs capturing the associated administrative capacity as well as government direct transfers. A key assumption is that those adjustment costs rise with the size of the resource windfall. The main results from the analytical model are threefold. First, a larger resource windfall commands a lower level of public capital but a higher level of redistribution through transfers. Second, weaker administrative capacity lowers the increase in optimal public capital following a resource windfall. Third, higher total factor productivity in the non-resource sector reduces the degree of des-investment in public capital commanded by weaker administrative capacity. We further extend our basic model to allow for "investing in investing" - that is public investment in administrative capacity - by endogenizing the adjustment cost in public investment. Results from the numerical simulations suggest, among other things, that a higher initial stock of public administrative "know how" leads to a higher level of optimal public investment following a resource windfall. Implications for policy are discussed.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475505507

ISBN 13

9781475505504

Development Accounting and the Rise of TFP

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Reda Cherif

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Development Accounting and the Rise of TFP

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Reda Cherif

The paper presents evidence that the contribution of differences in total factor productivity (TFP) to income differences across countries steadily increased between 1970 and 2000. We verify that our finding is neither imputable to measurement errors in input factors nor dependent on the assumption of factor neutral differences in technology. We conclude that theories explaining cross-country income differences based on institutions or on forces that are constant over time, such as geography or legal origin, should be reconsidered in the light of their consistency with the rise of the explanatory power of TFP.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

145198278X

ISBN 13

9781451982787

Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

By: Mr.Aasim M. Husain,Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Peter Breuer,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Mr.Thomas Helbling,Mr.Paulo A. Medas,Mr.Martin Sommer

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Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

By: Mr.Aasim M. Husain,Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Peter Breuer,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Mr.Thomas Helbling,Mr.Paulo A. Medas,Mr.Martin Sommer

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

151357227X

ISBN 13

9781513572277

Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu

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Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Marc Quintyn,Min Zhu

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408

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475545193

ISBN 13

9781475545197

The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices

A Reappraisal

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Daniel Lederman,Mr.Hongyan Zhao

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The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices

A Reappraisal

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Daniel Lederman,Mr.Hongyan Zhao

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1463925964

ISBN 13

9781463925963

Trading Together

Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-Covid Era

By: Rabah Arezki,Blanca Moreno-Dodson,Rachel Yuting Fan,Romeo Gansey,Ha Nguyen,Minh Cong Nguyen,Lili Mottaghi,Constantin Tsakas,Christina Wood,Nelly El-Mallakh

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Trading Together

Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-Covid Era

By: Rabah Arezki,Blanca Moreno-Dodson,Rachel Yuting Fan,Romeo Gansey,Ha Nguyen,Minh Cong Nguyen,Lili Mottaghi,Constantin Tsakas,Christina Wood,Nelly El-Mallakh

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120

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World Bank Publications

Published Date

ISBN 10

1464816395

ISBN 13

9781464816390

Reforms and External Imbalances

The Labor-Productivity Connection in the Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Daniel Lederman,Amani Abou Harb,Rachel Yuting Fan,Ha Nguyen

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Reforms and External Imbalances

The Labor-Productivity Connection in the Middle East and North Africa

By: Rabah Arezki,Daniel Lederman,Amani Abou Harb,Rachel Yuting Fan,Ha Nguyen

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

1464814082

ISBN 13

9781464814082

News Shocks in Open Economies

Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Valerie A Ramey,Liugang Sheng

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News Shocks in Open Economies

Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Valerie A Ramey,Liugang Sheng

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513543156

ISBN 13

9781513543154

International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner

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International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451963424

ISBN 13

9781451963427

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650

Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Kaddour Hadri,Mr.Prakash Loungani,Mr.Yao Rao

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Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650

Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Kaddour Hadri,Mr.Prakash Loungani,Mr.Yao Rao

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484341155

ISBN 13

9781484341155

Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Kareem Ismail

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Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Kareem Ismail

We examine the behavior of expenditure policy during boom-bust in commodity price cycles, and its implication for real exchange rate movements. To do so, we introduce a Dutch disease model with downward rigidities in government spending to revenue shock. This model leads to a decoupling between real exchange rate and commodity price movement during busts. We test our model's theoretical predictions and underlying assumptions using panel data for 32 oil-producing countries over the period 1992 to 2009. Results are threefold. First, we find that change in current spending have a stronger impact on the change in real exchange rate compared to capital spending. Second, we find that current spending is downwardly sticky, but increases in boom time, and conversely for capital spending. Third, we find limited evidence that fiscal rules have helped reduce the degree of responsiveness of current spending during booms. In contrast, we find evidence that fiscal rules are associated with a significant reduction in capital expenditure during busts while responsiveness to boosts is more muted. This raises concerns about potential adverse consequences of this asymmetry on economic performance in oil-producing countries.

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ISBN 10

1451982712

ISBN 13

9781451982718

Resource Windfalls, Macroeconomic Stability and Growth

The Role of Political Institutions

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Kazim Kazimov,Mr.Kirk Hamilton

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Resource Windfalls, Macroeconomic Stability and Growth

The Role of Political Institutions

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Mr.Kazim Kazimov,Mr.Kirk Hamilton

We use a new dataset on non-resource GDP to examine the performance of commodity-exporting countries in terms of macroeconomic stability and economic growth in a panel of up to 129 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main findings are threefold. First, we find that overall government spending in commodity-exporting countries has been procyclical. Second, we find that resource windfalls initially crowd out non-resource GDP which then increases as a result of the fiscal expansion. Third, we find that in the long run resource windfalls have negative effects on non-resource sector GDP growth. Yet, the effects turn out to be statistically insignificant when controlling for government spending. Both the effects of resource windfalls on macroeconomic stability and economic growth are moderated by the quality of political institutions.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455266434

ISBN 13

9781455266432

Book's by Rabah Arezki

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