Qianying Chen's Books

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress

By: Ms.Hiroko Oura,Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye,Qianying Chen,Mr.Dale F. Gray,Ms.Natalia T. Tamirisa

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International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress

By: Ms.Hiroko Oura,Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye,Qianying Chen,Mr.Dale F. Gray,Ms.Natalia T. Tamirisa

The paper evaluates how increases in banks’ and nonfinancial corporates’ default risk are transmitted in the global economy, using in a vector autoregression model for 30 advanced and emerging economies for the period from January 1996 to December 2008. The results point to two-way causality between bank and corporate distress and to significant global macroeconomic and financial spillovers from either type of distress when it originates in a systemic economy. Corporate distress in advanced economies has a larger impact on economic growth in emerging economies than bank distress in advanced economies has. In contrast, activity in advanced economies is more vulnerable to bank distress than to corporate distress.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455200832

ISBN 13

9781455200832

Banking in a Steady State of Low Growth and Interest Rates

By: Qianying Chen,Mitsuru Katagiri,Jay Surti

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Banking in a Steady State of Low Growth and Interest Rates

By: Qianying Chen,Mitsuru Katagiri,Jay Surti

A prolonged low-interest-rate environment presents a significant challenge to banks and is likely to entail major changes to their business models over the long-run. Lower returns to maturity transformation in the face of flatter yield curves and an inability to offer deposit rates significantly below zero combine to compress bank earnings in this environment. Smaller, deposit-funded, less diversified banks are hurt most, increasing consolidation pressures and reach-for-yield incentives, presenting new financial stability challenges.To the extent that such an economic environment reflects a new, steady-state with lower equilibrium growth driven by population aging and slower productivity growth, lower credit demand is likely to drive banking toward provision of fee-based, utility services.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484373871

ISBN 13

9781484373873

The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

By: Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Qianying Chen,Claudio Raddatz,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie

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The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

By: Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Qianying Chen,Claudio Raddatz,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie

We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

151351377X

ISBN 13

9781513513775

Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers

By: Qianying Chen,Andrew Filardo,Mr.Dong He,Mr.Feng Zhu

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Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers

By: Qianying Chen,Andrew Filardo,Mr.Dong He,Mr.Feng Zhu

We study the impact of the US quantitative easing (QE) on both the emerging and advanced economies, estimating a global vector error-correction model (GVECM) and conducting counterfactual analyses. We focus on the effects of reductions in the US term and corporate spreads. First, US QE measures reducing the US corporate spread appear to be more important than lowering the US term spread. Second, US QE measures might have prevented episodes of prolonged recession and deflation in the advanced economies. Third, the estimated effects on the emerging economies have been diverse but often larger than those recorded in the US and other advanced economies. The heterogeneous effects from US QE measures indicate unevenly distributed benefits and costs.

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