Philip Van Notten's Books

Writing on the Wall

Scenario Development in Times of Discontinuity

By: Philip Van Notten

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Writing on the Wall

Scenario Development in Times of Discontinuity

By: Philip Van Notten

Although the significance of '9/11' is subject to debate, it is symbolic of a general sentiment of discontinuity whereby society is vulnerable to undefined and highly disruptive events. Recent catalysts of this sentiment are eye-catching developments such as the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and bird flu outbreaks, the Enron and Parmalat scandals, political assassinations in Sweden and the Netherlands, regime changes in Iraq and Afghanistan, and terrorist attacks in Bali, Istanbul, Madrid, and various parts of the Middle East. However, recent discontinuities should not be seen as evidence that discontinuities occur more frequently now than they did before. Looking back in history we see that disruptive processes are common. For example, 25 years ago few Europeans would have predicted the upcoming upheavals on their own continent: the collapse of communism, Berlin as the capital of a reunited Germany, the wars in the former Yugoslavia, the single European currency, and the near doubling of the number of European Union member states. Changes elsewhere have been no less discontinuous and unforeseen: the fall of the Asian tigers, the emergence of the Internet and mobile telecommunication, and the presidency of Nelson Mandela. Societal discontinuity is a relatively new area of concern in policy development. Since the 1970s the consideration of change and discontinuity has gained some ground over predictive forecasting, which tended to reason from continuous developments and linear processes. Rather than making forecasting the future, it has become popular to use scenarios as a manner to consider several possible futures. Scenarios are coherent descriptions of alternative hypothetical futures that reflect different perspectives on past, present, and future developments, which can serve as a basis for action. Scenario development aims to combine analytical knowledge with creative thinking in an effort to capture a wide range of possible future developments in a limited number of outlooks. Scenario development assumes that the future is uncertain and the directions in which current developments might range from the conventional to the revolutionary. In theory, scenario development is a way to consider future discontinuity. However, there are indications that the theoretical promise is not reflected in scenario practice. Research has shown that scenarios do not consider the idea of discontinuity as a matter of course. In our research, we found that a scenario study would benefit from efforts to create and foster a 'culture of curiosity' for exploring the future and the possible discontinuities rather than simply commissioning a scenario study to provide insights about the future. Only then can one read the writing on the wall of future developments.

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Page Count

225

Publisher

Universal-Publishers

Published Date

ISBN 10

1581122659

ISBN 13

9781581122657

Climate Adaptation and Flood Risk in Coastal Cities

By: Jeroen Aerts,Wouter Botzen,Malcolm Bowman,Piet Dircke,Philip Ward

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Climate Adaptation and Flood Risk in Coastal Cities

By: Jeroen Aerts,Wouter Botzen,Malcolm Bowman,Piet Dircke,Philip Ward

This book presents climate adaptation and flood risk problems and solutions in coastal cities including an independent investigation of adaptation paths and problems in Rotterdam, New York and Jakarta. The comparison draws out lessons that each city can learn from the others. While the main focus is on coastal flooding, cities are also affected by climate change in other ways, including impacts that occur away from the coast. The New York City Water Supply System, for example, stretches as far as 120 miles upstate, and the New York City Department of Environmental Protection has undertaken extensive climate assessment not only for its coastal facilities, but also for its upstate facilities, which will be affected by rising temperatures, droughts, inland flooding and water quality changes. The authors examine key questions, such as: Are current city plans climate proof or do we need to finetune our ongoing investments? Can we develop a flood proof subway system? Can we develop new infrastructure in such a way that it serves flood protection, housing and natural values?

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Page Count

404

Publisher

Routledge

Published Date

ISBN 10

113652892X

ISBN 13

9781136528927

A Family Place

A Hudson Valley Farm, Three Centuries, Five Wars, One Family

By: Leila Philip

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A Family Place

A Hudson Valley Farm, Three Centuries, Five Wars, One Family

By: Leila Philip

One woman’s journey to uncover her family’s history and understand the ties that bind us to a particular place.

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Page Count

353

Publisher

SUNY Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1438427603

ISBN 13

9781438427607

South Africa Highlights

By: Philip Briggs

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South Africa Highlights

By: Philip Briggs

This concise and colorful guidebook provides an expert overview of South Africa's top highlights, from vibrant Cape Town to the spectacular wildlife of the Kruger Park.

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Page Count

308

Publisher

Bradt Travel Guides

Published Date

ISBN 10

1841623687

ISBN 13

9781841623689

Writing on the Wall

Scenario Development in Times of Discontinuity

By: Philip Van Notten

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Writing on the Wall

Scenario Development in Times of Discontinuity

By: Philip Van Notten

Average ratings

N/A

Write a review

Solve jigsaw puzzle

Age

Page Count

225

Publisher

Universal-Publishers

Published Date

ISBN 10

1581122659

ISBN 13

9781581122657

Book's by Philip Van Notten

Writing on the Wall

Writing on the Wall

Climate Adaptation and Flood Risk in Coastal Cities

Climate Adaptation and Flood Risk in Coastal Cities

A Family Place

A Family Place

South Africa Highlights

South Africa Highlights

Writing on the Wall

Writing on the Wall

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