Brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment of model forecasts from an econometric perspective.
In this short and very practical 2002 introduction to econometrics Philip Hans Franses guides the reader through the essential concepts of econometrics. Central to the book are practical questions in various economic disciplines, which can be answered using econometric methods and models. The book focuses on a limited number of the essential, most widely used methods, before going on to review the basics of econometrics. The book ends with a number of case studies drawn from recent empirical work to provide an intuitive illustration of what econometricians do when faced with practical questions. Throughout the book Franses emphasises the importance of specification, evaluation and implementation of models appropriate to the data. Assuming basic familiarity only with matrix algebra and calculus the book is designed to appeal as either a short stand-alone introduction for students embarking on an empirical research project or as a supplement to any standard introductory textbook.
With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.
In this insightful, modern study of the use of periodic models in the description and forecasting of economic data the authors investigate such areas as seasonal time series, periodic time series models, periodic integration and periodic cointegration.
Nowadays applied work in business and economics requires a solid understanding of econometric methods to support decision-making. Combining a solid exposition of econometric methods with an application-oriented approach, this rigorous textbook provides students with a working understanding and hands-on experience of current econometrics. Taking a 'learning by doing' approach, it covers basic econometric methods (statistics, simple and multiple regression, nonlinear regression, maximum likelihood, and generalized method of moments), and addresses the creative process of model building with due attention to diagnostic testing and model improvement. Its last part is devoted to two major application areas: the econometrics of choice data (logit and probit, multinomial and ordered choice, truncated and censored data, and duration data) and the econometrics of time series data (univariate time series, trends, volatility, vector autoregressions, and a brief discussion of SUR models, panel data, and simultaneous equations). · Real-world text examples and practical exercise questions stimulate active learning and show how econometrics can solve practical questions in modern business and economic management. · Focuses on the core of econometrics, regression, and covers two major advanced topics, choice data with applications in marketing and micro-economics, and time series data with applications in finance and macro-economics. · Learning-support features include concise, manageable sections of text, frequent cross-references to related and background material, summaries, computational schemes, keyword lists, suggested further reading, exercise sets, and online data sets and solutions. · Derivations and theory exercises are clearly marked for students in advanced courses. This textbook is perfect for advanced undergraduate students, new graduate students, and applied researchers in econometrics, business, and economics, and for researchers in other fields that draw on modern applied econometrics.
Advances in data collection and data storage techniques have enabled marketing researchers to study the individual characteristics of a large range of transactions and purchases, in particular the effects of household-specific characteristics. This 2001 book presents important and practically relevant quantitative models for marketing research. Each model is presented in detail with a self-contained discussion, which includes: a demonstration of the mechanics of the model, empirical analysis, real world examples, and interpretation of results and findings. The reader of the book will learn how to apply the techniques, as well as understand the methodological developments in the academic literature. Pathways are offered in the book for students and practitioners with differing numerical skill levels; a basic knowledge of elementary numerical techniques is assumed.
With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.
Econometrics can at first appear a highly technical subject, but it can also equip the practitioner with a useful skillset of smart ways to formulate research questions and collect data. Enjoyable Econometrics applies econometric methods to a variety of unusual and engaging research questions, often beyond the realm of economics, demonstrating the great potential of using such methods to understand a wide range of phenomena. Unlike the typical textbook approach, Enjoyable Econometrics follows in the footsteps of Freakonomics by posing interesting questions first before introducing the methodology to find the answers. Therefore, rather than equation-heavy sections based around complex methodologies, the reader is presented with chapters on 'Money' and 'Fashion, Art and Music'. Franses writes in a way that will enthuse and motivate the economics student embarking upon the essential study of econometrics. Indeed, the book shows that econometric methods can be applied to almost anything.
To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.
The classic Marketing Management is an undisputed global best-seller – an encyclopedia of marketing considered by many as the authoritative book on the subject.
What is the shade of difference between Sod's Law and Murphy's Law? What is the Helsinki Bus Station Theory? What part do the McNaughton Rules and the Miranda Law play in criminal justice? Plenty of books claim to tell you how to succeed in life, love or business with infallible sets of guidelines and self-help principles, but have nothing to say about the laws - often hidden ones - which really govern our lives. Skyscrapers, Hemlines and the Eddie Murphy Rule is an anthology of the many quirky, useful or entertaining rules and principles, which, if they are well known, crop up without explanation or, if confined to specialist circles, deserve to be more widely understood and appreciated. Here is a deliberately diverse scrapbook of the attempts to provide a system and an explanation, whether serious or humorous, eccentric or plain mischievous, for human activity across politics, science, sport, economics, the Internet, work, and life itself.
Nowadays applied work in business and economics requires a solid understanding of econometric methods to support decision-making. Combining a solid exposition of econometric methods with an application-oriented approach, this rigorous textbook provides students with a working understanding and hands-on experience of current econometrics. Taking a 'learning by doing' approach, it covers basic econometric methods (statistics, simple and multiple regression, nonlinear regression, maximum likelihood, and generalized method of moments), and addresses the creative process of model building with due attention to diagnostic testing and model improvement. Its last part is devoted to two major application areas: the econometrics of choice data (logit and probit, multinomial and ordered choice, truncated and censored data, and duration data) and the econometrics of time series data (univariate time series, trends, volatility, vector autoregressions, and a brief discussion of SUR models, panel data, and simultaneous equations). · Real-world text examples and practical exercise questions stimulate active learning and show how econometrics can solve practical questions in modern business and economic management. · Focuses on the core of econometrics, regression, and covers two major advanced topics, choice data with applications in marketing and micro-economics, and time series data with applications in finance and macro-economics. · Learning-support features include concise, manageable sections of text, frequent cross-references to related and background material, summaries, computational schemes, keyword lists, suggested further reading, exercise sets, and online data sets and solutions. · Derivations and theory exercises are clearly marked for students in advanced courses. This textbook is perfect for advanced undergraduate students, new graduate students, and applied researchers in econometrics, business, and economics, and for researchers in other fields that draw on modern applied econometrics.
Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting is the most up-to-date and accessible guide to one of the fastest growing areas in business and economic analysis. The author is regarded as one of the most accomplished econometricians in Europe and this book is based on his highly successful lecture program for multidisciplinary, graduate and upper level undergraduate students. Early chapters of the book focus on the typical features of time series data in business and economics. Later chapters are concerned with the discussion of some important concepts in time series analysis, the techniques that can be readily applied in practice, different modeling methods and model structures, multivariate time, and the common aspects across time series.
This book considers periodic time series models for seasonal data, characterized by parameters that differ across the seasons, and focuses on their usefulness for out-of-sample forecasting. Providing an up-to-date survey of the recent developments in periodic time series, the book presents a large number of empirical results. The first part of the book deals with model selection, diagnostic checking and forecasting of univariate periodic autoregressive models. Tests for periodic integration, are discussed, and an extensive discussion of the role of deterministic regressors in testing for periodic integration and in forecasting is provided. The second part discusses multivariate periodic autoregressive models. It provides an overview of periodic cointegration models, as these are the most relevant. This overview contains single-equation type tests and a full-system approach based on generalized method of moments. All methods are illustrated with extensive examples, and the book will be of interest to advanced graduate students and researchers in econometrics, as well as practitioners looking for an understanding of how to approach seasonal data.
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