Philip Ayres's Books

Writing on the Wall

Scenario Development in Times of Discontinuity

By: Philip Van Notten

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Writing on the Wall

Scenario Development in Times of Discontinuity

By: Philip Van Notten

Although the significance of '9/11' is subject to debate, it is symbolic of a general sentiment of discontinuity whereby society is vulnerable to undefined and highly disruptive events. Recent catalysts of this sentiment are eye-catching developments such as the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and bird flu outbreaks, the Enron and Parmalat scandals, political assassinations in Sweden and the Netherlands, regime changes in Iraq and Afghanistan, and terrorist attacks in Bali, Istanbul, Madrid, and various parts of the Middle East. However, recent discontinuities should not be seen as evidence that discontinuities occur more frequently now than they did before. Looking back in history we see that disruptive processes are common. For example, 25 years ago few Europeans would have predicted the upcoming upheavals on their own continent: the collapse of communism, Berlin as the capital of a reunited Germany, the wars in the former Yugoslavia, the single European currency, and the near doubling of the number of European Union member states. Changes elsewhere have been no less discontinuous and unforeseen: the fall of the Asian tigers, the emergence of the Internet and mobile telecommunication, and the presidency of Nelson Mandela. Societal discontinuity is a relatively new area of concern in policy development. Since the 1970s the consideration of change and discontinuity has gained some ground over predictive forecasting, which tended to reason from continuous developments and linear processes. Rather than making forecasting the future, it has become popular to use scenarios as a manner to consider several possible futures. Scenarios are coherent descriptions of alternative hypothetical futures that reflect different perspectives on past, present, and future developments, which can serve as a basis for action. Scenario development aims to combine analytical knowledge with creative thinking in an effort to capture a wide range of possible future developments in a limited number of outlooks. Scenario development assumes that the future is uncertain and the directions in which current developments might range from the conventional to the revolutionary. In theory, scenario development is a way to consider future discontinuity. However, there are indications that the theoretical promise is not reflected in scenario practice. Research has shown that scenarios do not consider the idea of discontinuity as a matter of course. In our research, we found that a scenario study would benefit from efforts to create and foster a 'culture of curiosity' for exploring the future and the possible discontinuities rather than simply commissioning a scenario study to provide insights about the future. Only then can one read the writing on the wall of future developments.

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Page Count

225

Publisher

Universal-Publishers

Published Date

ISBN 10

1581122659

ISBN 13

9781581122657

Beyond Dissent: Essays in Institutional Economics

Essays in Institutional Economics

By: Philip A. Klein

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Beyond Dissent: Essays in Institutional Economics

Essays in Institutional Economics

By: Philip A. Klein

This text provides an ethnography of a Chinese middle school based on fieldwork conducted in 1988 to 1989. It provides a way of looking at classroom and societal interactions in terms of the interplay among criticism, face and shame.

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Page Count

345

Publisher

Routledge

Published Date

ISBN 10

131548420X

ISBN 13

9781315484204

Argentine Ornithology, Volume II (of II) - A descriptive catalogue of the birds of the Argentine Republic.

By: Philip Lutley Sclater,William Henry Hudson

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Argentine Ornithology, Volume II (of II) - A descriptive catalogue of the birds of the Argentine Republic.

By: Philip Lutley Sclater,William Henry Hudson

This is volume II of William Henry Hudson's "Argentine Ornithology". It is a comprehensive encyclopedia of the birds native to Argentina, with detailed descriptions, historical information, notes on natural history, and more. This volume will appeal to modern readers with an interest in ornithology, and it would make for a fantastic addition to collections of allied literature. William Henry Hudson (1841 - 1922) was an Anglo-Argentine naturalist, author, and ornithologist. He was one of the founding members of the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, and is best known for his novel "Green Mansions" (1904). Other notable works include "A Crystal Age" (1887) and "Far Away and Long Ago" (1918), which has since been adapted into a film. Contents include: "Fam. I. TURDIDÆ, or THRUSHES", "Fam. II. CINCLIDÆ, or DIPPERS", "Fam. III. MUSCICAPIDÆ, or FLYCATCHERS", "Fam. IV. TROGLODYTIDÆ, or WRENS", "Fam. V. MOTACILLIDÆ, or WAGTAILS", "Fam. VI. MNIOTILTIDÆ, or WOOD-SINGERS", etc. Many vintage books such as this are becoming increasingly scarce and expensive. We are republishing this volume now in an affordable, modern, high-quality edition complete with a specially commissioned new biography of the author.

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Page Count

246

Publisher

Read Books Ltd

Published Date

ISBN 10

1473346606

ISBN 13

9781473346604

Sustainable Technology Development

By: Paul Weaver,Leo Jansen,Geert van Grootveld,Egbert van Spiegel,Philip Vergragt

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Sustainable Technology Development

By: Paul Weaver,Leo Jansen,Geert van Grootveld,Egbert van Spiegel,Philip Vergragt

In the time it takes to read this sentence, about fifteen people will be added to the world's population. Read the sentence again, and there will be thirty. Tomorrow, each of these people will be demanding greater prosperity. Production and consumption are increasing fast but will have to grow even faster in the future to keep up with population growth and a world increasingly divided by inequality. How should we react to these trends? Certainly, many use growth figures to forecast disaster. But there is an alternative vision: one of a sustainable future, in which growth is seen not as a threat, but as the driving force behind innovation. This is the scenario worked out in the Netherlands by Sustainable Technology Development (STD), a five-year programme of research and "learning-by-doing" based on setting up new innovation networks and working with new methods to search for sustainable technological solutions. In order to make sustainability tangible, STD made a leap in time. What human needs will have to be satisfied fifty years from now? Taking a sustainable future vision as a starting point, STD demonstrated what steps we should take today for new technologies and systems to be in place in time. These results are now available for the first time in a comprehensive, specifically written English-language book, together with a description of the unique working method of STD and the results and key lessons from a set of the programme's illustrative case studies. This book serves as a manual for industry, governments and social leaders wanting to prepare themselves for a sustainable future. Sustainable Technology Development sets out the programme's underpinning philosophy and describes its approach, methods and findings. Delivering sustainability means finding ways to meet human needs using a fraction of the natural resources we use today. The world's richer nations would be wise to target at least ten-fold improvements by 2050 in the productivity with which conventional natural resources and environmental services are used. And they need to bring new, sustainable resources on-stream to augment the resource base and replace the use of unsustainable alternatives. Sustainable Technology Development marks a significant contribution to our understanding of innovation processes and how these might be influenced in favour of sustainable technology development. In principle, technology could play a pivotal role in sustainable development. Whether it does or not depends on whether innovators can be encouraged to make this an explicit goal, adopt long-term time-horizons and search for renewable technologies. Given the long lead-times involved, there is no time to waste in beginning the search. The STD programme has begun to make inroads into one of the most urgent of all needs concerning sustainable development: that for innovation in the innovation process itself.

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Page Count

322

Publisher

Routledge

Published Date

ISBN 10

1351283227

ISBN 13

9781351283229

Beekmantown, New York

Forest Frontier to Farm Community

By: Philip L. White

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Beekmantown, New York

Forest Frontier to Farm Community

By: Philip L. White

This volume reports in detail how a particular portion of the American wilderness developed into a settled farming community. To fully comprehend the history of the American people in the early national period, an understanding of this transformation from forest to community—and the pattern of life within such communities where the vast majority of the people live—is essential. Three major conclusions emerge from Philip L. White's study of Beekmantown, New York. First, the economic advantages of the frontier attracted a first generation of settlers relatively high in social and economic status, but the disappearance of frontier conditions brought a second generation of settlers appreciably lower in status. Second, White rejects the romantic notion that the frontier fostered equality and argues instead that the frontier's economic opportunities fostered inequality. Finally, in contrast to revisionist arguments, he affirms that in Beekmantown the Jacksonian period does indeed warrant characterization as the era of the "common man." This book represents a model in community history: the narrative is full of human interest; the scholarship is prodigious; the applications are universal.

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Page Count

399

Publisher

University of Texas Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1477303502

ISBN 13

9781477303504

Argentine Ornithology, Volume I (of II) - A descriptive catalogue of the birds of the Argentine Republic.

By: Philip Lutley Sclater,William Henry Hudson

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Argentine Ornithology, Volume I (of II) - A descriptive catalogue of the birds of the Argentine Republic.

By: Philip Lutley Sclater,William Henry Hudson

This is volume I of William Henry Hudson's "Argentine Ornithology". It is a comprehensive encyclopedia of the birds native to Argentina, with detailed descriptions, historical information, notes on natural history, and more. This volume will appeal to modern readers with an interest in ornithology, and it would make for a fantastic addition to collections of allied literature. William Henry Hudson (1841 - 1922) was an Anglo-Argentine naturalist, author, and ornithologist. He was one of the founding members of the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, and is best known for his novel "Green Mansions" (1904). Other notable works include "A Crystal Age" (1887) and "Far Away and Long Ago" (1918), which has since been adapted into a film. Contents include: "Fam. I. TURDIDÆ, or THRUSHES", "Fam. II. CINCLIDÆ, or DIPPERS", "Fam. III. MUSCICAPIDÆ, or FLYCATCHERS", "Fam. IV. TROGLODYTIDÆ, or WRENS", "Fam. V. MOTACILLIDÆ, or WAGTAILS", "Fam. VI. MNIOTILTIDÆ, or WOOD-SINGERS", etc. Many vintage books such as this are becoming increasingly scarce and expensive. We are republishing this volume now in an affordable, modern, high-quality edition complete with a specially commissioned new biography of the author.

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Page Count

218

Publisher

Read Books Ltd

Published Date

ISBN 10

1473346592

ISBN 13

9781473346598

Against Mechanism

Protecting Economics from Science

By: Philip Mirowski

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Against Mechanism

Protecting Economics from Science

By: Philip Mirowski

...the history of economic theory at its best.'-EASTERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL

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Page Count

263

Publisher

Rowman & Littlefield Publishers

Published Date

ISBN 10

0742569616

ISBN 13

9780742569614

Paper Route

Finding My Way to Precision Journalism

By: Philip Meyer

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Paper Route

Finding My Way to Precision Journalism

By: Philip Meyer

As author Philip Meyer sat in a college class listening to a professor lecture about systematic tools for measuring things like trust in government, a thought struck him: a journalist could do this! He thought about the newsroom conversations hed had about the possibility of reporting on some interesting social phenomena. The group always ended with a shrug and a lament that there was no way to measure itbut he began to wonder. It was an epiphany for Meyer, who went on to report on the 1967 racial riots in Detroit and write the groundbreaking book Precision Journalism. While others were arguing that reporters should not use scientific methods to make conclusions of their own, Meyer was using computers and statistical software to elevate the standards of traditional journalism. At age fifty, he switched gears and entered the world of academe, where he continues to stir the pot. In Paper Route, he recalls two interconnected careers and examines how journalism, quantitative methods, and original thinking led him to live the remarkable life that hes still enjoying.

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Page Count

364

Publisher

iUniverse

Published Date

ISBN 10

1462083102

ISBN 13

9781462083107

Mustang the Inspiration

The Plane That Turned the Tide of World War Two

By: Philip Kaplan

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Mustang the Inspiration

The Plane That Turned the Tide of World War Two

By: Philip Kaplan

If it looks right, it will probably fly righta tired old saying among airmen, but one that persists. Think if you will of the handful of aeroplanes that most people would probably agree are the best-looking examples of all. The list is short but distinguished and the proof is in the enthusiastic common view of most pilots who have flown themfor nearly all, it was love at first sight and first flight. For most that little list includes the Vickers-Supermarine Spitfire, the Douglas DC-3, the Hawker Hunter, the Lockheed Constellation, the Concord, and the North American Mustang. Of these, the Spitfire and Mustang stand out and remain extra special to the majority of pilots who have been privileged to fly them. One common thread exists among those who have experienced both of these fine machines; an opinion that seems to hold up even after a lifetime of flying the best the aviation design community has created. While the Spitfire may have a slight edge in light-touch handling, if I have to go to war in one type, Ill take theMustang every time.This comprehensive account of the Mustang aircraft charts the operational history of the craft and also relays a the personal stories and experiences of the men who flew the 'Cadillac of the skies' as it has been described. A vivid and enthralling history set to appeal to aviation enthusiasts looking for more than just a mere operational history of the Mustang's exploits.

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Page Count

232

Publisher

Casemate Publishers

Published Date

ISBN 10

1783830077

ISBN 13

9781783830077

Resolving the Climate Change Crisis

The Ecological Economics of Climate Change

By: Philip Lawn

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Resolving the Climate Change Crisis

The Ecological Economics of Climate Change

By: Philip Lawn

This book explains why the climate change crisis is a symptom of a much larger underlying problem – namely, humankind’s predilection with continuous GDP-growth. Given this starting point, the world’s high-income nations must begin the transition to a qualitatively-improving steady-state economy and low-income nations must follow suit at some stage over the next 20-40 years. Unless they do, a well-designed emissions protocol will be as useless as the paper it is written on. Adopting an ecological economic approach, this book sets out why we must abandon the goal of continuous growth; how we can do so in a way that improves human well-being; what constitutes a safe atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases; and what type of emissions protocol and emissions-trading framework is likely to achieve a desirable climate change outcome. Failure of the world’s leaders to achieve these goals will not only put future human well-being at risk, it will threaten freedom in the liberal-democratic tradition and international peace.

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Page Count

646

Publisher

Springer

Published Date

ISBN 10

9401775028

ISBN 13

9789401775021

The Ibis

Vol. I

By: Philip Lutley Sclater

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The Ibis

Vol. I

By: Philip Lutley Sclater

Reprint of the original, first published in 1859. The publishing house Anatiposi publishes historical books as reprints. Due to their age, these books may have missing pages or inferior quality. Our aim is to preserve these books and make them available to the public so that they do not get lost.

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Page Count

537

Publisher

BoD – Books on Demand

Published Date

ISBN 10

3382313170

ISBN 13

9783382313173

The Art of Speculation

By: Philip L. Carret

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The Art of Speculation

By: Philip L. Carret

The Art of Speculation is laden with insights and studies that are as fresh today as newly cut grass . . . a joy to read. The topics covered were timeless in 1931 . . . and written in 24-carat prose." -from the Foreword by Victor Niederhoffer A classic in every sense of the word, The Art of Speculation has been heralded by investors, both past and present, as a true standout in the field. Written by Philip Carret -a Wall Street legend long considered a leading thinker in basic value investing -this timeless work is as vital a part of finance literature today as it was when it first appeared almost seventy years ago. Acclaim for The Art of Speculation "Philip Carret has been practicing the art of investing longer than anyone. In the current frothy stock market environment it is helpful to read his insights into the Great Crash of 1929 to see if there are useful parallels. Beginning investors will find The Art of Speculation instructive and students of the market will learn much about what investing was like seven decades ago before computers, derivatives, junk bonds, discount brokers, and hedge funds. His Twelve Commandments for Speculators is good advice for us all." -Byron R. Wien, Managing Director/U.S. Investment Strategist Morgan Stanley & Co., Inc. "A genuine rarity: the intricacies of investing illuminated by clear writing and timeless insight. The chapters on how to read a balance sheet and income statement are classics. No investor should even consider dabbling in the frantic IPO market of today without having read them first." -Christopher M. Byron Esquire

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Page Count

392

Publisher

John Wiley & Sons

Published Date

ISBN 10

0471181889

ISBN 13

9780471181880

Book's by Philip Ayres

Writing on the Wall

Writing on the Wall

Beyond Dissent: Essays in Institutional Economics

Beyond Dissent: Essays in Institutional Economics

Argentine Ornithology, Volume II (of II) - A descriptive catalogue of the birds of the Argentine Republic.

Argentine Ornithology, Volume II (of II) - A descriptive catalogue of the birds of the Argentine Republic.

Sustainable Technology Development

Sustainable Technology Development

Beekmantown, New York

Beekmantown, New York

Argentine Ornithology, Volume I (of II) - A descriptive catalogue of the birds of the Argentine Republic.

Argentine Ornithology, Volume I (of II) - A descriptive catalogue of the birds of the Argentine Republic.

Against Mechanism

Against Mechanism

Paper Route

Paper Route

Mustang the Inspiration

Mustang the Inspiration

Resolving the Climate Change Crisis

Resolving the Climate Change Crisis

The Ibis

The Ibis

The Art of Speculation

The Art of Speculation

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