The world we live in today is more volatile than ever. The security of free nations is threatened by rogue states, the global economy is in flux, and the rapid advance of technology forces constant reevaluation of our society. With so many powerful forces at work and seemingly unpredictable events occurring, to many the future seems dark, and its possibilities frightening. Peter Schwartz disagrees. A world-renowned visionary in the field of scenario planning, Schwartz’s startling—and accurate— predictions have been employed by government agencies and major corporations for more than twenty-five years. He argues that the future is foreseeable, and that by examining the dynamics at work today we can predict the “inevitable surprises” of tomorrow. Timely and thought-provoking, Inevitable Surprises is a book that no one with an interest in business—or the future of our society—can afford to miss.
What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life—bottom-line numbers, for instance—but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories—scenarios—and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.
In Arendt's Judgment: Freedom, Responsibility, Citizenship, Jonathan Peter Schwartz claims that Arendt's theory of political judgment formed the core of her political thought, and that understanding it correctly makes it possible to grasp the systematic thread that runs through her diverse body of work.
What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life—bottom-line numbers, for instance—but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories—scenarios—and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.
Why is America Pursuing a Foreign Policy of "Speak Softly and Carry a Big Carrot"? America's foreign policy, Mr. Schwartz argues, is driven by the view that the pursuit of self-interest is morally tainted-that is, that if we wish to do what is right, we must sacrifice our interests for the sake of other nations. This is why we are so appeasingly apologetic when it comes to asserting our tight to live free from the threat of force. It is why we are so hesitant in implementing our moral obligation to eliminate all such threats by military means. It is why we are failing in our war against terrorism. In this uncompromising manifesto, the author calls for a radically different foreign policy-one based entirely on self-interest. Repudiating any dichotomy between the moral and the practical, he advocates a policy under which a nation's interests are measured by only one standard: the individual liberty of its citizens. The architects of such a foreign policy would reject any duty to sacrifice the wealth and the lives of Americans to the needs of other countries. They would disclaim any obligation to seek international approval before deciding to use force to safeguard America. Instead they would intransigently uphold our self-interest-not as a matter of amoral expediency, as advocated by the impractical pragmatists and their school of realpolitik, but rather as a moral principle, a principle that is in keeping with America's founding values.
Events like the collapse of a major energy company or a devastating terrorist attack seem to come from nowhere. Not only are they shocking and disturbing, it often appears that their prevention would have been impossible. Not so, argues Peter Schwartz in this fascinating book. Many 'surprises', he says, soon acquire an aura of inevitability once the underlying patterns of behaviour are examined. And although we cannot do anything about the past, we can try to do something about the future. What, then, is the next big surprise? How might it play out? INEVITABLE SURPRISES covers high-level, universal trends -- from business to international affairs, from biotechnology to climate change -- but presents them in the context of the particular and concrete choices that different people must make. It distinguishes those forces beyond our control from the future that we can influence and help design -- for the world around us, for our organisations, and for ourselves.
Crosscutting Social Circles describes a theory of groups' relations to each other, and tests the theory in the 125 largest metropolitan areas In the United States. The focus is on the Influence social structure exerts on intergroup relations. Blau and Schwartz show how role relations are influenced by how people are distributed among social positions. Examples are a community's racial composition, division of labor, ethnic heterogeneity, income Inequality, or the extent to which educational differences are related to income differences. Blau and Schwartz test their theory by considering its impact on such structural conditions as intermarriage, an important form of intergroup relations. The authors derive the main principles of previously formulated theories of intergroup relations and present them in simpler and clearer form. They empirically test the power of the theory by analyzing its ability to predict how social structure affects intermarriage in the largest American cities, where three-fifths of the American population live. They selected cities because population distribution of a small neighborhood might be affected by casual associations among neighbors; it is much more sociologically interesting if population distribution also affects mate selection in a city of millions. Unlike most theories that emphasize the implications of such cultural orientations as shared values and common norms, this volume focuses on the significance of various forms of inequality and heterogeneity. As one of the few books that supplies a large-scale empirical test of implications of a theory, Crosscutting Social Circles serves as a model. The new introduction by Peter Blau reviews the origins and impact of the book. It will be of immense value to sociologists, psychologists, and group relations specialists.
Crosscutting Social Circles describes a theory of groups' relations to each other, and tests the theory in the 125 largest metropolitan areas In the United States. The focus is on the Influence social structure exerts on intergroup relations. Blau and Schwartz show how role relations are influenced by how people are distributed among social positions. Examples are a community's racial composition, division of labor, ethnic heterogeneity, income Inequality, or the extent to which educational differences are related to income differences. Blau and Schwartz test their theory by considering its impact on such structural conditions as intermarriage, an important form of intergroup relations.The authors derive the main principles of previously formulated theories of intergroup relations and present them in simpler and clearer form. They empirically test the power of the theory by analyzing its ability to predict how social structure affects intermarriage in the largest American cities, where three-fifths of the American population live. They selected cities because population distribution of a small neighborhood might be affected by casual associations among neighbors; it is much more sociologically interesting if population distribution also affects mate selection in a city of millions.Unlike most theories that emphasize the implications of such cultural orientations as shared values and common norms, this volume focuses on the significance of various forms of inequality and heterogeneity. As one of the few books that supplies a large-scale empirical test of implications of a theory, Crosscutting Social Circles serves as a model. The new introduction by Peter Blau reviews the origins and impact of the book. It will be of immense value to sociologists, psychologists, and group relations specialists.
Applying to the secular activity of baseball a form of inquiry usually reserved for the study of religion, Sexton explores common ground between the game and what we all recognize as religion: sacred places and time, faith and doubt, blessings and curses, and more.
As we stand at the threshold of the new millennium, the future seems both exhilarating and terrifying. Does it hold great promise of freedom and opportunity or the threat of conflict and inequality? In the tradition of such influential and defining books as Future Shock and Megatrends , Peter Schwartz, Peter Leyden, and Joel Hyatt argue in The Long Boom that we are, in fact, on the verge of a global economic expansion on a scale never before experienced—and that the choices we make as informed individuals, institutions, communities, and nations today will determine whether that vision is realized. Analyzing economic, political, technological and socio-cultural trends that began to converge in the early 1980s, the authors offer a compelling—and highly plausible—vision of how the next twenty years will unfold. By 2020, we can expect to experience tremendous advances in now-emerging technologies; widespread adoption of alternative energy sources; increased productivity; and, perhaps most important, the creation of a truly global economy. Going beyond a description of this scenario, the authors identify potential bumps in the road and urge educators, policy makers, business leaders, social activists, and individuals in all types of organizations to participate in the “politics of the long boom,” the realm where people come together to pool resources and solve common problems. Grand in scope but intensely personal in scale, The Long Boom shows us all how to take an active role in creating a vibrant, diverse, constantly learning, and sustainable global society.
Problem-based learning (PBL) is becoming widely used in higher education. Popular in the medical sciences, PBL is now finding applications beyond - in engineering, sciences and architecture - and is widely applicable in many fields. It is a powerful teaching technique that appeals to students and educators alike. This book will be of great value to those who want to improve their use of PBL and for those who want to learn more and implement it. It provides compelling accounts of experiences with PBL from eight countries including the UK, US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, and gives readers the opportunity to understand PBL and to develop strategies for their own curriculum, in any subject and at many levels.
This study is principally concerned with the ethical dimensions of identity management technology - electronic surveillance, the mining of personal data, and profiling - in the context of transnational crime and global terrorism. The ethical challenge at the heart of this study is to establish an acceptable and sustainable equilibrium between two central moral values in contemporary liberal democracies, namely, security and privacy. Both values are essential to individual liberty, but they come into conflict in times when civil order is threatened, as has been the case from late in the twentieth century, with the advent of global terrorism and trans-national crime. We seek to articulate legally sustainable, politically possible, and technologically feasible, global ethical standards for identity management technology and policies in liberal democracies in the contemporary global security context. Although the standards in question are to be understood as global ethical standards potentially to be adopted not only by the United States, but also by the European Union, India, Australasia, and other contemporary liberal democratic states, we take as our primary focus the tensions that have arisen between the United States and the European Union.
This book is a detailed treatment of the Russian legal system written especially for English-speaking law students and lawyers. While it is designed primarily as a casebook, extended discussions of the law, numerous citations to original Russian sources, and detailed suggestions for finding these sources on the Internet also make it useful as a reference for scholars specializing in Russian studies and for lawyers who know Russian but not Russian law. The authors have decades of experience following the Russian legal system, with one concentrating on human rights, court procedure, and criminal law and procedure, the other on civil, commercial, and tax law. Chapters cover key aspects of the Russian legal system, including sources of law, the judicial system, the legal profession, constitutional law, individual rights, civil and commercial law, civil procedure, private international law, foreign investment law, criminal procedure, administrative law, and tax law. The book covers major changes in Russian law since the previous edition was published, including more reliance on judicial precedent, increasing the independence of criminal investigators from prosecutors, dealing with abuse of the legal system by corrupt officials to steal businesses from their rightful owners, and closing loopholes in the tax system. The new edition also chronicles the continuing struggle of the European Court of Human Rights and activist Russian lawyers to push Russian law toward international standards.
This book discusses recent trends in outcomes assessment, examines how state governments are reshaping the national discussion with higher education, and explains how libraries must respond to these changes. Higher Education Outcomes Assessment for the Twenty-first Century focuses on recent developments in outcomes assessment, especially from the perspectives of the federal government and state governments, as well as foundations concerned about the state of higher education. The authors identify the significant changes that these stakeholders call for—information that academic librarians and anyone following outcomes assessment need to be aware of—and interpret the discussions to identify implications for libraries. Building upon the foundation of knowledge presented in the previous two Libraries Unlimited Outcomes Assessment in Higher Education titles, this book provides readers with up-to-date coverage of topics such as the emerging metrics used to define student and institutional success; the increased importance of accountability and the need to compare and assess the performance of programs and institutions rather than individual courses; and the shift in prioritizing student outcomes over student learning outcomes. The authors also spotlight the critical need for libraries to fit their role within the national discussion and suggest ways in which library managers and directors can play a role in redirecting the discussion to their benefit.
How can you bring out MySQL’s full power? With High Performance MySQL, you’ll learn advanced techniques for everything from designing schemas, indexes, and queries to tuning your MySQL server, operating system, and hardware to their fullest potential. This guide also teaches you safe and practical ways to scale applications through replication, load balancing, high availability, and failover. Updated to reflect recent advances in MySQL and InnoDB performance, features, and tools, this third edition not only offers specific examples of how MySQL works, it also teaches you why this system works as it does, with illustrative stories and case studies that demonstrate MySQL’s principles in action. With this book, you’ll learn how to think in MySQL. Learn the effects of new features in MySQL 5.5, including stored procedures, partitioned databases, triggers, and views Implement improvements in replication, high availability, and clustering Achieve high performance when running MySQL in the cloud Optimize advanced querying features, such as full-text searches Take advantage of modern multi-core CPUs and solid-state disks Explore backup and recovery strategies—including new tools for hot online backups
The long QT syndrome has become the focus of considerable scientific attention in recent years because of the discovery of several genes responsible for its development. These discoveries have demonstrated the genetic heterogeneity of the syndrome and have given both the clinician and researcher the opportunity to relate phenotypic variants to different genotypes responsible for distinctly different ion channel abnormalities. These analyses - which are comprehensively reviewed and explored here for the first time - are now beginning to suggest treatment strategies specific to each genotype. The full power of such precise diagnosis promises highly targeted and very successful therapy. In the author's own words, there is "the progressive realization that behind the surface of an infrequent disease may lie the key to understanding the mechanisms by which modulation of autonomic function may enhance or prevent the occurrence of life-threatening arrhythmias." The aim of the Clinical Approaches to Tachyarryhthmias series is to update the physician, cardiologist, and all those responsible for the the care of patients with cardiac arrhythmias. In this volume, one of the foremost research pioneers in the field provides a clear and comprehensively considered account of this syndrome's history, significance, and exciting current status. Readers will gain a better understanding of why the long QT syndrome has been the focus for numerous theories of arrhythmogenesis, why it has been the test bed for many antiarrhythmic treatments, and why it remains the paradigm for the diagnosis and management of cardiac arrhythmias.
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