Peichu Xie's Books

The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

By: Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Qianying Chen,Claudio Raddatz,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie

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The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

By: Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Qianying Chen,Claudio Raddatz,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie

We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

151351377X

ISBN 13

9781513513775

The Non-U.S. Bank Demand for U.S. Dollar Assets

By: Mr.Tobias Adrian,Peichu Xie

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The Non-U.S. Bank Demand for U.S. Dollar Assets

By: Mr.Tobias Adrian,Peichu Xie

The USD asset share of non-U.S. banks captures the demand for dollars by these investors. An instrumental variable strategy identifies a causal link from the USD asset share to the USD exchange rate. Cross-sectional asset pricing tests show that the USD asset share is a highly significant pricing factor for carry trade strategies. The USD asset share forecasts the dollar with economically large magnitude, high statistical significance, and large explanatory power, both in sample and out of sample, pointing towards time varying risk premia. It takes 2-5 years for exchange rate risk premia to normalize in response to demand shocks.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513547739

ISBN 13

9781513547732

The Riskiness of Credit Origins and Downside Risks to Economic Activity

By: Claudio Raddatz,Dulani Seneviratne,Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie,Yizhi Xu

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The Riskiness of Credit Origins and Downside Risks to Economic Activity

By: Claudio Raddatz,Dulani Seneviratne,Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie,Yizhi Xu

We construct a country-level indicator capturing the extent to which aggregate bank credit growth originates from banks with a relatively riskier profile, which we label the Riskiness of Credit Origins (RCO). Using bank-level data from 42 countries over more than two decades, we document that RCO variations over time are a feature of the credit cycle. RCO also robustly predicts downside risks to GDP growth even after controlling for aggregate bank credit growth and financial conditions, among other determinants. RCO’s explanatory power comes from its relationship with asset quality, investor and banking sector sentiment, as well as future banking sector resilience. Our findings underscore the importance of bank heterogeneity for theories of the credit cycle and financial stability policy.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400270765

Global Banks’ Dollar Funding: A Source of Financial Vulnerability

By: Mr.Adolfo Barajas,Andrea Deghi,Claudio Raddatz,MissDulani Seneviratne,Peichu Xie,Yizhi Xu

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Global Banks’ Dollar Funding: A Source of Financial Vulnerability

By: Mr.Adolfo Barajas,Andrea Deghi,Claudio Raddatz,MissDulani Seneviratne,Peichu Xie,Yizhi Xu

Leading up to the global financial crisis, US dollar activity by global banks headquartered outside the United States played a crucial role in transmitting shocks originating in funding markets. Although post-crisis regulation has improved banking systems’ resilience, US dollar funding remains a global vulnerability, as evidenced by strains that reemerged in March 2020 in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis. We show that shocks to US dollar funding costs lead to financial stress in the home economies of these global non-US banks, and to spillovers to borrowers, especially emerging economies. US dollar funding vulnerability amplifies these negative effects, while some policy-related factors act as mitigators, such as swap line arrangements between central banks and international reserve holdings. Thus, these vulnerabilities should be monitored and, to the extent possible, controlled.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513549146

ISBN 13

9781513549149

Leakages from Macroprudential Regulations: The Case of Household-Specific Tools and Corporate Credit

By: International Monetary Fund

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Leakages from Macroprudential Regulations: The Case of Household-Specific Tools and Corporate Credit

By: International Monetary Fund

Sector-specific macroprudential regulations increase the riskiness of credit to other sectors. Using firm-level data, this paper computed the measures of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation for 29 advanced and emerging economies. Consistently across these measures, the paper finds that during credit expansions, an unexpected tightening of household-specific macroprudential tools is followed by a rise in riskier corporate lending. Quantitatively, such unexpected tightening during a period of rapid credit growth increases the riskiness of corporate credit by around 10 percent of the historical standard deviation. This result supports early policy interventions when credit vulnerabilities are still low, since sectoral leakages will be less important at this stage. Further evidence from bank lending standards surveys suggests that the leakage effects are stronger for larger firms compared to SMEs, consistent with recent evidence on the use of personal real estate as loan collateral by small firms.

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