The old discussion of 'Market or State' is obsolete. There will always have to be a mix of market and state. The only relevant question is what that mix should look like. How far do we have to let the market go its own way in order to create as much welfare as possible for everyone? What is the responsibility of the government in creating welfare? These are difficult questions. But they are also interesting questions and Paul De Grauwe analyses them in this book. The desired mix of market and state is anything but easy to bring about. It is a difficult and sometimes destructive process that is constantly in motion. There are periods in history in which the market gains in importance. During other periods the opposite occurs and government is more dominant. The turning points in this pendulum swing typically seem to coincide with disruptive events that test the limits of market and state. Why we experience this dynamic is an important theme in the book. Will the market, which today is afforded a greater and greater role due to globalization, run up against its limits? Or do the financial crisis and growing income inequality show that we have already reached those limits? Do we have to brace ourselves for a rejection of the capitalist system? Are we returning to an economy in which the government is running the show?
The twelfth edition of Economics of Monetary Union provides a concise analysis of the theories and policies relating to monetary union. The author addresses current issues surrounding the Eurozone, including; a critical discussion of the costs and benefits of possible exits by its member countries, an analysis of the role of the ECB as new single supervisor and detail on the sovereign debt crisis. In Part One the author examines the implications of adopting a common currency, assessing the benefit to each country from being a member of the Eurozone, whilst also questioning whether other parts of the world would gain from monetary unification. Part Two of the book looks at the problems of running a monetary union by analysing Europe's experience and the issues faced by the European Central Bank. The book is accompanied by online resources that feature: For students: - Links to data sources - Essay questions - Web links - Paul De Grauwe on Twitter For Lecturers: - PowerPoint slides - Instructor's manual
In mainstream economics, and particularly in New Keynesian macroeconomics, the booms and busts that characterize capitalism arise because of large external shocks. The combination of these shocks and the slow adjustments of wages and prices by rational agents leads to cyclical movements. In this book, Paul De Grauwe argues for a different macroeconomics model--one that works with an internal explanation of the business cycle and factors in agents' limited cognitive abilities. By creating a behavioral model that is not dependent on the prevailing concept of rationality, De Grauwe is better able to explain the fluctuations of economic activity that are an endemic feature of market economies. This new approach illustrates a richer macroeconomic dynamic that provides for a better understanding of fluctuations in output and inflation. De Grauwe shows that the behavioral model is driven by self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism, or animal spirits. Booms and busts in economic activity are therefore natural outcomes of a behavioral model. The author uses this to analyze central issues in monetary policies, such as output stabilization, before extending his investigation into asset markets and more sophisticated forecasting rules. He also examines how well the theoretical predictions of the behavioral model perform when confronted with empirical data. Develops a behavioral macroeconomic model that assumes agents have limited cognitive abilities Shows how booms and busts are characteristic of market economies Explores the larger role of the central bank in the behavioral model Examines the destabilizing aspects of asset markets
Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies brings together research and work done by world-class economist Paul De Grauwe over the past two decades. Drawing inspiration from behavioural finance literature, De Grauwe covers topics such as exchange rate economics, monetary integration (with particular attention on the Eurozone), and international macroeconomics.His work is categorised across three parts. The first part develops new theoretical and empirical approaches to exchange rate modelling. The second part features a collection of papers on the theory and empirical analysis of monetary unions. The final part contains criticism of mainstream macroeconomic models as well as proposed alternative modelling approaches.
The twelfth edition of Economics of Monetary Union provides a concise analysis of the theories and policies relating to monetary union. The author addresses current issues surrounding the Eurozone, including; a critical discussion of the costs and benefits of possible exits by its member countries, an analysis of the role of the ECB as new single supervisor and detail on the sovereign debt crisis. In Part One the author examines the implications of adopting a common currency, assessing the benefit to each country from being a member of the Eurozone, whilst also questioning whether other parts of the world would gain from monetary unification. Part Two of the book looks at the problems of running a monetary union by analysing Europe's experience and the issues faced by the European Central Bank. The book is accompanied by online resources that feature: For students: - Links to data sources - Essay questions - Web links - Paul De Grauwe on Twitter For Lecturers: - PowerPoint slides - Instructor's manual
Modern macroeconomics has been based on the paradigm of the rational individual capable of understanding the complexity of the world. This has created a very shallow theory of the business cycle in which nothing happens in the macroeconomy unless shocks occur from outside. Behavioural Macroeconomics: Theory and Policy uses a different paradigm. It assumes that individual agents experience cognitive limitations preventing them from having rational expectations. Instead these individuals use simple rules of behaviour. Behavioural Macroeconomics introduces rationality by allowing individuals to learn from their mistakes and to switch to the rules that perform better. It introduces the idea of endogenously generated "animals spirits" that drive the business cycle and are in turn influenced by it, and applies this model to shed new light on a number of important issues. It analyses the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy while maintaining debt sustainability; expands the model to include a banking sector and show how banks amplify the booms and busts; and explains how animal spirits help to synchronize the business cycles across countries. The model set out in Behavioural Macroeconomics leads to very different policy implications from the mainstream macroeconomic model. It shows how policymakers have a responsibility to stabilize an otherwise unstable system.
The book covers problems relating to international macroeconomics and international finance. The first part develops new approaches to exchange rate modeling. The second part is a collection of papers on the theory and empirical analysis of monetary unions. The third part contains criticism of the mainstream macroeconomic models and proposes alternative modeling approaches.
6.2 Introducing Asset Prices in the Behavioral Model -- 6.3 Simulating the Model -- 6.4 Should the Central Bank Care about Stock Prices? -- 6.5 Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability -- 6.6 The Trade-off between Output and Inflation Variability -- 6.7 Conclusion -- 7 Extensions of the Basic Model -- 7.1 Fundamentalists Are Biased -- 7.2 Shocks and Trade-offs -- 7.3 Further Extensions of the Basic Model -- 7.4 Conclusion -- 8 Empirical Issues -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 The Correlation of Output Movements and Animal Spirits -- 8.3 Model Predictions: Higher Moments -- 8.4 Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks -- 8.5 Conclusion -- References -- Index
The old discussion of 'Market or State' is obsolete. There will always have to be a mix of market and state. The only relevant question is what that mix should look like. How far do we have to let the market go its own way in order to create as much welfare as possible for everyone? What is the responsibility of the government in creating welfare? These are difficult questions. But they are also interesting questions and Paul De Grauwe analyses them in this book. The desired mix of market and state is anything but easy to bring about. It is a difficult and sometimes destructive process that is constantly in motion. There are periods in history in which the market gains in importance. During other periods the opposite occurs and government is more dominant. The turning points in this pendulum swing typically seem to coincide with disruptive events that test the limits of market and state. Why we experience this dynamic is an important theme in the book. Will the market, which today is afforded a greater and greater role due to globalization, run up against its limits? Or do the financial crisis and growing income inequality show that we have already reached those limits? Do we have to brace ourselves for a rejection of the capitalist system? Are we returning to an economy in which the government is running the show?
Pessimism has been rampant in many EU-countries over the last decade, largely fed by lagging productivity growth in the EU since the late 1990s and a perception that the US has a superior economic model. This perception has led to the view that the only way to restore higher levels of productivity growth is by introducing deep structural reforms in the EU, making goods and labour markets more flexible. This paper presents the argument that such pessimism is excessive: a significant part of the productivity growth differential between the US and the EU is cyclical, and is already turning around. In addition, there are areas in which the EU is structurally better prepared than the US to face the challenges of globalisation. The forthcoming mid-term review of the budget should be used to achieve political agreement on breaking the status quo bias by introducing 'sunset' clauses, which stipulate that major spending programmes will be discontinued after a certain period of time unless their usefulness can be ascertained and a new agreement reached allowing their continuation. Movement in the right direction can thus start immediately, even within the present legal framework, especially if Parliament uses its influence to push for a better allocation of expenditure.
The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. This paper analyses this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. It analyses how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade-off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.
Monetary Policy in Low Financial Development Countries provides a broad coverage of the monetary policy issues faced by developing countries with low financial depth. These low and lower middle income countries are characterized by the predominance of bank finance, shallow financial markets, low financial inclusion, weak integration with world capital markets, and a high degree of informality in economic activity. Monetary policy acquires special twists, making it different in many aspects from the policies followed in advanced and emerging market economies. This book covers the main facets of monetary policy making, using an approach that combines discussions of theoretical arguments, of results from empirical studies and of relevant policy experiences. It presents the monetary policy instruments that central banks rely on in these countries. It assesses the specificities of their monetary transmission mechanism, i.e. the way central banks' actions affect output and prices. It evaluates the advantages, drawbacks, and challenges of the different nominal anchors they may choose from: exchange rate targeting, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting. This discussion is set against the background of the three main goals pursued by central banks: price, output, and financial stability. Particular attention is devoted to the issue of the credibility of central banks and to the trade-offs they face when external shocks, to which these countries are very vulnerable, lead to conflicts among the three goals they pursue. The authors also cover more specific topics, such as the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, the challenges raised by dollarization, the implications of informal labour markets and of microfinance institutions for monetary policy-making, as well as the role of models for forecasting and policy evaluation by central banks.
This book provides an alternative view of the workings of foreign exchange markets. The authors' modeling approach is based on the idea that agents use simple forecasting rules and switch to those rules that have been shown to be the most profitable in the past. This selection mechanism is based on trial and error and is probably the best possible strategy in an uncertain world, the authors contend. It creates a rich dynamic in the foreign exchange markets and can generate bubbles and crashes. Sensitivity to initial conditions is a pervasive force in De Grauwe and Grimaldi's model. It explains why large exchange-rate changes and volatility clustering occur. It also has important implications for understanding how the news affects the exchange rate. De Grauwe and Grimaldi conclude that news in fundamentals has an unpredictable effect on the exchange rate. Sometimes, they maintain, it alters the exchange rate considerably; at other times it has no effectwhatsoever. The authors also use their model to analyze the effects of official interventions in the foreign exchange market. They show that simple intervention rules of the "leaning-against-the-wind" variety can be effective in eliminating bubbles and crashes in the exchange rate. They further demonstrate how, quite paradoxically, by intervening in the foreign exchange market the central bank makes the market look more efficient. Clear and comprehensive, The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework is a must-have for analysts in foreign exchange markets as well as students of international finance and economics.
The more advanced Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) face an evolving set of considerations in choosing their exchange rate policies. On the one hand, capital mobility is increasing, and this imposes additional constraints on fixed exchange rate regimes, while trend real appreciation makes the combination of low inflation and exchange rate stability problematic. On the other hand, the objectives of EU and eventual EMU membership make attractive a peg to the euro at some stage in the transition. The paper discusses these conflicting considerations, and considers the feasibility of an alternative monetary framework, inflation targeting.
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