This book is able to explain and analyze what has eluded both scholars and thought leaders in business and the media - how and why populism has grabbed center stage. Highly recommendable." -David B. Audretsch, Indiana University Bloomington, USA "Welfens provides valuable insight into US politics and describes the strategic options for Europe going forward." -Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley, USA "With great skill Welfens traces the implications of US populism for the global economic system." - Jeffrey D. Sachs, Columbia University, USA "This critique of Trump ́s fiscal and international trade policies and their weak intellectual basis deserves the attention of US and European readers alike" -Richard H. Tilly, University of Münster, Germany What lies behind the Trump victory of 2016 and the US' new raft of economic policies? Is a populist presidency in the United States likely to be a temporary phenomenon or a structural long-term challenge? In an era of declining multilateralism, what can the US still stand to learn from Europe, where several countries have effective lifetime economic welfare equal to that of the US - and what can the EU learn from the US in return? Furthermore, what international economic dynamics can be expected from the Sino-US trade conflict and can globalization be maintained? In this timely volume, Paul Welfens provides a rare, clear-sighted and scholarly analysis of the global problems created by Trump's protectionism and economic policy. He leverages his understanding of these problems to make concrete policy suggestions that could help prevent the world economy from falling back into a variant of the Great Powers regime of the late nineteenth century.
Socialist economies in Eastern Europe have collapsed and em- barked upon market-oriented reforms. The causes of the demise of centrally planned economies are analyzed and the basic challenges of systemic tranformation discussed. Negative income and wealth effects as well as distribution issues make adjustment extremely difficult. The fundamental roles of privatization and foreign investment are adressed. Foreign economic liberalization is considered to be of centralimportance for a growth-oriented adjustment path in a stage of conflict-prone policy and options. Politico-economic aspects of the new European developments in addition to North-South issues are analyzed. Difficult choices await decison-makers in economic policy and the business community in Eastern Europe and in leading market economies.
Economic progress in the digital knowledge society will be characterized by enormous structural change and the growth of digital services. This book focuses on the role of information and communication technologies for economic integration, networking and growth. It highlights technological and regulatory dynamics with respect to EU countries and the US and presents new policy conclusions at both the national and international levels, including welfare analysis.
High unemployment rates in the period of an internationalization of economies and an intensified technological competition are the main problems that exist in most EU countries. Taking stock of unemployment patterns, technological trends and employment opportunities in the EU and the US is crucial for the reform debate in Europe. In continental Europe, major problems are an insufficient creation of new firms in innovative technology fields, inadequate labor market developments and inconsistent R&D policies. Founded on new data evaluations, the book presents an innovative analysis of these topics and shows opportunities for reforms.
In the new global economy, more countries have opened up to international competition and rapid capital flows. However, in the triad the process of globalization is rather asymmetric. With a rising role of multinational companies there are favorable prospects for higher global growth and economic catching-up, respectively. Theoretical analysis suggests key ingredients of sustained growth, but there is also a new concept of a long-term equilibrium income gap in which convergence is rather unlikely. The analysis also picks up European and US labor market issues in the context of economic globalization and raises the question of which EU policies in the field of labor market reform and of innovation policies are adequate.
Europe's economic and political landscape is changing dramatically. The demise of the socialist CMEA and the USSR has allowed eastern European economies to open up and caused Russia/the CIS to engage in a series of difficult reforms which have been supported by the G-7 and the International Monetary Fund plus the World Bank on the one hand, and, on the other hand, by the EU and the EBRD. While some of the (early) Visegrad countries apparently were rather successful in their transition attempt, systemic transition approaches in other countries - Romania and Bulgaria - and, above all, in Russia largely were a failure. Economic hardship, social unrest, political radicalization and the international spreading of criminal activities can be identified as problems from the failure of Russia's first transition attempt. This book deals - from an international perspective - with the postsocialist countries in Europe, i. e. there is a focus on eastern enlargement and on Russia on the one hand, on the other hand the topic is which international influences and effects will emerge from EU enlargement and the Russian transition. While chapter A exclusively deals with major problems of eastern enlargement and the policy options for dealing with this difficult problem, chapter B is devoted to the Russian transformation crisis. There the analysis has a focus on Russia in its own right but also on the potential negative spillovers of a Russian transformation disaster which could occur in the late 1990s.
Economic globalization has intensified since the 1980s and created faster channels of international interdependence and an accelerating technology race. In this new asymmetric world economy the EU is facing a dynamic and flexible US system which takes advantage of the global quest for foreign direct investment. Innovation policies in the EU - in particular in Germany - are found to be rather inadequate. There are also new theoretical challenges where a "structural macro model" and a Schumpetrian model of innovation and full employment are presented as new approaches. Besides theoretical challenges the increasing global dynamics raise new problems of international policy coordination which could lead to unsustainable economic globalization.
This book analyzes how the EU referendum in the United Kingdom came to pass and what the foreseeable consequences are for the UK, Europe, US and world economy. The Brexit decision represents a momentous event for Europe, which weakens the EU and shifts the global balance of power. Welfens argues the EU has lost its appeal and is not in keeping with the twenty-first century, which is being shaped by Asia and digital innovations. The subject of immigration from EU countries played a key role in the Brexit decision, with an anti-EU campaign that was profoundly biased. The estimated impact of the referendum was deeply distorted by the broadly inadequate information produced by the Cameron government, which omitted the expected 10 percent loss in income caused by leaving the EU. With this this information, there could have been a clear pro-EU majority. In the absence of a second referendum, one cannot know what the British electorate really wants. Both the Brexit decision and new President of the United States Donald Trump's approach to European disintegration dynamics also raise serious questions about the future of transatlantic relations.
The creation of the European Central Bank and the Euro have brought new challenges to EU integration and economic policy. This book looks into issues of monetary and factor market policies. The analysis presents new theoretical and empirical research on the current decline of the Euro. Issues regarding exchange rate policies and international economic relations are also addressed.
This book takes a new look at the golden age in neoclassical growth theory and explores in detail sustainability and optimum growth in China, the US and Europe. Innovation, foreign direct investment, trade and growth dynamics are key elements in modern economies – including perspectives on green growth and aspects of the knowledge production function in the context of multinational companies. As such the book considers the role of foreign direct investment in a modified growth model and discusses innovation in an enhanced Mundell-Fleming macro model. Moreover, for the first time it directly links a knowledge production function to the macro production function in a broader context, including real money balances in the production function. It shows – also with empirical relevance – that FDI inward stocks relative to the GDP of host countries, the number of researchers and per capita income are relevant drivers of new knowledge and the stock of knowledge, respectively. This new Schumpeterian theoretical approach lends itself to important policy conclusions for both OECD members and newly industrialized countries.
This book is able to explain and analyze what has eluded both scholars and thought leaders in business and the media - how and why populism has grabbed center stage. Highly recommendable." -David B. Audretsch, Indiana University Bloomington, USA "Welfens provides valuable insight into US politics and describes the strategic options for Europe going forward." -Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley, USA "With great skill Welfens traces the implications of US populism for the global economic system." - Jeffrey D. Sachs, Columbia University, USA "This critique of Trump ́s fiscal and international trade policies and their weak intellectual basis deserves the attention of US and European readers alike" -Richard H. Tilly, University of Münster, Germany What lies behind the Trump victory of 2016 and the US' new raft of economic policies? Is a populist presidency in the United States likely to be a temporary phenomenon or a structural long-term challenge? In an era of declining multilateralism, what can the US still stand to learn from Europe, where several countries have effective lifetime economic welfare equal to that of the US - and what can the EU learn from the US in return? Furthermore, what international economic dynamics can be expected from the Sino-US trade conflict and can globalization be maintained? In this timely volume, Paul Welfens provides a rare, clear-sighted and scholarly analysis of the global problems created by Trump's protectionism and economic policy. He leverages his understanding of these problems to make concrete policy suggestions that could help prevent the world economy from falling back into a variant of the Great Powers regime of the late nineteenth century.
Deregulation, privatization and internationalization of the telecommunications industry has brought about enormous changes within both the European and world economy. The dynamics of the Internet and the recent wave of innovations in the telecommunications and computer industry have given rise to new opportunities for entrepreneurship, employment and growth. No doubt, the dynamics and imperfections of today`s information markets raise crucial challenges for Western Europe. The changing patterns of innovation in the digital economy have forced governments to consider new strategies to promote innovation, network effects and growth. In response to these developments this text presents new approaches to macroeconomic modelling, growth theory and trade analysis. Still further, the deregulation policies of OECD-countries are analyzed. An indispensible text for academics and professionals who want to deepen their knowledge of how the New Economy revolution continues to change the economy.
The complex challenge of economic recovery and reconstruction in the Balkans is looked at in this book. The Balkan Stability Pact stands for a networked approach of international organizations to deal with these problems. This analysis critically looks into strategies, actors, and preliminary results. There are shortcomings and inconsistencies and there is some potential for transatlantic conflicts over the issue of burden sharing. There is also a risk of EU imperial overstretch facing eastern and south-eastern EU enlargement.
This book considers climate change from an economic and international policy perspective. It argues that an emissions trading systems (ETS) should first be adopted in all G20 countries with those national ETS then integrated into a global ETS. The topic of global warming is at the forefront of international discussions, especially given recent environmental policy changes in the US under Presidents Trump and Biden and the emergence of the Fridays For Future movement. Combatting climate change does not necessitate a trade-off between economic growth and climate policy provided that the latter is consistently linked to new economic policy. Policymakers should support innovation, effective redistribution policies and modern mobility concepts. Moreover, there are crucial links between financial market dynamics and price dynamics in ETS. If measures discussed here are coordinated effectively in the EU/G20, and at the global level, then climate neutrality could be achieved.
Modern macroeconomics suffers from an unclear link between short-term Keynesian analysis and long-term growth modelling. This book presents a new link between monetary analysis and growth modelling in open economies. Structural change, innovations and growth are considered from a new perspective. With respect to economic policy - in particular innovation policy - the analysis implies major changes, concerning both EU countries and other leading OECD economies.
This book presents a cutting-edge analysis of the economic effects and challenges of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with a special focus on EU sanctions on Russian energy and Ukraine’s political relationship with the European Union in a global context. Welfens outlines key macroeconomic perspectives on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting in particular how sanctions posed by the international community will have a wider economic impact than what has so far been envisaged. The book discusses the effects of Russian gas supply boycotts against Western countries as well as global effects of an EU energy import boycott on Russia, especially for China and the Asian continent. An innovative proposal to cut electricity prices is presented. It also explores the challenges to relations between the EU, China and Russia caused by the invasion, the effects of the unfolding refugee crisis (within a post-Brexit EU), military and humanitarian aid pledges to Ukraine, and the risks of reduced multilateralism within the world economy as a direct result of the war. The book also analyses the risks and benefits of potential enlargement of the EU to integrate Ukraine as a member state. The topics covered by the book are all set within a long-run view of diplomatic and economic relations between the West, Russia and Ukraine. The factors analysed here provide a new, broader picture of the international effects of the conflict, as well as its potential implications for policy design as we enter a new global order marked by the Russo-Ukrainian war. The book will be of interest to researchers and policy-makers working in international economics, new political economy, European politics and integration, and macroeconomics more broadly.
This study develops a new indicator for national and global sustainability. The main components of the EIIW-vita indicator are: the share of renewable energy, the genuine savings rate and the relative "green export" position of the respective countries; it is in line with OECD requirements on composite indicators. As green exports are related to technological progress and environmental-friendly products, there is also a Schumpeterian perspective of this indicator. An extended version furthermore looks at water productivity. The analysis highlights the BRIICS countries as well as the US, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, the UK and Japan. Moreover the special challenges and dynamics of ASEAN countries and Asia are discussed. The book derives key implications for economic and environmental policy and shows that the new global sustainability indicator is not only relevant for green progress, but also useful as a signal for international investors. The construction of the EIIW-vita global sustainability indicator is such that investors, citizens and governments can easily interpret the results. Correlation analysis of the new sustainability indicator with the human development index indicates complementarity, so that a new hybrid superindicator can be constructed. Sustainability rhetoric dominates environmental policy. This fresh assessment of key "pillars" of sustainable economic performance and growth is a valuable contribution to greening the economy, the leitmotiv of the latest Rio Earth Summit. The book places the discussion of sustainability on solid data. The rather surprising results of its new sustainability index should make policy makers rethink their environmental and economic strategies. Prof. Dr. Peter Bartelmus Columbia University, New York Many people put the economy first when sustainability concerns are raised, while environmental indicators are often developed without a sense of socio-economic performance. This important new book bridges the gap. It sheds light on crucial indicators such as renewable energies, exporting green goods and services, genuine savings, and water productivity. And it helps to observe the impressive changes at a global scale and in countries such as China. A must read for all experts interested in those issues. Prof. Dr. Raimund Bleischwitz University College London
Economic globalization is a complex phenomenon where the links between social security expenditures and globalization are not well understood so far. This study summarizes new key findings and highlights new theoretical insights in the field of social security systems, labor standards, taxation and economic globalization. Moreover, new thoughts on the links between social security systems and migration as well as between free trade areas and social market economy development are presented. The book analyzes the role of a changing age dependency using a Branson model and it derives implications for the stock market price index, the exchange rate and the interest rate. Economic globalization needs to be politically managed and through the Transatlantic Banking Crisis and the Euro Crisis the need to more carefully draw the rules of the game for financial globalization has been highlighted. Unstable financial markets have a large potential to undermine social market economies and social security systems. The rising income inequalities within countries raise more policy challenges for Europe than for the US.
This book presents a cutting-edge analysis of the economic effects and challenges of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with a special focus on EU sanctions on Russian energy and Ukraine’s political relationship with the European Union in a global context. Welfens outlines key macroeconomic perspectives on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting in particular how sanctions posed by the international community will have a wider economic impact than what has so far been envisaged. The book discusses the effects of Russian gas supply boycotts against Western countries as well as global effects of an EU energy import boycott on Russia, especially for China and the Asian continent. An innovative proposal to cut electricity prices is presented. It also explores the challenges to relations between the EU, China and Russia caused by the invasion, the effects of the unfolding refugee crisis (within a post-Brexit EU), military and humanitarian aid pledges to Ukraine, and the risks of reduced multilateralism within the world economy as a direct result of the war. The book also analyses the risks and benefits of potential enlargement of the EU to integrate Ukraine as a member state. The topics covered by the book are all set within a long-run view of diplomatic and economic relations between the West, Russia and Ukraine. The factors analysed here provide a new, broader picture of the international effects of the conflict, as well as its potential implications for policy design as we enter a new global order marked by the Russo-Ukrainian war. The book will be of interest to researchers and policy-makers working in international economics, new political economy, European politics and integration, and macroeconomics more broadly.
This book considers climate change from an economic and international policy perspective. It argues that an emissions trading systems (ETS) should first be adopted in all G20 countries with those national ETS then integrated into a global ETS. The topic of global warming is at the forefront of international discussions, especially given recent environmental policy changes in the US under Presidents Trump and Biden and the emergence of the Fridays For Future movement. Combatting climate change does not necessitate a trade-off between economic growth and climate policy provided that the latter is consistently linked to new economic policy. Policymakers should support innovation, effective redistribution policies and modern mobility concepts. Moreover, there are crucial links between financial market dynamics and price dynamics in ETS. If measures discussed here are coordinated effectively in the EU/G20, and at the global level, then climate neutrality could be achieved.
This book takes a new look at the golden age in neoclassical growth theory and explores in detail sustainability and optimum growth in China, the US and Europe. Innovation, foreign direct investment, trade and growth dynamics are key elements in modern economies – including perspectives on green growth and aspects of the knowledge production function in the context of multinational companies. As such the book considers the role of foreign direct investment in a modified growth model and discusses innovation in an enhanced Mundell-Fleming macro model. Moreover, for the first time it directly links a knowledge production function to the macro production function in a broader context, including real money balances in the production function. It shows – also with empirical relevance – that FDI inward stocks relative to the GDP of host countries, the number of researchers and per capita income are relevant drivers of new knowledge and the stock of knowledge, respectively. This new Schumpeterian theoretical approach lends itself to important policy conclusions for both OECD members and newly industrialized countries.
This book analyzes how the EU referendum in the United Kingdom came to pass and what the foreseeable consequences are for the UK, Europe, US and world economy. The Brexit decision represents a momentous event for Europe, which weakens the EU and shifts the global balance of power. Welfens argues the EU has lost its appeal and is not in keeping with the twenty-first century, which is being shaped by Asia and digital innovations. The subject of immigration from EU countries played a key role in the Brexit decision, with an anti-EU campaign that was profoundly biased. The estimated impact of the referendum was deeply distorted by the broadly inadequate information produced by the Cameron government, which omitted the expected 10 percent loss in income caused by leaving the EU. With this this information, there could have been a clear pro-EU majority. In the absence of a second referendum, one cannot know what the British electorate really wants. Both the Brexit decision and new President of the United States Donald Trump's approach to European disintegration dynamics also raise serious questions about the future of transatlantic relations.
Deregulation, privatization and internationalization of the telecommunications industry has brought about enormous changes within both the European and world economy. The dynamics of the Internet and the recent wave of innovations in the telecommunications and computer industry have given rise to new opportunities for entrepreneurship, employment and growth. No doubt, the dynamics and imperfections of today`s information markets raise crucial challenges for Western Europe. The changing patterns of innovation in the digital economy have forced governments to consider new strategies to promote innovation, network effects and growth. In response to these developments this text presents new approaches to macroeconomic modelling, growth theory and trade analysis. Still further, the deregulation policies of OECD-countries are analyzed. An indispensible text for academics and professionals who want to deepen their knowledge of how the New Economy revolution continues to change the economy.
There are many issues relating to the new economy in Europe and the USA that are unexplored. Here, the authors present innovative theoretical and empirical analysis on Internet dynamics, productivity growth and organizational changes in selected OECD countries. New empirical findings related to telecommunications, Internet and growth also are presented. Based on the theoretical and empirical analyses, various policy options are developed. Policy measures, both at the regional and national levels, can stimulate structural change, knowledge diffusion and economic growth. Different governance strategies for the Internet and e-commerce are identified from a global perspective.
Paul J.J. Welfens and Holger C. Wolf While the economies of Asia and, more recently, South as well as North America have enjoyed sustained high growth, the growth performance of western Europe and in particular continental Europe has been rather modest. Coupled with sizable improvements in labor productivity and - at best - steady capital productivity, growth proved insufficient to sustain employment levels, much less to replicate the US job creation success. Relative inflation performance has been much better: in the run-up to European Monetary Union inflation rates have dramatically converged towards the lower end of the distribution while risk premia on formerly high inflation economies have fallen. Yet, looking forward, the undoubted success in achieving price stability is mitigated by the lackluster growth -and in particular employment -performance. Indeed, the relative little attention paid to initiatives directed at raising economic growth is startling, not only in the light of the US policy record but also in light of the remarkable rebound of those European economies which have aggressively tackled the structural problems, most prominently the UK and Ireland.
Russia and many other transition countries are now facing the challenges of opening up, restructuring, and modernizing their economies, which requires addressing numerous institutional weaknesses and supply-side distortions. From a regional perspective, drawing on the experience of other reforming countries, the papers examine these issues. Aspects addressed include the implications of trade and capital flows, the process of labor market reform, financial market development, productivitiy growth, and innovation dynamics. The dynamics of the reform process are also studied in the context of new political economy models.
Modern macroeconomics suffers from an unclear link between short-term Keynesian analysis and long-term growth modelling. This book presents a new link between monetary analysis and growth modelling in open economies. Structural change, innovations and growth are considered from a new perspective. With respect to economic policy - in particular innovation policy - the analysis implies major changes, concerning both EU countries and other leading OECD economies.
After a decade of sharp economic decline, Russia switched to an impressive period of economic growth. Yet the economic record is still mixed, and many key problems remain unresolved, both in the economic sphere and the political system. The focus is on economic dynamics in Russia, reasons for its hesitant opening up process as well as the special role of the natural resources sector which is expected to continue to grow. This analysis highlights the existing deficiencies of the Russian economic system and raises doubts about the sustainability of growth. Twin focus is on required reforms and endogenous forces that impair liberalizing trade and investment in an orderly way. Russian discussions on WTO and other international topics are reflected.
Structural change, economic growth and adequate exchange rate adjustment are key challenges in the context of EU eastern enlargement as are consistent macroeconomic policies. The authors focus on sectoral adjustment across industries in catching-up countries and explain changes in the composition of output – this includes new aspects of the Chenery model. They describe and analyze the spatial pattern of specialization and adjustment in many countries. Theoretical and empirical analysis of foreign direct investment, innovation and structural change shed new light on economic dynamics in Old Europe and New Europe. As regards exchange rate dynamics both traditional aspects (such as the Balassa-Samuelson effect) and new approaches to understanding exchange rate developments are presented. Links between exchange rate changes and innovation are particularly emphasized.
Europe's economic and political landscape is changing dramatically. The demise of the socialist CMEA and the USSR has allowed eastern European economies to open up and caused Russia/the CIS to engage in a series of difficult reforms which have been supported by the G-7 and the International Monetary Fund plus the World Bank on the one hand, and, on the other hand, by the EU and the EBRD. While some of the (early) Visegrad countries apparently were rather successful in their transition attempt, systemic transition approaches in other countries - Romania and Bulgaria - and, above all, in Russia largely were a failure. Economic hardship, social unrest, political radicalization and the international spreading of criminal activities can be identified as problems from the failure of Russia's first transition attempt. This book deals - from an international perspective - with the postsocialist countries in Europe, i. e. there is a focus on eastern enlargement and on Russia on the one hand, on the other hand the topic is which international influences and effects will emerge from EU enlargement and the Russian transition. While chapter A exclusively deals with major problems of eastern enlargement and the policy options for dealing with this difficult problem, chapter B is devoted to the Russian transformation crisis. There the analysis has a focus on Russia in its own right but also on the potential negative spillovers of a Russian transformation disaster which could occur in the late 1990s.
The creation of the European Central Bank and the Euro have brought new challenges to EU integration and economic policy. This book looks into issues of monetary and factor market policies. The analysis also presents new theoretical and empirical research on the - transitory - decline of the Euro. Issues of exchange rate policy and international economic relations also are addressed.
The complex challenge of economic recovery and reconstruction in the Balkans is looked at in this book. The Balkan Stability Pact stands for a networked approach of international organizations to deal with these problems. This analysis critically looks into strategies, actors, and preliminary results. There are shortcomings and inconsistencies and there is some potential for transatlantic conflicts over the issue of burden sharing. There is also a risk of EU imperial overstretch facing eastern and south-eastern EU enlargement.
Economic globalization is a complex phenomenon where the links between social security expenditures and globalization are not well understood so far. This study summarizes new key findings and highlights new theoretical insights in the field of social security systems, labor standards, taxation and economic globalization. Moreover, new thoughts on the links between social security systems and migration as well as between free trade areas and social market economy development are presented. The book analyzes the role of a changing age dependency using a Branson model and it derives implications for the stock market price index, the exchange rate and the interest rate. Economic globalization needs to be politically managed and through the Transatlantic Banking Crisis and the Euro Crisis the need to more carefully draw the rules of the game for financial globalization has been highlighted. Unstable financial markets have a large potential to undermine social market economies and social security systems. The rising income inequalities within countries raise more policy challenges for Europe than for the US.
Financial capital, whether mediated through the financial market or Foreign Direct Investment has been a key factor in European economic growth. This book examines the interaction between European and global financial integration and analyses the dynamics of the monetary sector and the real economy in Europe. The key analytical focus is on the theoretical and empirical dynamics of financial markets in Europe, however, it also provides regional case studies of key institutional developments and lessons from foreign direct investment. There is a broad range of findings for Central, Eastern and Western Europe as well as EU Partner Countries. Crucially the analysis includes new approaches and options for solving the transatlantic banking crisis and suggests policy innovations for a world with unstable financial markets.
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