John Taylor is one of the foremost economists of our generation. His ideas were implemented in central banks across the world during the period of price stability, economic growth and financial stability that followed the 1980s. Of course, this period culminated in the financial crisis of 2008, which was followed by a very slow recovery, which, eight years on, can hardly be said to be complete. This short book presents Taylor’s view of the financial crisis and its aftermath as expressed in the 2014 F. A. Hayek Memorial Lecture. He believes that the rules-based monetary policy that he espoused broke down in the run-up to the crisis and afterwards. Furthermore, other aspects of policy became erratic and discretionary to the point that the rule of law could be said to be under threat. According to the author, these problems contributed to the crisis and to the slow recovery – indeed, they were a major cause. Two commentaries follow John Taylor’s lecture. One is by Patrick Minford and the other is by the Bank of England’s Chief Economist Andrew Haldane and Amar Radia. Both recognise Taylor’s immense contribution to economic theory and policy. The commentaries are themselves an important contribution and they are followed by a response from John Taylor which addresses the issues raised by the commentators.
Rational Expectations Macroeconomics is the second edition of Rational Expectations and the New Macroeconomics by Patrick Minford and David Peel. Under the sole authorship of Profesor Minford, this new dition represents a practical introduction to the principles and applications of rational expectations (RE) methods in macroeconomics for third year undergraduates and postgraduates. The author sets out to provide a basic working knowledge of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) by demonstrating in full various methods for solving RE models. The book then deals with policies and issues frequently encountered when applying these models including: stabilization policy, fiscal policy, the political economy of democracy and the Phillips curve. Finally, the author turns to methods of testing the REH. By the end of the book, students should be in a position to apply RE models to whatever economy they are concerned with. Professor Minford has updated the text extensively and included new chapters on representatitve agent models (increasingly used in a applied forecasting and policy analysis) and modelling the open economy. In the decade since the first edition of this classic text was written, the economics profession′s respect for the REH has only increased. The author′s introductory and concluding chapters place the REH research programme in its historical context, assess the current state of the debate and look ahead to future research in this important subject.
This timely book sets out a shrewd and comprehensive policy programme, for both ‘microeconomic’ supply-side settings of tax and regulatory systems, and ‘macroeconomic’ policies for fiscal and monetary policies to regulate demand and support the supply-side growth agenda.
This is a newly revised second edition of a key macroeconomic textbook. After explaining the historical development of the subject, they show how rational expectations are handled in macro models. The importance of structural micro-founded models is explained, with key examples of such structural models examined in detail and with extensions to the open economy; policy implications are highlighted throughout. Methods for testing these models against macro data behaviour are explained, detailing the latest evidence on these models' success.
Amidst the debates about ‘austerity’ a number of vital debates in public finance have been sidelined. Because the reductions in government spending – small though they have been so far- have been designed to reduce the government’s borrowing requirement, there has been little discussion of whether the size of the state should be reduced in order to facilitate long-run reductions in the burden of taxation. This book traces the history of the growth of the size of the state over the last 100 years whilst also making international comparisons. There is a particular focus on recent and projected future developments which shows that, though the total level of government spending has not decreased significantly in recent years, there has been a big redirection of spending from some areas to others. The authors then examine the evidence on the relationship between taxation and economic growth. As well as reviewing recent literature, they also undertake new modelling that higher taxes are detrimental for growth. In the final part of the book, the whole UK tax system is reconsidered in a proper economic framework. The UK has one of the world’s most complex tax systems and its incoherence has increased over the last five years. Sweeping reforms are proposed to the system which wold involve abolishing around 20 taxes and the development of a simple, predictable tax system based on principles that should gain wide acceptance.
Placed in the context of the upcoming referendum, this second edition brings up to date a thorough review of all economic aspects of the UK's membership of the EU. It notes the intention of the EU to move to 'ever closer union' and the nature of the regulatory and general economic philosophy of its dominant members, whose position is enforced by qualified majority voting. The book highlights the UK’s dilemma that, while extending free markets to its local region is attractive, this European philosophy and closer union are substantially at odds with the UK's traditions of free markets and freedom under the common law. This comprehensive examination of the economic costs and benefits of membership uses state-of-the-art modeling methods and includes estimates of its net costs as a percentage of GDP. The book explains how the decision to leave would follow from a judgement on the political economy of the EU as compared with that of the UK. It details the misconceptions involved in much of the debate about trade with the EU, and argues that the key issue is not access to markets but rather the prices at which trade takes place. Covered in careful detail is the economics of the UK’s trade with the EU in the key sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, and services.
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