How do you count a nation of more than 250 million peopleâ€"many of whom are on the move and some of whom may not want to be counted? How can you obtain accurate population information for apportioning the House of Representatives, allocating government resources, and characterizing who we are and how we live? This book attempts to answer these questions by reviewing the recent census operations and ongoing research and by offering detailed proposals for ways to improve the census.
The U.S. census, conducted every 10 years since 1790, faces dramatic new challenges as the country begins its third century. Critics of the 1990 census cited problems of increasingly high costs, continued racial differences in counting the population, and declining public confidence. This volume provides a major review of the traditional U.S. census. Starting from the most basic questions of how data are used and whether they are needed, the volume examines the data that future censuses should provide. It evaluates several radical proposals that have been made for changing the census, as well as other proposals for redesigning the year 2000 census. The book also considers in detail the much-criticized long form, the role of race and ethnic data, and the need for and ways to obtain small-area data between censuses.
This volume examines the Census Bureau's program of research and development of the 2000 census, focusing particularly on the design of the 1995 census tests. The tests in 1995 should serve as a prime source of information about the effectiveness and cost of alternative census design components. The authors concentrate on those aspects of census methodology that have the greatest impact on two chief objectives of census redesign: reducing differential undercount and controlling costs. Primary attention is given to processes for data collection, the quality of population coverage and public response, and the use of sampling and statistical estimation.
At the request of the U.S. Census Bureau, the National Research Council's Committee on National Statistics established the Panel on Research on Future Census Methods to review the early planning process for the 2010 census. This new report documents the panel's strong support for the major aims of the Census Bureau's emerging plan for 2010. At the same time, it notes the considerable challenges that must be overcome if the bureau's innovations are to be successful. The panel agrees with the Census Bureau that implementation of the American Community Survey and, with it, the separation of the long form from the census process are excellent concepts. Moreover, it concurs that the critically important Master Address File and TIGER geographic systems are in dire need of comprehensive updating and that new technologies have the potential to improve the accuracy of the count. The report identifies the risks and rewards of these and other components of the Census Bureau's plan. The report emphasizes the need for the bureau to link its research and evaluation efforts much more closely to operational planning and the importance of funding for a comprehensive and rigorous testing program before 2010.
Planning for the 2020 census is already beginning. This book from the National Research Council examines several aspects of census planning, including questionnaire design, address updating, non-response follow-up, coverage follow-up, de-duplication of housing units and residents, editing and imputation procedures, and several other census operations. This book recommends that the Census Bureau overhaul its approach to research and development. The report urges the Bureau to set cost and quality goals for the 2020 and future censuses, improving efficiency by taking advantage of new technologies.
The usefulness of the U.S. decennial census depends critically on the accuracy with which individual people are counted in specific housing units, at precise geographic locations. The 2000 and other recent censuses have relied on a set of residence rules to craft instructions on the census questionnaire in order to guide respondents to identify their correct "usual residence." Determining the proper place to count such groups as college students, prisoners, and military personnel has always been complicated and controversial; major societal trends such as placement of children in shared custody arrangements and the prevalence of "snowbird" and "sunbird" populations who regularly move to favorable climates further make it difficult to specify ties to one household and one place. Once, Only Once, and in the Right Place reviews the evolution of current residence rules and the way residence concepts are presented to respondents. It proposes major changes to the basic approach of collecting residence information and suggests a program of research to improve the 2010 and future censuses.
This final report of the Panel on Alternative Census Methodologies provides an assessment of the Census Bureau's plans for the 2000 census as of the time of the 1998 census dress rehearsal. It examines changes in census plans following, and to a modest extent in reaction to, the panel's second interim report, regarding the use of sampling for nonresponse follow-up, construction of the master address file, use of multiple response modes and respondent-friendly questionnaires, and the use of administrative records. It also describes evaluation plans for the census dress rehearsal and plans for data collection and experimentation during the 2000 census. Most of the results from the dress rehearsal were not yet available to the panel, so this report does not offer any suggested changes to 2000 census plans in response to the dress rehearsal.
This volume contains the full text of two reports: one is an interim review of major census operations, which also assesses the U.S. Census bureau's recommendation in March 2001 regarding statistical adjustment of census data for redistricting. It does not address the decision on adjustment for non-redistricting purposes. The second report consists of a letter sent to William Barron, acting director of the Census Bureau. It reviews the new set of evaluations prepared by the Census Bureau in support of its October decision. The two reports are packaged together to provide a unified discussion of statistical adjustment and other aspects of the 2000 census that the authoring panel has considered to date.
For the past 50 years, the Census Bureau has conducted experiments and evaluations with every decennial census involving field data collection during which alternatives to current census processes are assessed for a subset of the population. An "evaluation" is usually a post hoc analysis of data collected as part of the decennial census processing to determine whether individual steps in the census operated as expected. The 2010 Program for Evaluations and Experiments, known as CPEX, has enormous potential to reduce costs and increase effectiveness of the 2020 census by reducing the initial list of potential research topics from 52 to 6. The panel identified three priority experiments for inclusion in the 2010 census to assist 2020 census planning: (1) an experiment on the use of the Internet for data collection; (2) an experiment on the use of administrative records for various census purposes; and (3) an experiment (or set of experiments) on features of the census questionnaire. They also came up with 11 recommendations to improve efficiency and quality of data collection including allowing use of the Internet for data submission and including one or more alternate questionnaire experiments to examine things such as the representation of race and ethnicity.
Following several years of testing and evaluation, the American Community Survey (ACS) was launched in 2005 as a replacement for the census "long form," used to collect detailed social, economic, and housing data from a sample of the U.S. population as part of the decennial census. During the first year of the ACS implementation, the Census Bureau collected data only from households. In 2006 a sample of group quarters (GQs)-such as correctional facilities, nursing homes, and college dorms-was added to more closely mirror the design of the census long-form sample. The design of the ACS relies on monthly samples that are cumulated to produce multiyear estimates based on 1, 3, and 5 years of data. The data published by the Census Bureau for a geographic area depend on the area's size. The multiyear averaging approach enables the Census Bureau to produce estimates that are intended to be robust enough to release for small areas, such as the smallest governmental units and census block groups. However, the sparseness of the GQ representation in the monthly samples affects the quality of the estimates in many small areas that have large GQ populations relative to the total population. The Census Bureau asked the National Research Council to review and evaluate the statistical methods used for measuring the GQ population. This book presents recommendations addressing improvements in the sample design, sample allocation, weighting, and estimation procedures to assist the Census Bureau's work in the very near term, while further research is conducted to address the underlying question of the relative importance and costs of the GQ data collection in the context of the overall ACS design.
The Panel on Research on Future Census Methods has a broad charge to review the early planning process for the 2010 census. Its work includes observing the operation of the 2000 census, deriving lessons for 2010, and advising on effective evaluations and tests. This is the panel's third report; they have previously issued an interim report offering suggestions on the Census Bureau's evaluation plan for 2000 and a letter report commenting on the bureau's proposed general structure for the 2010 census.
This volume examines the Census Bureau's program of research and development of the 2000 census, focusing particularly on the design of the 1995 census tests. The tests in 1995 should serve as a prime source of information about the effectiveness and cost of alternative census design components. The authors concentrate on those aspects of census methodology that have the greatest impact on two chief objectives of census redesign: reducing differential undercount and controlling costs. Primary attention is given to processes for data collection, the quality of population coverage and public response, and the use of sampling and statistical estimation.
How do you count a nation of more than 250 million peopleâ€"many of whom are on the move and some of whom may not want to be counted? How can you obtain accurate population information for apportioning the House of Representatives, allocating government resources, and characterizing who we are and how we live? This book attempts to answer these questions by reviewing the recent census operations and ongoing research and by offering detailed proposals for ways to improve the census.
This final report of the Panel on Alternative Census Methodologies provides an assessment of the Census Bureau's plans for the 2000 census as of the time of the 1998 census dress rehearsal. It examines changes in census plans following, and to a modest extent in reaction to, the panel's second interim report, regarding the use of sampling for nonresponse follow-up, construction of the master address file, use of multiple response modes and respondent-friendly questionnaires, and the use of administrative records. It also describes evaluation plans for the census dress rehearsal and plans for data collection and experimentation during the 2000 census. Most of the results from the dress rehearsal were not yet available to the panel, so this report does not offer any suggested changes to 2000 census plans in response to the dress rehearsal.
The Panel on Research on Future Census Methods was formed to examine alternative designs for the 2010 census and to assist the Census Bureau in planning tests and analyses to help assess and compare the advantages and disadvantages of them. Designing the 2010 Census: First Interim Report, examines whether the auxiliary information that is planned to be collected (and retained) during the 2000 census could be augmented to help guide the Census Bureau in its assessment of alternative designs for the 2010 census.
Following several years of testing and evaluation, the American Community Survey (ACS) was launched in 2005 as a replacement for the census "long form," used to collect detailed social, economic, and housing data from a sample of the U.S. population as part of the decennial census. During the first year of the ACS implementation, the Census Bureau collected data only from households. In 2006 a sample of group quarters (GQs)-such as correctional facilities, nursing homes, and college dorms-was added to more closely mirror the design of the census long-form sample. The design of the ACS relies on monthly samples that are cumulated to produce multiyear estimates based on 1, 3, and 5 years of data. The data published by the Census Bureau for a geographic area depend on the area's size. The multiyear averaging approach enables the Census Bureau to produce estimates that are intended to be robust enough to release for small areas, such as the smallest governmental units and census block groups. However, the sparseness of the GQ representation in the monthly samples affects the quality of the estimates in many small areas that have large GQ populations relative to the total population. The Census Bureau asked the National Research Council to review and evaluate the statistical methods used for measuring the GQ population. This book presents recommendations addressing improvements in the sample design, sample allocation, weighting, and estimation procedures to assist the Census Bureau's work in the very near term, while further research is conducted to address the underlying question of the relative importance and costs of the GQ data collection in the context of the overall ACS design.
The census coverage measurement programs have historically addressed three primary objectives: (1) to inform users about the quality of the census counts; (2) to help identify sources of error to improve census taking, and (3) to provide alternative counts based on information from the coverage measurement program. In planning the 1990 and 2000 censuses, the main objective was to produce alternative counts based on the measurement of net coverage error. For the 2010 census coverage measurement program, the Census Bureau will deemphasize that goal, and is instead planning to focus on the second goal of improving census processes. This book, which details the findings of the National Research Council's Panel on Coverage Evaluation and Correlation Bias, strongly supports the Census Bureau's change in goal. However, the panel finds that the current plans for data collection, data analysis, and data products are still too oriented towards measurement of net coverage error to fully exploit this new focus. Although the Census Bureau has taken several important steps to revise data collection and analysis procedures and data products, this book recommends further steps to enhance the value of coverage measurement for the improvement of future census processes.
Planning for the 2020 census is already beginning. This book from the National Research Council examines several aspects of census planning, including questionnaire design, address updating, non-response follow-up, coverage follow-up, de-duplication of housing units and residents, editing and imputation procedures, and several other census operations. This book recommends that the Census Bureau overhaul its approach to research and development. The report urges the Bureau to set cost and quality goals for the 2020 and future censuses, improving efficiency by taking advantage of new technologies.
For the past 50 years, the Census Bureau has conducted experiments and evaluations with every decennial census involving field data collection during which alternatives to current census processes are assessed for a subset of the population. An "evaluation" is usually a post hoc analysis of data collected as part of the decennial census processing to determine whether individual steps in the census operated as expected. The 2010 Program for Evaluations and Experiments, known as CPEX, has enormous potential to reduce costs and increase effectiveness of the 2020 census by reducing the initial list of potential research topics from 52 to 6. The panel identified three priority experiments for inclusion in the 2010 census to assist 2020 census planning: (1) an experiment on the use of the Internet for data collection; (2) an experiment on the use of administrative records for various census purposes; and (3) an experiment (or set of experiments) on features of the census questionnaire. They also came up with 11 recommendations to improve efficiency and quality of data collection including allowing use of the Internet for data submission and including one or more alternate questionnaire experiments to examine things such as the representation of race and ethnicity.
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