Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability's Books

Making Climate Forecasts Matter

By: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability

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Making Climate Forecasts Matter

El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.

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189

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

030917340X

ISBN 13

9780309173407

Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3

Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data

By: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Center for Economic, Governance, and International Studies,Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change,Panel to Review CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3: Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data

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Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3

Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data

This study offered an independent peer review for a synthetic document being produced for the CCSP. It found the draft document to be in a fairly early stage of development and noted several issues needing attention in the revision. The draft was inconsistent across sections with respect to whether or not it accepted two assumptions: that more skillful forecasts necessarily have greater value, and that the most useful form of information is a projected future value of an outcome parameter with an uncertainty distribution. Available scientific evidence gives reason to question these assumptions, and the draft did not discuss the evidence. Among other issues needing attention, the review called for the revised draft to do more to substantiate its claims of the potential benefits of knowledge-action networks and to give more careful consideration to the appropriate balance of roles between governmental and private efforts.

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National Academies Press

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030911568X

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9780309115681

Making Climate Forecasts Matter

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Making Climate Forecasts Matter

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190

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309064759

ISBN 13

9780309064750

Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling

By: National Research Council,Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Panel on Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling

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Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling

By: National Research Council,Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Panel on Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling

Information derived from climate modeling has become increasingly important in recent years. More and more we understand that climate variability and change impacts society and that dealing with climate-related disasters, conflicts, and opportunities requires the best possible information about the past, present, and future of the climate system. To this end, Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling describes ways to improve the efficacy of the U.S. climate modeling enterprise, given the current needs and resources. It discusses enhanced and stable resources for modeling activities, focused and centralized operational activities, how to give researchers access to the best computing facilities, the creation of a common modeling and data infrastructure, and research studies on the socioeconomic aspects of climate and climate modeling.

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145

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309072573

ISBN 13

9780309072571

Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change

A Science Strategy

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Panel on Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales

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Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change

A Science Strategy

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources,Panel on Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales

Society today may be more vulnerable to global-scale, long-term, climate change than ever before. Even without any human influence, past records show that climate can be expected to continue to undergo considerable change over decades to centuries. Measures for adaption and mitigation will call for policy decisions based on a sound scientific foundation. Better understanding and prediction of climate variations can be achieved most efficiently through a nationally recognized "dec-cen" science plan. This book articulates the scientific issues that must be addressed to advance us efficiently toward that understanding and outlines the data collection and modeling needed.

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160

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309174031

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9780309174039

Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3

Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data

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Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3

Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data

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030911568X

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9780309115681

Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate

By: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change,Panel on Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support

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Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate

Everyone-government agencies, private organizations, and individuals-is facing a changing climate: an environment in which it is no longer prudent to follow routines based on past climatic averages. State and local agencies in particular, as well as the federal government, need to consider what they will have to do differently if the 100-year flood arrives every decade or so, if the protected areas for threatened species are no longer habitable, or if a region can expect more frequent and more severe wildfires, hurricanes, droughts, water shortages, or other extreme environmental events. Both conceptually and practically, people and organizations will have to adjust what may be life-long assumptions to meet the potential consequences of climate change. How and where should bridges be built? What zoning rules may need to be changed? How can targets for reduced carbon emissions be met? These and myriad other questions will need to be answered in the coming years and decades. Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate examines the growing need for climate-related decision support-that is, organized efforts to produce, disseminate, and facilitate the use of data and information in order to improve the quality and efficacy of climate-related decisions. Drawing on evidence from past efforts to organize science for improved decision making, it develops guidance for government agencies and other institutions that will provide or use information for coping with climate change. This volume provides critical analysis of interest to agencies at every level, as well as private organizations that will have to cope with the world's changing climate.

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200

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309137373

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9780309137379

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.

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593

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Cambridge University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1107025060

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9781107025066

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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593

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Cambridge University Press

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1107025060

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9781107025066

Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources,Climate Research Committee,Panel on Reconciling Temperature Observations

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Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change

An overall increase in global-mean atmospheric temperatures is predicted to occur in response to human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping "greenhouse gases." The most prominent of these gases, carbon dioxide, has increased in concentration by over 30% during the past 200 years, and is expected to continue to increase well into the future. Other changes in atmospheric composition complicate the picture. In particular, increases in the number of small particles (called aerosols) in the atmosphere regionally offset and mask the greenhouse effect, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. Many in the scientific community believe that a distinctive greenhouse-warming signature is evident in surface temperature data for the past few decades. Some, however, are puzzled by the fact that satellite temperature measurements indicate little, if any, warming of the lower to mid-troposphere (the layer extending from the surface up to about 8 km) since such satellite observations first became operational in 1979. The satellite measurements appear to be substantiated by independent trend estimates for this period based on radiosonde data. Some have interpreted this apparent discrepancy between surface and upper air observations as casting doubt on the overall reliability of the surface temperature record, whereas others have concluded that the satellite data (or the algorithms that are being used to convert them into temperatures) must be erroneous. It is also conceivable that temperatures at the earth's surface and aloft have not tracked each other perfectly because they have responded differently to natural and/or human-induced climate forcing during this particular 20-year period. Whether these differing temperature trends can be reconciled has implications for assessing: how much the earth has warmed during the past few decades, whether observed changes are in accord with the predicted response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere based on model simulations, and whether the existing atmospheric observing system is adequate for the purposes of monitoring global-mean temperature. This report reassesses the apparent differences between the temperature changes recorded by satellites and the surface thermometer network on the basis of the latest available information. It also offers an informed opinion as to how the different temperature records should be interpreted, and recommends actions designed to reduce the remaining uncertainties in these measurements.

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101

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

0309068916

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9780309068918

Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis

Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

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Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis

Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It considers in situ and remote observations; paleoclimate information; understanding of climate drivers and physical, chemical, and biological processes and feedbacks; global and regional climate modelling; advances in methods of analyses; and insights from climate services. It assesses the current state of the climate; human influence on climate in all regions; future climate change including sea level rise; global warming effects including extremes; climate information for risk assessment and regional adaptation; limiting climate change by reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions and reducing other greenhouse gas emissions; and benefits for air quality. The report serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with the latest policy-relevant information on climate change. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

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2410

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Cambridge University Press

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ISBN 10

1009175351

ISBN 13

9781009175357

Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

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Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the scientific literature relevant to climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies, and integrates across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences. It emphasizes how efforts in adaptation and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can come together in a process called climate resilient development, which enables a liveable future for biodiversity and humankind. The IPCC is the leading body for assessing climate change science. IPCC reports are produced in comprehensive, objective and transparent ways, ensuring they reflect the full range of views in the scientific literature. Novel elements include focused topical assessments, and an atlas presenting observed climate change impacts and future risks from global to regional scales. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

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3070

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Cambridge University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1009445383

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9781009445382

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

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The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

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1807

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Cambridge University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1009178466

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9781009178464

The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

An Assessment of Vulnerability

By: Robert T. Watson,Marufu C. Zinyowera,Richard H. Moss

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The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

An Assessment of Vulnerability

By: Robert T. Watson,Marufu C. Zinyowera,Richard H. Moss

The degree to which human conditions and the natural environment are vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is a key concern for governments and the environmental science community worldwide. This book from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the best available base of scientific information for policymakers and public use. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability reviews state-of-the-art information on potential impacts of climate change for ecological systems, water supply, food production, coastal infrastructure, human health, and other resources for ten global regions. It also illustrates that the increasing costs of climate and climate variability, in terms of loss of human life and capital due to floods, storms, and droughts, are a result of the lack of adjustment and response in society's policies and use of resources. This book points to management options that would make many sectors more resilient to current variability in climate and thus help these sectors adapt to future changes in climate. This book will become the primary source of information on regional aspects of climate change for policymakers, the scientific community, and students.

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528

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Cambridge University Press

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ISBN 10

0521634555

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9780521634557

Facilitating Climate Change Responses

A Report of Two Workshops on Knowledge from the Social and Behavioral Sciences

By: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change,Panel on Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change Through the Behavioral and Social Sciences

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Facilitating Climate Change Responses

A Report of Two Workshops on Knowledge from the Social and Behavioral Sciences

The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, understanding the need for policy makers at the national level to entrain the behavioral and social sciences in addressing the challenges of global climate change, called on the National Research Council to organize two workshops to showcase some of the decision-relevant contributions that these sciences have already made and can advance with future efforts. The workshops focused on two broad areas: (1) mitigation (behavioral elements of a strategy to reduce the net future human influence on climate) and (2) adaptation (behavioral and social determinants of societal capacity to minimize the damage from climate changes that are not avoided). Facilitating Climate Change Responses documents the information presented in the workshop presentations and discussions. This material illustrates some of the ways the behavioral and social sciences can contribute to the new era of climate research.

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174

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309160324

ISBN 13

9780309160322

Advancing the Science of Climate Change

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change

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Advancing the Science of Climate Change

By: National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change

Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.

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527

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309155924

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9780309155922

Decision Making for the Environment

Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities

By: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Center for Economic, Governance, and International Studies,Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change,Panel on Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities for Environmental Decision Making

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Decision Making for the Environment

Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities

By: National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Center for Economic, Governance, and International Studies,Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change,Panel on Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities for Environmental Decision Making

With the growing number, complexity, and importance of environmental problems come demands to include a full range of intellectual disciplines and scholarly traditions to help define and eventually manage such problems more effectively. Decision Making for the Environment: Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities is the result of a 2-year effort by 12 social and behavioral scientists, scholars, and practitioners. The report sets research priorities for the social and behavioral sciences as they relate to several different kinds of environmental problems.

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296

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National Academies Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0309165393

ISBN 13

9780309165396

Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems

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Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems

The 1997 Conference on the World Climate Research Programme to the Third Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change concluded that the global capacity to observe the Earth's climate system is inadequate and is deteriorating worldwide. As a result, the chair of the subcommittee of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) requested a National Research Council study to assess the current status of the climate observing capabilities of the United States. This report focuses on existing observing systems for detection and attribution of climate change, with special emphasis on those systems with long time series.

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National Academies Press

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ISBN 10

030918455X

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9780309184557

Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II.

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Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II.

Some issues addressed in this Working Group III volume are mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, managing biological carbon reservoirs, geo-engineering, costing methods, and decision-making frameworks.

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1054

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Cambridge University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0521015006

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9780521015004

Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change

Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: James P. Bruce,Hoesung Lee,Erik F. Haites

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Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change

Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

By: James P. Bruce,Hoesung Lee,Erik F. Haites

Large, irreversible changes in climate may have a major effect on the economies of the world. The social costs of climate change will vary dramatically from country to country. This landmark assessment from Working Group III of the IPCC addresses the costs of climate change, both in terms of society and equity issues, and the economic burden of combating adverse climate change. The editors assess the response options, the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to climate change, and the costs faced by the many countries committed to limit greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2000. This exhaustive analysis will be invaluable for the international community of policy makers concerned with the consequences of climate change.

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458

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Cambridge University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0521560519

ISBN 13

9780521560511

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